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As I write this, Aaron Rodgers, Derk Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Geno Smith are all, in one way or another, on the market. Where and when these guys sign will profoundly impact the 2023 NFL Draft.
Whether or not Smith stays in Seattle is probably the lynchpin to the first round of this draft. If he moves, and I think he will, the QB shuffle kicks in.
I think Carr will sign with the Jets, and Smith with either the Bucs or the Steelers. I think the Raiders will trade ahead of time for Rodgers, giving up their first-rounder and a bunch more.
On top of this, I think we will see at least two more trades in the first round. Based on that, here’s how I think the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft could shake out.
| #1. (TRADE) CHI->SEA | Seahawks shock the world, trade up, and draft QB Bryce Young, ALB |
| #2 HOU | Texans stay put and draft OSU QB CJ Stroud |
| #3 ARZ | Cardinals get a gift in uber-talented ALB EDGE, Will Anderson Jr |
| #4 IND | Chargers take the best OL on the board, OT Anton Harrison, OKL, sign Jimmy G |
| #5 (TRADE) SEA->CHI | Bears take the best DB off the board: PSU CB, Joey Porter |
| #6 DET | Lions select defensive BPA in ORE CB Christian Gonzalez |
| #7 (TRADE) LV-> GB | Packers use the Rodgers trade to take OT Paris Johnson, OSU |
| #8 ATL | Falcons take athletic DL Myles Murphy, ALB |
| #9 CAR | Panthers select QB Anthony Richardson from FLA |
| #10 PHI | Eagles reach a bit for CB Devon Witherspoon, ILL, and it works |
| #11 TEN | Titans take WR Jordan Addison, USC, then sign QB Baker Mayfield |
| #12 (TRADE) HOU->DET | Lions move up to select S Brian Branch, ALB |
| #13 NYJ | Jets add another weapon with TE Michael Mayer, ND |
| #14 NE | Patriots select a playmaker for their new QB, WR Quentin Johnston, TCU |
| #15 GB | Packers select ARK LB Drew Sanders, then get a WR in the 2nd round |
| #16 WAS | Commanders, at a loss, reach for QB Tanner McKee, STA |
| #17 PIT | Steelers draft unsexy OL anchor in OT Brockerick Jones, GEO |
| #18 (TRADE) DET->HOU | Texans stretch a touch for CB Deonte Banks, MAR |
| #19 TBY | Bucs draft smart and take Kelee Ringo, CB from GEO |
| #20 (TRADE) SEA->CHI | Bears cash in their second trade pick for weapon/WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| #21 LAC | Jaguars’ young QB needs options; TE Luke Musgrave from ORE |
| #22 BAL | Ravens go D with CB Cam Smith from SCU |
| #23 MIN | Vikings take first RB off the board in Bijan Robinson, TEX |
| #24 JAX | Saints draft QB of the future in Hendon Hooker, TEN |
| #25 NYG | Giants add another field stretcher in WR Jalin Hyatt, TEN |
| #26 DAL | Cowboys shore up the rush with EDGE BJ Ojulari, LSU |
| #27 BUF | Bills add to DL rotation with DL Keion White, GT |
| #28 CIN | Bengals add EDGE as Luke Van Ness, IOW slips to them |
| #29 NO | Saints take RB Zach Evans, OLE MISS |
| #30 PHI | Eagles add punch to a potent ground game with OG Cody Mauch, NDSU |
| #31 KC | Chiefs make it 3 RBs in 1st round drafting Jahmyr Gibbs, ALB |
| BONUS PICK #32 PIT | Steelers turn de facto 1st rounder into OT Darnell Wright, TEN |
That’s me picking two shock trades, 5 QBs, 5 ALB players, and an early run on OL.
