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The Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) meet the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) in the AFC Championship game of the playoffs on Sunday, January 29, 2023 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have the 16th-ranked defense this year (21.7 points allowed per game), and they’ve been better on offense, ranking best with 29.2 points per game. The Bengals rank seventh in the NFL with 26.1 points per contest, but they’ve been carried by their defense, which ranks fifth-best by surrendering just 20.1 points per contest.
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Chiefs vs. Bengals Picks
Right now, 69.6% of BetterPool users are picking the Bengals to upset the Chiefs, with 63.6% picking the Bengals to cover the 1.5-point spread on Sunday.
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Game Info: Chiefs vs. Bengals
- Game Day: Sunday, January 29, 2023
- Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Kansas City, Missouri
- Stadium: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite against Cincinnati on Sunday and the total has been set at 47.5 points. Keep reading for some betting trends and insights before making an informed wager on the game.
Betting Insights for Chiefs
- The Chiefs compiled a 7-10-0 ATS record in the regular season, and are 0-1-0 in the playoffs.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread five times this season (5-10 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites (regular season and playoffs).
- In the regular season, the combined scoring went over the point total eight times in Chiefs games. In the postseason, it’s been zero of one.
Stats & Insights for Chiefs
- The Chiefs have the 11th-ranked defense this season (328.2 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking best with 413.6 yards per game.
- The Chiefs rank 16th in scoring defense this year (21.7 points allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the other side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 29.2 points per game.
- The Chiefs rank 18th in pass defense this season (220.9 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on offense, ranking best in the NFL with 297.8 passing yards per game.
- On offense, the Chiefs rank 20th in the NFL with 115.9 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank eighth in rushing yards allowed per contest (107.2).
- Offensively, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking second-best in the NFL by averaging a 48.7% third-down conversion rate. They rank 13th on defense (38.3% third-down conversion rate allowed).
- The Chiefs have the 11th-ranked defense this season in terms of yards per play (5.5 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking best with 6.6 yards per play.
- With 20 forced turnovers (20th in NFL) against 23 turnovers committed (17th in NFL), the Chiefs (-3) own the 22nd-ranked turnover margin in the league.
Best Players for Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes II: 5,250 PASS YDS / 308.8 YPG / 67.1% / 41 TD / 12 INT / 61 CAR / 358 RUSH YDS / 4 TD
- Isiah Pacheco: 170 CAR / 830 YDS / 48.8 YPG / 5 TD / 13 REC / 130 YDS / 7.6 YPG / 0 TD
- Travis Kelce: 110 REC / 1,338 YDS / 78.7 YPG / 12 TD
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 78 REC / 933 YDS / 58.3 YPG / 3 TD
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 42 REC / 687 YDS / 40.4 YPG / 2 TD
- Chris Jones: 44 TKL / 17 TFL / 15.5 SACK / 4 PD
- Nick Bolton: 180 TKL / 9 TFL / 2 SACK / 2 INT / 3 PD
- L’Jarius Sneed: 108 TKL / 5 TFL / 3.5 SACK / 3 INT / 11 PD
Betting Insights for Bengals
- The Bengals covered 12 times in 16 games with a spread in the regular season. The team is 1-1-0 ATS in the playoffs.
- The Bengals have covered the spread three times in the regular season and playoffs (3-0 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs.
- A total of six Bengals games hit the over during the regular season. Meanwhile, one of two games have topped the total in the postseason.
Stats & Insights for Bengals
- From an offensive angle, the Bengals are posting 360.5 total yards per game (eighth-ranked). They rank 16th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (335.7 total yards given up per game).
- The Bengals rank seventh in the NFL with 26.1 points per contest, but they’ve been lifted up by their defense, which ranks fifth-best by allowing only 20.1 points per contest.
- The Bengals’ passing attack has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank fifth-best in the NFL with 265 passing yards per contest. In terms of defense, they are surrendering 229.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 23rd.
- The Bengals’ running game has not been getting things done, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL with 95.5 rushing yards per game. They have been more effective defensively, allowing 106.6 rushing yards per contest (seventh-ranked).
- The Bengals’ third-down defense ranks 20th in the NFL with a 39.6% third-down conversion rate allowed, but they’ve been led by their offense, which ranks third-best by putting up a 46.1% third-down rate.
- The Bengals rank 12th in the NFL with 5.7 yards per play on offense, and they rank 13th with 5.6 yards ceded per play on defense.
- The Bengals have produced 24 forced turnovers (11th in NFL) and committed 18 turnovers (fourth in NFL) this season for a +6 turnover margin that ranks sixth in the NFL.
Best Players for Bengals
- Joe Burrow: 4,475 PASS YDS / 279.7 YPG / 68.3% / 35 TD / 12 INT / 75 CAR / 257 RUSH YDS / 5 TD
- Joe Mixon: 210 CAR / 814 YDS / 58.1 YPG / 7 TD / 60 REC / 441 YDS / 31.5 YPG / 2 TD
- Samaje Perine: 95 CAR / 394 YDS / 24.6 YPG / 2 TD / 38 REC / 287 YDS / 17.9 YPG / 4 TD
- Ja’Marr Chase: 87 REC / 1,046 YDS / 87.2 YPG / 9 TD
- Tee Higgins: 74 REC / 1,029 YDS / 64.3 YPG / 7 TD
- Tyler Boyd: 58 REC / 762 YDS / 47.6 YPG / 5 TD
- Trey Hendrickson: 32 TKL / 6 TFL / 8 SACK / 3 PD
- Logan Wilson: 123 TKL / 3 TFL / 2.5 SACK / 1 INT / 4 PD
- Vonn Bell: 77 TKL / 4 TFL / 1 SACK / 4 INT / 8 PD
