{"id":72322,"date":"2023-03-15T16:01:22","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T16:01:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=72322"},"modified":"2023-03-15T16:01:23","modified_gmt":"2023-03-15T16:01:23","slug":"ncaa-tournament-west-regional-preview-its-wide-open","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/03\/15\/ncaa-tournament-west-regional-preview-its-wide-open\/","title":{"rendered":"NCAA Tournament West Regional Preview: It\u2019s Wide Open"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The West Regional is the most tightly contested, according to Vegas. Four teams \u2013 Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga, and UConn \u2013 have odds of +500 or better to claim the regional\u2019s Final Four bid, and picks will undoubtedly be split among brackets across the country. If you correctly select the escapee from Las Vegas in your bracket pool, you will have a serious leg up on the competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Odds-On Favorite:<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/03\/06\/can-kansas-win-the-national-championship\/\"> 1 Kansas<\/a> (+350),<a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/03\/08\/can-ucla-win-the-national-championship\/\"> 2 UCLA<\/a> (+350)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Other Favorites:<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/03\/09\/can-gonzaga-win-the-national-championship\/\"> 3 Gonzaga<\/a> (+410),<a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/03\/09\/can-uconn-win-the-national-championship\/\"> 4 UConn<\/a> (+500)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Challengers:<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/03\/10\/can-tcu-win-the-national-championship\/\"> 6 TCU<\/a> (+800),<a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/03\/09\/can-saint-marys-win-the-national-championship\/\"> 5 Saint Mary\u2019s<\/a> (+1100), 8 Arkansas (+2000)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Case for the Favorites<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1 Kansas<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kansas is No. 7 in the nation in<a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/index.php?s=RankAdjDE\"> KenPom\u2019s<\/a> adjusted defensive efficiency, and with how well this team does on the defensive glass, it can be tough for opponents to find opportunities for second-chance points. Dajuan Harris Jr. won the<a href=\"https:\/\/big12sports.com\/news\/2023\/3\/5\/phillips-66-all-big-12-mens-basketball-awards-announced.aspx\"> Big 12\u2019s Defensive Player of the Year award<\/a>, and the backcourt combination of him and Kevin McCullar makes for one of the most intimidating perimeter defenses in college basketball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Dajuan Harris enters the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/NCAATournament?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#NCAATournament<\/a> w\/ the 16th most steals in a single season in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/KUbball?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#KUbball<\/a> history.  7th most in the Self Era.<br>&#39;08 M Chalmers 97<br>&#39;07 M Chalmers 97<br>&#39;06 M Chalmers 89<br>&#39;08 R Robinson 79<br>&#39;06 R Robinson 76<br>&#39;07 R Robinson 73<br>&#39;23 D HARRIS 72<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Jayhawks?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Jayhawks<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Creighton Coover (@kucr8ton) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kucr8ton\/status\/1635445387736543234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 14, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Jayhawks love to share the ball. They have four players averaging double-double scoring and are in the top-15 nationally in<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/216\"> assists per contest<\/a>. Jalen Wilson (20.1 points per game) is the one most often on the finishing end, though Gradey Dick (14.1 points per game) gets his, too. As a team, Kansas isn\u2019t outstanding from beyond the arc, but Harris and Dick are both 40-plus percent shooters from deep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2 UCLA<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bruins have the most efficient defense in the country, according to<a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/index.php?s=RankAdjDE\"> KenPom<\/a>, giving up an average of just 60.3 points per performance. Jaylen Clark was named<a href=\"https:\/\/pac-12.com\/article\/2023\/03\/07\/2022-23-pac-12-mens-basketball-all-conference-honors-and-annual-performance\"> Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year<\/a>, and for good reason \u2013 the junior guard has pulled off 78 steals, is fourth in Division I in<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/seasons\/men\/2023-leaders.html\"> defensive rating<\/a> (85.3), and takes the top spot nationally in defensive box plus\/minus (6.7). His 2.8 defensive win shares are only good enough for fourth in the country, surpassed by his own teammate Jamie Jaquez\u2019s 3.0, which leads college basketball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/DZeYnaQVM-0\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking of Jaquez, the senior is scary on the offensive end, too. He makes big shot after big shot and can hurt you from anywhere on the floor; a hand in his face is nothing. For someone who takes the shots Jaquez does, 47.4 percent from the field is incredible. He\u2019s also formidable on the glass and leads the line for a talented rebounding group \u2013 UCLA topped the Pac-12 in<a href=\"http:\/\/www.espn.com\/mens-college-basketball\/conferences\/statistics\/team\/_\/id\/21\/stat\/rebounds\/sort\/offensiveRebounds\"> offensive rebounds this season<\/a> with 395 (11.6 per game).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3 Gonzaga<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you want to watch beautiful offensive basketball, plug yourself into some Gonzaga hoops this March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The high-flying Zags present a multitude of maladies for their opponents. First, the speed at which the Bulldogs get the ball down the floor in transition is intense and dizzying; it\u2019s not strange for Gonzaga to score while most of the opposition\u2019s players are still on the other end of the court. Second, the Zags get to the rim frequently with a collection of uber-talented guards and Drew Timme, who connects on 65.2 percent of his two-point attempts, manufacturing tons of layups and kick outs to sharpshooters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">How do you know it&#39;s March?<br><br>Gonzaga&#39;s margin as Kenpom&#39;s 1st ranked offense (since Feb. 19) ballooned from .1 pts ahead of the 2nd to 2.9 pts.<br><br>The margin between 1st and 2nd is greater than the margin of 2nd to 13th.<br><br>1) GU 124.5<br>2) Baylor 121.6<br>.<br>.<br>.<br>13) Miami 118.9<\/p>&mdash; ?Tuck Clarry? (@hellohoopworld) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hellohoopworld\/status\/1633506116213837824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 8, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That brings me to three: deep shooting. Gonzaga hits at a 38.7-percent rate from beyond the arc and has five marksmen in its rotation who splash triples better than 38 percent of the time. Combine it all, and you have a team scoring<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/145\"> an NCAA-leading 87.5 points per game<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Zags have won every game in which they\u2019ve scored 75 points or more. Opposing defenses know their magic number, but it\u2019s another thing to actually do it against an offense this lethal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>4 UConn<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Don\u2019t let UConn\u2019s No. 4 seed fool you \u2013 the Huskies are a major Final Four contender. They\u2019re ranked fourth in<a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/index.php?s=RankAdjDE\"> KenPom<\/a> and<a href=\"https:\/\/barttorvik.com\/\"> T-Rank<\/a> and sixth in<a href=\"http:\/\/sagarin.com\/sports\/cbsend.htm\"> Sagarin<\/a> and<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mens-college-basketball\/bpi\/_\/view\/resume\"> BPI<\/a>, which puts them firmly in the mix for a deep run this March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Connecticut\u2019s offense has several ways to hurt defenses, but its best attribute is generating off the glass. UConn is sixth in the country in<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/857\"> offensive rebounds per game<\/a> (13.42) and it has seven players who usually get at least one offensive board each contest, illustrating a team effort to crash hard after the shot. As a whole, the Huskies are one of the best rebounding outfits in this tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">UConn just outrebounded the #3 rebounding team in America 38-18. <br><br>I\u2019m about to say some wild things about this team. <br><br>WATCH OUT.<\/p>&mdash; Jack McGuire (@JackMacCFB) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JackMacCFB\/status\/1628568731122114563?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 23, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This team also has one of the nation\u2019s best rim protectors in 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan. His 1.8 blocks per game were<a href=\"http:\/\/www.espn.com\/mens-college-basketball\/conferences\/statistics\/player\/_\/id\/4\/stat\/blocks\/sort\/avgBlocks\"> fifth in the Big East<\/a> this season, and he\u2019s part of a daunting frontcourt that\u2019s in Division I\u2019s top 20 for<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/214\"> swats per contest<\/a> (5.0). You won\u2019t find many easy looks around the basket against the Huskies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I haven\u2019t even mentioned Adama Sanogo or Jordan Hawkins, who both finished in the top three of the Big East in<a href=\"http:\/\/www.espn.com\/mens-college-basketball\/conferences\/statistics\/player\/_\/id\/4\/stat\/scoring-per-game\"> points per game<\/a> (16.8 and 16.1, respectively). This team can score, defend, and goes deep. You can\u2019t underestimate it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dark Horse to Monitor: 6 TCU<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the NCAA Tournament, it\u2019s common for a team to ride a hot hand deep into the event. That player is typically a guard who can get to the rim at will and score from anywhere. TCU\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=WN622-sRl5g&amp;ab_channel=FullCourtFilms\">Mike Miles<\/a> fits that description to a tee. His 17.3 points per contest were<a href=\"http:\/\/www.espn.com\/mens-college-basketball\/conferences\/statistics\/player\/_\/id\/8\/stat\/scoring-per-game\"> third-best in the Big 12 this season<\/a>, and he\u2019s virtually impossible to stop once he gets going downhill. Miles can flat-out take over games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Offense isn\u2019t even TCU\u2019s strong suit, defense is. So long as the Horned Frogs defend like they\u2019re capable of and Miles is putting the ball in the basket on the other end, they have a real chance at navigating through this region. TCU forces a lot of turnovers and blocks a ton of shots, and it loves to turn those into quick points for itself \u2013 the Horned Frogs lead the country in fastbreak points per game (18.81)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/1285\"> by a wide margin<\/a>. This is not an easy team to put points on, and sloppiness with the ball will be punished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Cinderella Candidate: 12 VCU<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When you defend like the Rams, you\u2019ll always give yourself a chance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VCU is a premier defensive team. It\u2019s in<a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/index.php?s=RankAdjDE\"> KenPom<\/a> and<a href=\"https:\/\/barttorvik.com\/\"> T-Rank\u2019s<\/a> top 20 for adjusted defensive efficiency, and it\u2019s held opponents to an average of just 62.9 points per game. The Rams utilize an unrelenting, full-court defense that is designed to rattle opponents and stop or slow their possessions before they cross the timeline. When VCU successfully turns its opponent over at a high rate, its win percentage is tantalizingly juicy, and this is a team that ranks in the top 10 nationally in<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/215\"> steals per game<\/a> (9.1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Forced Turnover Rate Relative to Win% Among NCAA Tournament Teams<br><br>Huge believer in VCU making a run. The athleticism &amp; motor in their full-court press defense could expose whoever comes in their way. <br><br>Great foundation of staying in games even if the shot isn\u2019t falling <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LiI3iPuEIV\">pic.twitter.com\/LiI3iPuEIV<\/a><\/p>&mdash; KeeseeHoopScouting (@HoopKeesee) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HoopKeesee\/status\/1635714745436188673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 14, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the first round, VCU is paired with No. 5 seed Saint Mary\u2019s, a team that has had some issues with full-court presses lately. The Gaels prefer not to shoot early in the shot clock, even if an opponent\u2019s press leads to open looks. This could turn out to be a very friendly matchup for VCU, plus its dogged press means they\u2019re never out of games and can come up with ways to score even if their half-court offense dries up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scoring is an issue. The Rams are not very good in the half-court, and they\u2019re horrible from the free-throw line (69.7 percent). This team is not winning the national championship, and it will only go as far as its defense will take it. But we\u2019ve seen unique defensive styles confuse teams in this single-elimination amalgamation of methodologies, and how the Rams play could get this double-digit seed into the second weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Elite Eight Prediction: 4 UConn vs 2 UCLA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m betting on UConn\u2019s rebounding to be a difference-maker against most teams it might face in this tournament, even though I think VCU and Iona both present tough matchups for the No. 4 seed. The Huskies are just so dominant on the glass, and if you\u2019re manufacturing yourself more opportunities to score and taking ones away from your opponent, you\u2019ll always be in a good position to win. I\u2019m going with UConn over Kansas, because the Jayhawks\u2019 three-point shooting and free-throw line percentage concern me. Sometimes, Kansas looks impotent on offense and can go through long windows without scoring, and I fear that would rear its ugly head against this Huskies defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/RSs_PjGf-yk\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I expect another meeting between Gonzaga and UCLA in the Sweet 16, showcasing to the world a total clash of styles. Whoever controls the tempo in that game will win it, and I trust Mick Cronin and the Bruins to follow the playbook laid out by Saint Mary\u2019s earlier in the season on how to slow the Zags down. UCLA has much better personnel than the Gaels, plus incredible size on its roster. With Tyger Campbell controlling the reins and the Bruins exploiting Timme\u2019s defensive deficiencies inside, UCLA will hold the Bulldogs to below their 75-point threshold and score enough to get to the Elite Eight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Final Four Representative: 4 UConn<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I want to preface this by reiterating that UConn\u2019s poor turnover rate (18.9) concerns me, especially against some of the teams in this West Regional. If a team effectively exploits that in an early round, I could look very dumb here. But I\u2019m a big believer in rebounding, so that\u2019s what I\u2019m going with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Very trendy UCONN<br><br>*Ken Pom #4 team<br>*6th in offense, 18th defense<br>*6th in assists, share the ball<br>*2 players averaging 16+ ppg Sanogo + Hawkins <br>*2nd best rebounding (#1 OREB%)<br>*14th defending the 3 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DQEhwERTYP\">pic.twitter.com\/DQEhwERTYP<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Jim Costa (@JimCosta_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JimCosta_\/status\/1635285851986079744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 13, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Huskies are one of the rare teams that have the size to match up with UCLA. The Huskies can play in a mucked-up contest like the Bruins want, and they can do so comfortably. UConn has the best offensive rebound percentage in the country (39.2),<a href=\"https:\/\/barttorvik.com\/\"> according to T-Rank<\/a>, while UCLA finds itself in the middle of Division I in defensive rebound percentage (27.6). What this means to me is a lot of second-chance opportunities for Connecticut and a lot of extra defense for UCLA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Plus, I\u2019m a bit wary of how many mid-range jumpers the Bruins take. It\u2019s part of why their shooting percentages (45.8 from the field, 50.4 from inside the arc) aren\u2019t that great. Bad shots are a good way to give the ball away, and a highly-efficient offense like UConn\u2019s is equipped to penalize just that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In what many are calling the &#8220;Region of Death&#8221;, it seems like the West Region is wide open in this year&#8217;s NCAA Tournament.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":72324,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1522,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-entertainment","category-ncaa-mens-basketball"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NCAA Tournament West Regional Preview: It\u2019s Wide Open | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In what 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