{"id":42189,"date":"2022-10-21T12:31:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-21T12:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=42189"},"modified":"2022-10-23T12:31:34","modified_gmt":"2022-10-23T12:31:34","slug":"friday4-nfl-week-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2022\/10\/21\/friday4-nfl-week-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday@4: NFL Week 7"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every week in the NFL, nothing makes any damn sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s why we love it. It\u2019s why we can\u2019t get off the intravenous drip. It\u2019s why we\u2019re compelled to watch garbage teams playing in prime time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there comes a time in every fan\u2019s life when they need something to make some semblance of sense. That\u2019s why on Fridays, I\u2019ll be looking at the upcoming week\u2019s toss-up games ATS, according to RunYourPool VIP data (which you can sign up to access with a VIP account <a href=\"https:\/\/play.articles.runyourpool.com\/ryp-vip\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a>). I\u2019ll throw some numbers at you, they\u2019ll make sense, and then we\u2019ll all win our pools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Importantly, too, I\u2019ll start every subsequent week\u2019s column with a look at the previous week\u2019s results and hold myself accountable so I can be mocked on Twitter. It\u2019s important to stand by your principles, after all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>DVOA data from <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.footballoutsiders.com\/stats\/nfl\/team-efficiency\/2022\/regular\"><strong><em>Football Outsiders<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Team grades data from <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pff.com\/\"><strong><em>Pro Football Focus<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Last Week: 1-2-1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This Season: 2-3-1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If there\u2019s anything certain so far through a third of the NFL season, it\u2019s that the Carolina Panthers are 100% done with attempting to win football games. Case in point: they only sacked <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/S\/StafMa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Matthew Stafford<\/a> once, despite Stafford having less effective protection than a Catholic overnight summer camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Joe Noteboom suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in the Rams\u2019 Week 6 win over the Panthers.  <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zzz4QtcAuS\">https:\/\/t.co\/zzz4QtcAuS<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheRamsWire\/status\/1582084630890545156?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 17, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even though the Panthers of Carolina would get a serious tussle from the Panthers of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.maxpreps.com\/il\/ofallon\/ofallon-panthers\/football\/\">O\u2019Fallon Township High School<\/a> (7-1, 10th-ranked in Illinois), our RYP VIPs are overwhelmingly choosing them to cover a 10.5-point spread against the once-mighty Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These people seemingly forget that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/B\/BradTo00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Tom Brady<\/a> hasn\u2019t yet deployed his \u201cf*ck you mode, which is likely after being embarrassed by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/T\/TrubMi00.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mitchell Trubisky<\/a>, of all people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, we\u2019ve got another two solid toss-up games this week, marking the first appearance of \u201cMr. Simplify,\u201d <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/R\/RodgAa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Aaron Rodgers<\/a>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-packers-jets\">Packers @ Jets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>-5.5 Green Bay Packers 50%<br>+5.5  Washington Commanders 50%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A no-bull coin flip between the Jets and the Packers. This is what we\u2019ve come to, people. Rodgers has failed to show he can elevate the offense around him, ranking 12th in both defense-adjusted yards above replacement and quarterback DVOA. He\u2019s currently essentially replacement-level in total QB value and value per play. He\u2019s not actively hurting the offense on every play (we see you, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/F\/FielJu00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Justin Fields<\/a>) but he\u2019s not adding much, at 0.013 EPA (expected points added)\/play. For reference, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/S\/SmitGe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Geno Smith<\/a> puts up 0.180 EPA\/play, about fourteen times higher. Green Bay\u2019s defense hasn\u2019t held up their end, either, coming in 24th in overall defensive DVOA and appearing in their own <a href=\"https:\/\/rbsdm.com\/stats\/stats\/\">lonesome island<\/a>, exceedingly better than whatever the Lions think is defense but closer to the New York squads and the Jaguars than anyone else in the league:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/Sqs6klCRtt_OFoQiximnJOxlhXi1Hx1u4oUF6sv28iBzmhMKR6c6jg7sNSGYuR0oUyNZf89dhJzRL9TUNF3RwPNUU2i9jjM8xiNVKry7KShzXwC8Nx-UQKEF4Xm-_fglOeLw-0LXgPxCiRtqRDbfhs3-95kxk3NtnuFcXRCifjPRTHfhm6jxujsKlg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elsewhere in the Lower Potomac Basin, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/H\/HeinTa00.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Taylor Heinicke<\/a> will be taking over quarterback duties, subbing in for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/W\/WentCa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Carson Wentz<\/a>. Wentz fractured his ring finger and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, but are we 100% sure this is a downgrade for the Commanders? Washington\u2019s defense ranks a respectable 11th in DVOA, which can keep them in games, and Heineke is significantly more consistent than Wentz; I can see this game coming down close at the end, Rodgers somehow finding <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/T\/TourSa00.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Samori Toure<\/a> (yeah, that\u2019s a real receiver) for a 30-yard gain and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/C\/CrosMa20.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Mason Crosby<\/a> nailing a game-winner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The F@4 Pick: WAS +5.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-giants-jaguars\">Giants @ Jaguars<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>+2.5 New York Giants 48%<br>-2.5 Jacksonville Jaguars 50%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ringer staff writer Ben Solak, who apparently is some sort of 12-year-old football <em>wunderkind<\/em>, put together an amazing piece this week on Giants head coach Brian Daboll and how his team has found beauty (and wins) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/nfl\/2022\/10\/19\/23412153\/new-york-giants-hot-start-brian-daboll-daniel-jones-saquon-barkley\">in chaos<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seriously, look at this guy. I aged another ten years watching this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">?Episode 5 of THE PLAY SHEET?<br><br>?: Not all bad coaching decisions are analytics!<br>?: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sumersports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@sumersports<\/a> nerd <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SeanfromSeabeck?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@SeanfromSeabeck<\/a> on how 4th down calls happen<br>?: Cone coverage and Davante Adams&#39; (almost) game-winning TD<br>?: Tom Brady&#39;s bad football<br><br>Full episode: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ROcAFEOu9S\">https:\/\/t.co\/ROcAFEOu9S<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0BXzZ09RJY\">pic.twitter.com\/0BXzZ09RJY<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BenjaminSolak\/status\/1580604600381579266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 13, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Giants have impressed, found exciting and different ways to win games (kind of like a Bizarro Chargers), and this week head down to Duval to take on the AFC\u2019s kings of chaos. The Jags scored 21 points against the Eagles, and lost; they scored six against the Texans and lost. Oh, and let\u2019s not forget, they scored 38 on the aforementioned Chargers and won! The only thing more chaotic than the First Coast Pumas was DraftKings refusing to refund their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/H\/HerbJu00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Justin Herbert<\/a> boost from Monday night.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Y\u2019all know what I\u2019m talking about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a matchup of an immovable clown show and an unstoppable calamity, I believe in my heart of hearts it comes down to what the talking heads call \u201cplaymakers.\u201d<br><br>The Giants, of course, have <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/B\/BarkSa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Saquon Barkley<\/a> and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/J\/JoneDa05.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Daniel Jones<\/a>. What, you say? I didn\u2019t say they had to be good plays. The Jaguars roll a little deeper with <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/R\/RobiJa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">James Robinson<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/E\/EtieTr00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Travis Etienne<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/K\/KirkCh01.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Christian Kirk<\/a>, and the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft, proud Damn Good Dawg and 2026 Defensive Player of the Year, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/W\/WalkTr03.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\">Travon Walker<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/44Ytw?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@44Ytw<\/a> stole this ball right outta the air!! ? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jaguars?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Jaguars<\/a><br><br>?: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/JAXvsWAS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#JAXvsWAS<\/a> on FOX<br>?: Stream on NFL+ <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mY4ew2vyFN\">https:\/\/t.co\/mY4ew2vyFN<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qPsDoJXD2q\">pic.twitter.com\/qPsDoJXD2q<\/a><\/p>&mdash; NFL (@NFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NFL\/status\/1569049206601707520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 11, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes, I&#8217;m a Georgia homer, and I&#8217;ll never be ashamed of it; I have more spiritual trauma from that stadium than most people. At TIAA Bank Field, all logic is already out the window. When in doubt and chaos is in the forecast, never doubt Florida Man.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The F@4 Pick: JAX -2.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Friday Fifth:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The Cleveland Browns have the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footballoutsiders.com\/stats\/nfl\/team-defense\/2022\/regular\">highest-graded offense<\/a> in the NFL through Week 6.<\/li><li>The Philadelphia Eagles are the <a href=\"https:\/\/premium.pff.com\/nfl\/teams\/2022\/REGPO\">second-worst-tackling defense<\/a> in the NFL through Week 6.<\/li><li>Samari Toure posted a 46-898-5 line in his lone season at Nebraska.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"und\" dir=\"ltr\">?? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/samori_toure?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@samori_toure<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ShrineBowl?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#ShrineBowl<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HuskerFBNation?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@HuskerFBNation<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hNdxYODFlu\">https:\/\/t.co\/hNdxYODFlu<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/m4zWIRF3OG\">pic.twitter.com\/m4zWIRF3OG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; East-West Shrine Bowl (@ShrineBowl) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ShrineBowl\/status\/1512118058285948928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 7, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every week in the NFL, nothing makes any damn sense. It\u2019s why we love it. It\u2019s why we can\u2019t get off the intravenous drip. It\u2019s why we\u2019re compelled to watch garbage teams playing in prime time. But there comes a time in every fan\u2019s life when they need something to make some semblance of sense. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":29598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Friday@4: NFL Week 7 | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2022\/10\/21\/friday4-nfl-week-7\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Friday@4: NFL Week 7 | The Poolside Post\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Every week in the NFL, nothing makes any damn sense. It\u2019s why we love it. It\u2019s why we can\u2019t get off the intravenous drip. It\u2019s why we\u2019re compelled to watch garbage teams playing in prime time. But there comes a time in every fan\u2019s life when they need something to make some semblance of sense. 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