Pro Football Focus<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nLast Week: 1-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This Season: 3-4-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019d like to take this space to offer my sincere condolences for the (exceedingly) long and (manufactured) storied career of one Tom Brady. Against a team that couldn\u2019t hold a fourth-quarter lead if you duct-taped it to their face, after expressing Memento-level short-term amnesia on offense following their first two drives, the Bucs slowly bled out over the final thirty minutes, prompting an absolute joy-inducing line from Ryan Fitzpatrick:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“I didn’t want to say it, but this offense is just broken.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s enjoy the ride for the rest of the season, y\u2019all. I can\u2019t wait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, Week 8 has presented us with three juicy toss-up nuggets, so get your bibs ready and let\u2019s dive in!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bengals @ Browns<\/h2>\n\n\n\n -3.5<\/strong> <\/strong>Cincinnati Bengals<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>50%<\/strong>+3.5 <\/strong><\/strong> Cleveland Browns<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong>50%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe obvious: Ja\u2019marr Chase is now on injured reserve, which flat-out sucks unless you\u2019re a fan of another AFC North squad. He\u2019s an S-tier talent, no question. The Bengals still can\u2019t run the football effectively (Joe Mixon is 33rd in DYAR, the team is 20th in rushing DVOA and 19th in offensive line success, so on and so forth), the pass protection is in the league\u2019s bottom third. However, and this is important against the Browns, Cincinnati is 10th in defensive DVOA against the run\u2026and 20th in run defense overall grade (56.0).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Browns, meanwhile, have Nick Chubb and David Njoku, and Amari Cooper remembering he\u2019s one of the fifteen best overall wide receivers in the NFL. Miles Garrett is still playing angry. I get why this is a toss-up, even after Burrow went for 481 against the Falcons, so here\u2019s what it comes down to for me:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Prime time divisional game, in Cleveland<\/li> Chase\u2019s injury and the flexibility of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in the scheme<\/li> The very real possibility Chubb has 30-plus carries and the game is close entering the fourth quarter<\/li> The very real alternate possibility the Bengals have a double-digit lead entering the fourth quarter from facing a mediocre-to-bad Cleveland pass defense, and the Browns aren\u2019t built to play from behind<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\nI do think the Browns will slow things down, grind out drives with Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and keep it close, making the Joe Cool reach for a late-game towel or two. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The F@4 Pick: CLE +3.5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nPanthers @ Falcons<\/h2>\n\n\n\n +4.5<\/strong> <\/strong>Carolina Panthers<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>48%<\/strong>-4.5 <\/strong><\/strong> Atlanta Falcons<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>52%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe Panthers are making another appearance on the F@4, and I\u2019ll be damned if I\u2019m going to bail on my convictions now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, they held the Bucs without a touchdown last week. After Thursday night\u2019s performance against the Ravens, that achievement no longer carries the same weight. The Falcons have very <\/strong>quietly been significantly more successful than anyone gave them credit for coming into the season, in that they\u2019re clearly not the worst team playing (Arthur Smith sends you his regards, Nathaniel Hackett). <\/p>\n\n\n\nThe Falcons are 9th in offensive DVOA, Marcus Mariota continues to be on the plus side of mediocre (17th in DYAR, 0.138 adjusted EPA\/play, ahead of Brady, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Kyler Murray, to name a few). Suffice it to say, they\u2019re significantly more concerning than whatever sludge Tampa Bay has morphed into.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAs another divisional game, that usually knocks a point or two off the pick confidence for me, but I am as convinced last week was the high-water mark for the Panthers as I am that Midnights is just okay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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