{"id":30610,"date":"2022-08-05T19:37:39","date_gmt":"2022-08-05T19:37:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=30610"},"modified":"2022-08-20T16:55:30","modified_gmt":"2022-08-20T16:55:30","slug":"nfl-win-total-bets-a-surefire-lock-for-each-division","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2022\/08\/05\/nfl-win-total-bets-a-surefire-lock-for-each-division\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Win Total Bets: A Surefire Lock For Each Division"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Alex Lauzon from the \u201c<\/em>Course of Life<\/em><\/a>\u201d podcast<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Redzone. Jim Nantz. Sunday spreads. Tailgating. All the gloriousness of the NFL is at our doorstep. I\u2019m overly ready to have the next six months of Sundays planned out for me and I imagine you are as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With that, let\u2019s set the scene for teams that are creating a lot of buzz this offseason \u2013 whether it be a new look QB, coaching staff, or building on momentum from last season, the NFL storylines are aplenty this training camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hot summer is in full effect, and football is officially on the horizon once the win totals have been released. Upon first pass through the league, there\u2019s team win total numbers that stick out, some that seem just right, and a few that are probably due for adjustment based on how August looks who emerges as the team\u2019s quarterback. While it\u2019s nice to get in early on released lines, there\u2019s also some learning to be done in training camp as teams prep to understand what their 2022 campaign will look like on the field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the picks, here\u2019s where my head is at and what you can look for in forecasting NFL win totals this season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Schedule flow: With the expanded 17 game regular season, the long haul from September to January is a grind, and when strings of games do or don\u2019t favor the team you\u2019re betting on, it needs to be noted. Schedule difficulty are useful, but not mandatory pieces of information to follow your bets, but be sure to check a team\u2019s difficulty of schedule and where their \u201ctough spot\u201d is. Almost every team has a \u201cbrutal road stretch\u201d or a tough back to back late in the year that could lead to a tailspin.<\/li>
  2. Who\u2019s running the show: In case you\u2019re just tuning in \u2013 the coaching staff and quarterback of NFL teams run the ship, especially in an even more pass happy league than ever before. They will either take you to the Promised Land or sink your ship, no in between. Part of betting win totals is forecasting the season the team\u2019s QB and his projected performance based on the team\u2019s schedule. Assessing durability, ability to keep stats going all season long and their offseason development are all key. Teams with uncertain QB rooms and new or flipped coaching staffs are red flags when betting a team\u2019s win total.<\/li>
  3. What\u2019s changed: On that note – out of any of the major sports, the NFL arguably produces the most turnover season to season. If a team\u2019s win total has dropped or risen dramatically from their 2021 performance, it\u2019s a tell tale sign of massive turnover on the roster, which fuels uncertainty more than anything. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Let\u2019s tap into that knowledge bank and find some win total gems in each division for the upcoming NFL season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    AFC East<\/h2>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    (AP Photo\/Steven Senne)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    New England Patriots \u2013 Over\/Under 8.5 wins<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    The lowest win total for the Patriots in my memory. The facts are that Bill Belichick has had one season with less than 9 wins in his 20+ years as coach. If you want to bet on it happening again with an improved Mac Jones and defense, best of luck against that trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Play: OVER 8.5 wins<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    AFC West<\/h2>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    (AP Photo\/David Zalubowski)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Denver Broncos \u2013 Over\/Under 10 wins<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    I\u2019m precociously buying a ticket on the Russell Wilson hype train in Denver, but to get them past their aggressive team total in the trickiest division in football? They had 7 wins last year, and whose to say how much better his protection and environment truly will be versus Seattle? While Russell Wilson will do him, it won\u2019t lead to more than 10 wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Play: UNDER 10 wins<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    AFC North<\/h2>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    (AP Photo\/David Richard)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Cleveland Browns \u2013 Over\/Under 9.5 wins<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Knowing now that DeShaun Watson\u2019s suspension is 6 games, I\u2019m hard pressed to see the Brownies getting to double digits behind Jacoby Brissett or Joshua Dobbs\u2026eek. With a tricky schedule to start they\u2019ll be behind the 8 ball on getting to 10 wins this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Play: UNDER 9.5 wins<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    AFC South<\/h2>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    (AP Photo\/David J. Phillip)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Houston Texans – Over\/Under 4.5 wins<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    I will absolutely talk myself into taking the over on the lowest total on the board. The Texans got to 4 wins last year, and were competitive in a slew of other close losses. The schedule is not unbearable to start, and they\u2019re always known to play spoiler in their division late in the year. They\u2019ll have opportunities at home to do that and get to 5 wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Play: OVER 4.5 wins<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NFC East<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    (AP Photo\/Alex Brandon)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Washington Commanders \u2013 Over\/Under 8 wins<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Carson Wentz in DC will be a hot heap of garbage. I\u2019m lying harder on this take than anything else I\u2019m predicting this fall. What good is a moderately efficient check down artist when everything around is toxic in all the wrong ways? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Play: UNDER 8 wins<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NFC West<\/h2>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    (AP Photo\/Ted S. Warren)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Seattle Seahawks \u2013 Over\/Under 5.5 wins<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    I love me some bottom feeder over bets. Hear me out \u2013 while Drew Lock and or Geno Smith are far from long term solutions, this team is not going to razzle dazzle with flair. They\u2019ll do it with consistency, ground and pound, and an improved defense. They\u2019re home field advantage is one of the best in the algue, and thei schedule starts soft with an opportunity to be 2-2 or 3-3 early on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Play \u2013 OVER 5.5 wins <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NFC North<\/h2>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    (AP Photo\/Andy Clayton-King)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Minnesota Vikings \u2013 Over\/Under 9 wins<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cThis is finally Kirk Cousins\u2019 team\u201d is the echoing through Vikings camp. I\u2019m not interested in wagering on an overpriced QB that\u2019s shown no signs of life in recent memory. They made some incremental signings on D but I have zero faith in this offense getting them near double digit wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Play: UNDER 9 wins<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NFC South<\/h2>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    (AP Photo\/Chris Carlson)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Carolina Panthers \u2013 Over\/Under 6.5 wins<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Baker Mayfield is not and will not be an elite QB, but what he can do is function an offense better than enough QB\u2019s to be a starter. He gets his second chance in Carolina, a team with some decent downfield threats that makes a solid fit. No doubt there will be bumps and bruises along the way, but 7 wins are very attainable. Plus, Baker opens the season against his old team at home in week one to kick off the party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Play: OVER 6.5 wins<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    By Alex Lauzon from the \u201cCourse of Life\u201d podcast Redzone. Jim Nantz. Sunday spreads. Tailgating. All the gloriousness of the NFL is at our doorstep. I\u2019m overly ready to have the next six months of Sundays planned out for me and I imagine you are as well. With that, let\u2019s set the scene for teams […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":30611,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[977,805,976],"class_list":["post-30610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football","tag-fantasy","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-predictions"],"yoast_head":"\nNFL Win Total Bets: A Surefire Lock For Each Division | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Looking for a sure-bet way to win your NFL season wagers? Then look no further. Here are our predictions for each division.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2022\/08\/05\/nfl-win-total-bets-a-surefire-lock-for-each-division\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NFL Win Total Bets: A Surefire Lock For Each Division | The Poolside Post\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Looking for a sure-bet way to win your NFL season wagers? Then look no further. 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