{"id":41833,"date":"2022-10-14T18:45:31","date_gmt":"2022-10-14T18:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=41833"},"modified":"2022-10-14T18:45:34","modified_gmt":"2022-10-14T18:45:34","slug":"nfl-week-six-ats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2022\/10\/14\/nfl-week-six-ats\/","title":{"rendered":"FRIDAY@4: NFL WEEK 6 ATS"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every week in the NFL, nothing makes any damn sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s why we love it. It\u2019s why we can\u2019t get off the intravenous drip. It\u2019s why we\u2019re compelled to watch garbage teams playing in prime time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there comes a time in every fan\u2019s life when they need something to make some semblance of sense. That\u2019s why on Fridays, I\u2019ll be looking at the upcoming week\u2019s toss-up games ATS, according to RunYourPool VIP data (which you can sign up to access with a VIP account <a href=\"https:\/\/play.articles.runyourpool.com\/ryp-vip\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a>). I\u2019ll throw some numbers at you, they\u2019ll make sense, and then we\u2019ll all win our pools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Importantly, too, I\u2019ll start every subsequent week\u2019s column with a look at the previous week\u2019s results and hold myself accountable so I can be mocked on Twitter. It\u2019s important to stand by your principles, after all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>DVOA data from <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.footballoutsiders.com\/stats\/nfl\/team-efficiency\/2022\/regular\"><strong><em>Football Outsiders<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Team grades data from <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pff.com\/\"><strong><em>Pro Football Focus<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-last-week-1-2-1\">Last Week: 1-2-1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, nobody succeeds in <a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2022\/10\/07\/friday4-nfl-week-5-ats\/\">their first go-round<\/a>, right? Just ask Matt Rhule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I\u2019d like to add the only \u201creal culture of winning\u201d David Tepper has is a 11-27 record. He was so certain about his Matt Rhule hire that he gave a $62 million, 7-year contract. That experiment ended horribly, and that\u2019s 100 percent on Tepper. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cqJGHhhJks\">https:\/\/t.co\/cqJGHhhJks<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Keenan Betz (@surebetkeenan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/surebetkeenan\/status\/1579654978813460480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 11, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first edition of Friday@4 used a bunch of math, analytics, and logic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results went about as well as a Bears goal-to-go throw. (Sorry not sorry, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=GrifRy00,GrifRy01&amp;search=Ryan+Griffin&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Ryan Griffin<\/a>.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not only that, all but one of my bonus underdog picks straight-up lost. An inauspicious start, I\u2019ll admit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week, though! This week, things are gonna change. We\u2019ve only got two toss-up games for Week 6, but they\u2019re both fascinating. In theory, at least. Much like every football fan over the age of 40, we\u2019re gonna throw those scary numbers away and just go with our GUT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bucs @ Steelers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>+8.5 Pittsburgh Steelers <\/strong><strong><\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong>48%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>-8.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 52%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Y\u2019all, come on now. This shouldn\u2019t be a toss-up! Sure, the Bucs&#8217; offense essentially sat out the second half of last week against the Falcons. It\u2019s the Falcons. The Steelers are, for all intents and purposes, even worse. This line should reasonably be -9.5. Do you know what fuels men to over-perform and show off their true love (<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=EvanMi00,EvanMi20,EvanMi21&amp;amp;search=Mike+Evans&amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Mike Evans<\/a>) in front of millions of people? A bitter, contentious divorce. That, and the vagaries of tattoo removal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">It seems Gisele B\u00fcndchen is ready to do more permanent changes in her life, including changing this tattoo she&#39;s had for years. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GKmZZ9bELR\">https:\/\/t.co\/GKmZZ9bELR<\/a><\/p>&mdash; SheKnows (@SheKnows) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SheKnows\/status\/1579139147272400898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/B\/BradTo00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Tom Brady<\/a> is 9-3 against the Steelers for his career, though this is the first time he\u2019ll face them as a Buccaneer. Does that matter? Should it? We\u2019re going with our gut, people. It\u2019s Brady against a rookie making his second career start. Don\u2019t overthink it. It\u2019ll be double-digits by halftime and you can switch over to\u2026Bengals-Saints, maybe? The early slate kind of sucks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The F@4 Pick: TB -8.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bills @ Chiefs<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>-2.5 Buffalo Bills 49%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>+2.5 Kansas City Chiefs 51%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the big one, people. The rematch. We know the story here, no need to recap it; unless you\u2019re <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/K\/KelcTr00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Travis Kelce<\/a>, of course, who just three days ago showed his own four-touchdown prowess (on 97% fewer yards, no less).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Travis Kelce is the first player in NFL history with 4 receiving touchdowns of fewer than 10 yards in a single game.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Chiefs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Chiefs<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ChiefsKingdom?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#ChiefsKingdom<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tkelce?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@tkelce<\/a><\/p>&mdash; NFL Research (@NFLResearch) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NFLResearch\/status\/1579672700012081152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 11, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unlike our previous entry, this game 100% deserves its toss-up status. So many <a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2022\/10\/11\/most-absurd-narratives-nfl-week-6\/\">narratives<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Revenge game<\/li><li>Home-field advantage<\/li><li>Chiefs without <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/H\/HillTy00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Tyreek Hill<\/a><\/li><li><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/D\/DaviGa01.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Gabriel Davis<\/a><\/li><li>Playoff preview<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The folks at The Ringer have a delightful <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/nfl\/2022\/10\/14\/23403727\/bills-chiefs-game-plans-schemes\">schematic breakdown<\/a> of these two teams if you\u2019re into that sort of thing. After a bunch of discussion and stats thrown around\u2026 it\u2019s still a toss-up. Can the Bills figure out <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/MahoPa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Patrick Mahomes<\/a>? Does <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=AlleJo02,AlleJo03,AlleJo00&amp;search=Josh+Allen&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Josh Allen<\/a> somehow figure out how to throw a 101-yard touchdown pass? Does any of it matter when we just suffered through this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Bears defense held the Commanders to 214 yards, 12 points and a 2-for-11 effort on third downs. And lost.<\/p>&mdash; Dan Wiederer (@danwiederer) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/danwiederer\/status\/1580762902172405760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barring unforeseeable tragedy in the form of Jackson Mahomes donating $10K to 4chan during pregame warmups, this should be the most entertaining, explosive, shorts-wetting bonanza of a game we\u2019ve yet had this season. The bar\u2019s set pretty high, and we\u2019ve been let down before, but I feel confident with my gut here: I buy into the revenge angle, shutting down the fans at Mile High by putting the home team in a 20-point second-half hole that finally buries them. This result, by the way, creates a \u201cRevenge: The Return\u201d narrative for the post-season. You\u2019re welcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The F@4 Pick: BUF -2.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Friday Fifth:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Cardinals (36.8) and the Seahawks (42.0) have the two worst-graded pass coverage units in the league, and face off this week. 63% of RYP VIPs pick Arizona -3.5, in Seattle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every week in the NFL, nothing makes any damn sense. It\u2019s why we love it. It\u2019s why we can\u2019t get off the intravenous drip. It\u2019s why we\u2019re compelled to watch garbage teams playing in prime time. But there comes a time in every fan\u2019s life when they need something to make some semblance of sense. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":41846,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FRIDAY@4: NFL WEEK 6 ATS | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With only two ATS toss-up games this week, we look at Tampa-Pittsburgh and Buffalo-Kansas City and where you should lay your pick.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2022\/10\/14\/nfl-week-six-ats\/\" 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