Every week in the NFL, nothing makes any damn sense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s why we love it. It\u2019s why we can\u2019t get off the intravenous drip. It\u2019s why we’re compelled to watch garbage teams playing in prime time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But there comes a time in every fan’s life where they need something to make some semblance of sense. That’s why on Fridays, I\u2019ll be looking at the upcoming week\u2019s toss-up games ATS, according to RunYourPool VIP data (which you can sign up to access with a VIP account here<\/a>). I\u2019ll throw some numbers at you, they\u2019ll make sense, and then we\u2019ll all win our pools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Importantly, too, I\u2019ll start every subsequent week\u2019s column with a look at the previous week\u2019s results and hold myself accountable so I can be mocked on Twitter. It\u2019s important to stand by your principles, after all. <\/p>\n\n\n\n DVOA data from <\/em>Football Outsiders<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Team grades data from <\/em>Pro Football Focus<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) – 52%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – 48%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I get what you\u2019re thinking here: it\u2019s a divisional game, the Raiders seem to have figured out how to deal with Patrick Mahomes<\/a>, and the perception is that they can keep pace in a high-scoring game. Sorry folks, that’s wrong. The Chiefs are eighth in overall DVOA and just put up 41 points on the fourth-best defense in football a week ago. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is 22nd in DVOA and their offense consists (much like the Rams) of targeting a single receiver 8,082 times a game and hoping one of them will break through a two-deep shell. Meanwhile, the Raiders and the Buccaneers are similar in offensive DVOA and even if the Raiders score four or five touchdowns they\u2019ll still be two possessions behind. This is an easy swing for the Chiefs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you think Josh McDaniels has any sort of logical plan for this?<\/p>\n\n\n\nRaiders @ Chiefs<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n