Each week of the NFL season, I’ll be posting my thoughts about the upcoming NFL games from a Survivor Pool perspective. In a previous blog post entitled 'NFL Survivor Pool Picks - General Tips and Advice', I outlined some common Suicide pool pitfalls and how to avoid them. In these weekly posts, I’ll attempt to apply those tips to each week’s NFL games … although, as you’ll see, and as they said in Pirates of The Caribbean, that advice “is more what you'd call ‘guidelines’ than actual rules”.

My plan for these posts is to discuss NFL team picks that are the Survivor Pool favorites across a variety of internet sources. I’ll be discussing the teams I think are viable, attractive picks for the week and those that, while popular picks for the week, you might be best to avoid. I won’t be telling you to avoid picking perennial NFL bottom-dwellers like the Browns, Lions, and Rams each week. I would hope that avoiding such teams is fairly obvious. Instead, I will try to dissuade you from certain teams that week that throw up red flags for one reason or another.

So without further ado, here are my thoughts for Week 1 of the NFL Survivor season:

You’ve probably noticed, but Week 1 is not the easy start to the season most Suicide Pool members would hope for. As of this posting, there isn’t an NFL team favored by more than a touchdown in Week 1. That is something that didn’t happen even once in the entire 2009 NFL season, and is certainly cause for concern this week. As mentioned in my Survivor Pool Tips post, the first few weeks often results in lots of eliminations due to teams over- or under-performing versus the previous season. All indicators are this is a tough Survivor week.

Attractive Picks for Week 1

Tennessee Titans (vs. Raiders) – The Titans are a very popular pick this week. On the down side, they are only a 6.5 point favorite at home against a team that went 5-11 last year. Additionally, the Titans are ranked in the bottom half of the league in most preseason power rankings and started the 2009 season with 6 straight losses. While the Raiders have a good shot to improve this year, they are still a mess. I think it will take some time for Jason Campbell to mesh with the offense. Look for Jeff Fisher to find a way to pull out this game at home.

San Diego (@ Kansas City) – I’m breaking a bunch of my Survivor Pool guidelines recommending San Diego this week. I try to avoid divisional opponents AND I hate picking teams on the road. However, the Chiefs ranked 30th in defense in 2009 and the Chargers offense still looks good despite the absence of Vincent Jackson. If rookie RB Ryan Mathews can help protect Philip Rivers, the Chargers (-5 on the road) will take this primetime Monday night game. In their division, you’ll certainly be able to use them at home later in the season, but you’ve got to get past this week first.
 
NY Giants (vs. Carolina) – I don’t love this pick, but the Giants have some serious payback to dish out this week. The Panthers beat the Giants 41-9 in Week 17 last year, not only embarrassing them in the final game at their old stadium but eliminating them from the Playoffs. If that doesn’t motivate the Giants, I’m not sure anything will. My main concern with the Giants is how lousy their defense was last year playing against an explosive Panthers running game.  However, the Giants, specifically Eli Manning, play well at home before the temperature drops and I expect them to prevail in a close game.

Picks to Avoid in Week 1

Chicago (vs. Detroit) – Yes, the Lions only have two wins in the last two seasons. Wow, two wins in two seasons! However, all signs point to the Lions really improving for 2010. That’s not to say they’ll be lighting the league on fire, but the potential is there. To me, it’s very telling that the Bears (-6)  aren’t favored by more at home in this game … against a team that has two wins in two seasons! Keep in mind that Jay Cutler is only 24-29 as a starter in the NFL and this is certainly a significant division rivalry.

Arizona (@ St. Louis) – The Cardinals certainly aren’t the awful Cardinals of old, but the loss of Kurt Warner and some serious indecision and dissention at the QB position don’t breed a lot of confidence. The Cardinals have much more attractive games to use them for this year, including home games against Oakland, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis again.

Miami (@ Buffalo) – This is where I redeem myself by dissuading you from taking a divisional rival on the road. While Buffalo may very well be the worst team in the league this year, I don’t see any reason to waste a Miami pick this week. You’ll be better off holding on to them and using them in home games late in the season against Cleveland, Detroit, or (if necessary) Buffalo again.

My Week 1 Pick

If another viable option exists, I avoid picking the consensus team. Unfortunately, I can’t do that in this tough week. For me, the decision came down to San Diego and Tennessee and I based my pick on future opportunities to use each team. San Diego will be a viable pick in numerous home game weeks due to their weak division. The Titans are in a much tougher division, aren’t likely to be as strong a team, and overall are tied with the Texans for the toughest schedule in the league this year. Let’s get Tennessee out of the way this week.

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