{"id":71125,"date":"2023-03-09T20:57:16","date_gmt":"2023-03-09T20:57:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=71125"},"modified":"2023-03-09T21:07:29","modified_gmt":"2023-03-09T21:07:29","slug":"can-saint-marys-win-the-national-championship","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/03\/09\/can-saint-marys-win-the-national-championship\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Saint Mary\u2019s Win the National Championship?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Saint Mary\u2019s suffered a three-game skid in the non-conference, including losses to Washington and New Mexico, but bounced back after, rattling off 15 wins in 16 tries that culminated in an overtime victory over bitter rival Gonzaga. The Gaels\u2019 other notable triumphs from the season came against San Diego State, Oral Roberts, North Texas, Vanderbilt, and BYU three times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Unmatched.<br><br>Randy Bennett.<br><br>Your <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/WCCHoops?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#WCCHoops<\/a> ?????? ?? ??? ?????<br><br>?\ufe0f: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9nxV4Bj9qV\">https:\/\/t.co\/9nxV4Bj9qV<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DipgClYdWo\">pic.twitter.com\/DipgClYdWo<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WCC Basketball (@WCChoops) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WCChoops\/status\/1630994895501672448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 1, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This team combines a snail\u2019s pace with one of the most efficient defenses around to smother its opponents into submission. Senior guard Logan Johnson does it all for the Gaels, and freshman Aidan Mahaney is poised to be the next great heir to the Saint Mary\u2019s point guard throne. Randy Bennett is in his 22nd year as head coach, and his teams have slowly crept up the national pecking order throughout his tenure, but has he done enough in Moraga to win Saint Mary\u2019s its inaugural national championship?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Last National Championship:<\/strong> None<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Last Final Four:<\/strong> None<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2023 Title Odds: <\/strong>+4500 (as of March 8, 2023)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Saint Mary\u2019s Will Make a Run<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Saint Mary\u2019s is in the top 10 of<a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/index.php?s=RankAdjOE\"> KenPom<\/a> and<a href=\"https:\/\/barttorvik.com\/?&amp;begin=20221101&amp;end=20230501&amp;conlimit=All&amp;year=2023&amp;top=0&amp;quad=5&amp;rpi=\"> T-Rank<\/a> in adjusted defensive efficiency and gives up<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/146\"> the fifth-fewest points per game<\/a> in the country (60.1). The Gaels do a great job of running their opponents off the three-point line, only allowing an average of just 16.4 attempts per outing. This team has a full rotation of defenders, with every player capable of shutting down an opposing attack. Four Gaels have<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/schools\/saint-marys-ca\/men\/2023.html\"> defensive win shares of 2.0 or greater<\/a> this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Gaels are generally beloved by the metrics. Saint Mary\u2019s is No. 11 in KenPom, No. 8 in T-Rank, No. 16 in Sagarin, and No. 18 in BPI. This team won\u2019t be seeded based on those numbers, but they do tell us something about the quality of this team beyond simple wins and losses. We always see a mid-major or two make deep runs in this tournament, often a team that plays better than its schedule allows its resume to become. Pre-tournament indicators point to Saint Mary\u2019s being a strong candidate for 2023\u2019s version of that phenomenon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Saint Mary\u2019s Will Exit Early<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For as quality as the Gaels\u2019 defense is, their offense leaves a bit to be desired. Saint Mary\u2019s is insistent on taking up as much of the shot clock as possible, and that works in its favor when opponents are struggling to score and shots are falling. When those things aren\u2019t happening, though, it becomes the Gaels dribble-weaving and perimeter passing themselves to their own funeral. This team doesn\u2019t score many assisted buckets, so most of its offense comes from individuals making individual plays. Saint Mary\u2019s has shot 47 or fewer shots from the field in five games this season and lost four of them, but with how slow it plays, it\u2019s making it more difficult for itself to get up more looks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, it\u2019s a bit worrying how thoroughly Gonzaga handled Saint Mary\u2019s in the WCC Tournament Final. Sure, it\u2019s only one game, and we\u2019ve seen plenty of teams get hammered in their conference tournaments before turning it on in the Big Dance a week later. But with how utterly outmatched Saint Mary\u2019s appeared in that one to a fellow national championship contender, it leaves you with some doubts as to whether or not this team has enough to win it all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What It\u2019ll Take to Win<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It all starts with defense for Saint Mary\u2019s. The Gaels are 21-2 when they hold their opponent to 44.2 percent from the field or worse and 5-5 otherwise. With the slow tempo Saint Mary\u2019s prefers, it simply cannot afford to let an opponent be efficient with the shots it takes. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances to score, and that goes both ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/wMQGZJyxNfo\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Saint Mary\u2019s boasts one of the best-rebounding<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/151\"> margins in the country<\/a> (7.2), and it\u2019ll need to bring that to the NCAA Tournament, too, to have a shot at the national championship. In slow games with fewer possessions and shots, every loose ball is that much more important. The rebounding machines of Mitchell Saxon (7.8 rebounds per game) and Kyle Bowen (7.2 rebounds per game) must control the glass.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Saint Mary&#8217;s may have taken some by surprise this season, but they&#8217;re a team built for March Madness. Can they win it all?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":71126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-71125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-ncaa-mens-basketball"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can Saint Mary\u2019s Win the National Championship? | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Saint Mary&#039;s may have taken some by surprise this season, but they&#039;re a team built for March Madness. 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