{"id":74468,"date":"2023-03-28T15:29:52","date_gmt":"2023-03-28T15:29:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=74468"},"modified":"2023-03-28T15:32:29","modified_gmt":"2023-03-28T15:32:29","slug":"the-mens-final-four-the-case-for-each-contender","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/03\/28\/the-mens-final-four-the-case-for-each-contender\/","title":{"rendered":"The Men&#8217;s Final Four: The Case for Each Contender"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No top-three seeds, two mid-majors, three-first time participants \u2013 you\u2019ve never seen a Final Four like it, and this is shaping up to be one of the most memorable men\u2019s basketball championships in NCAA history. You really know it&#8217;s a one-of-a-kind Final Four when UConn is the least surprising inclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This March, the have-nots have had their way. Two No. 1 seeds survived until the Sweet 16, and two didn\u2019t even get there. UCLA was the only blue blood in the second weekend, and it didn\u2019t stay long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">THE MEN&#39;S FINAL FOUR IS SET!<br><br>And for the first time EVER, no top-3 seed is in it ? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5qzto3E4Za\">pic.twitter.com\/5qzto3E4Za<\/a><\/p>&mdash; ESPN (@espn) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/espn\/status\/1640139600264822785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 26, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You\u2019d think there\u2019s no way a team like FAU or San Diego State could win the national championship, but here we are, living in a reality where one of them will be in the ultimate contest, potentially against another program yearning for its first mountaintop in Miami. UConn is the undoubted favorite, but there are reasons for each of the other three candidates to become the bell of the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Will it be the Huskies, Hurricanes, Aztecs, or Owls who cut down the nets on Monday? Let\u2019s give them all their due process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Case for Each NCAA Basketball Championship Contender<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>San Diego State<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Last Final Four:<\/strong> Never<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How they got here:<\/strong> defeated 12 Charleston, 63-57 (first round); defeated 13 Furman, 75-52 (second round); defeated 1 Alabama, 71-64 (Sweet 16); defeated 6 Creighton, 57-56 (Elite Eight)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Title odds:<\/strong> +360<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why San Diego State will win the national championship:<\/strong> The Aztecs were one of the best defensive teams in college basketball during the season, and they\u2019ve shown that in spades this NCAA Tournament to get one win away from the national championship game. This team held the high-flying Crimson Tide to just 64 points, Alabama\u2019s third-lowest output in any game this campaign, then turned around and kept Creighton to 56, its second-smallest score on the season. Those are two of the best offenses in the country, both entirely taken out of their rhythms by San Diego State. In particular, Nathan Mensah has been an eraser inside, averaging three blocks per game this tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/kLqSOiiULm0\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">San Diego State especially excels at restricting its opponents\u2019 fortunes from three. This tournament, Aztecs opposition have shot just<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/schools\/san-diego-state\/men\/2023-gamelogs.html#20230316-20230326-sum:sgl-basic_NCAAM\"> 17 percent from beyond the arc<\/a> (16-of-94). That\u2019s even better than the 27.9 percent rate San Diego State has compiled for the season as a whole, which ranks<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/518\"> third in Division I<\/a>. This team was already one of the stingiest perimeter defenses in the country, and now it\u2019s clamping down even further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why San Diego State won\u2019t win the national championship:<\/strong> San Diego State is not a high-scoring team, which is intentional. The Aztecs slow a tempo, limit the number of possessions, and beat you down with their defense and offensive play inside the arc. They don\u2019t need a ton of points to beat you, but they also require the game to go at a certain speed. The Aztecs play the slowest adjusted tempo of any of the Final Four participants,<a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/index.php?s=RankAdjDE\"> according to KenPom<\/a>, and any deviation from that could be a problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/vDkLfemJ3Ak\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This team is not reliable from three or the free-throw line. Against Alabama was the only tournament outing in which the Aztecs connected better than 30 percent on their triples, and there have been a few poor days at the charity stripe in this event. That doesn\u2019t mean San Diego State can\u2019t convert from behind either line, but those aren\u2019t its strong suits. Ideally, the Aztecs don\u2019t have to rely on their deep shooting or free throws to put points on the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>FAU<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Last Final Four:<\/strong> Never<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How they got here:<\/strong> defeated 8 Memphis, 66-65 (first round); defeated 16 Fairleigh Dickinson, 78-70 (second round); defeated 4 Tennessee, 62-55 (Sweet 16); defeated 3 Kansas State, 79-76 (Elite Eight)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Title odds:<\/strong> +600<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why FAU will win the national championship:<\/strong> This is a well-balanced team that is fit with athletic scorers and defenders. Outside of Vlad Goldin and his 7-foot-1 frame, there\u2019s not a lot of height on this team, but it still rebounds very well. The Owls outpaced all four of their tournament opponents on the boards, but while Goldin is a big part of FAU\u2019s rebounding attack (hauling in 8.3 of them per contest), their true strength lies in their rebounding guards. FAU\u2019s perimeter players are excellent at boxing out, know where to be to grab those loose balls, and pounce with intent. Florida Atlantic is in the top-20 nationally in<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/932\"> rebounds per game<\/a> (39.08) and in the top-10 for<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/stats\/basketball-men\/d1\/current\/team\/859\"> defensive rebounds per night<\/a> (28.11).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/eaI-PPnJOvU\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Johnell Davis has been on a special run this whole month, averaging 16.7 points per game on 54.3 percent shooting from the field in March. He lit Fairleigh Dickinson up with a 29-point, 12-board double-double, and he\u2019s otherwise been the impetus for the FAU offense during the Dance. Davis can blow by his man and be at the rim so quickly that by the time the defense reacts, he\u2019s already at the tin. The Owls can win it all if he keeps this up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why FAU won\u2019t win the national championship:<\/strong> FAU has had some turnovers issues this season, including in this tournament. Against Kansas State, the Owls coughed it up 22 times, and they\u2019ve lost the turnover battle in three of their four March Madness contests. This team\u2019s backcourt can defend and score with the best of them, but it has a tendency to be loose with the ball. FAU escaped the Elite Eight with a gaudy number of giveaways, but to commit so many again would be tempting fate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/l5pUWdVAk2c\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After Goldin, the next-tallest player in FAU\u2019s rotation is Giancarlo Rosado at 6-foot-8. That might sound tall to you and me, but to big-time NCAA basketball teams vying for a championship, that\u2019s meh. The Owls utilize their lack of size and wealth of speed to run circles around their opponents, but the small stature of most of its men could be a problem if an opposing team can exploit it in offensive and defensive mismatches. This hasn\u2019t fatally bitten FAU yet in this tournament, but it\u2019s something that could keep it from cutting down the nets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Miami<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Last Final Four:<\/strong> Never<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How they got here:<\/strong> defeated 12 Drake, 63-56 (first round); defeated 4 Indiana, 85-69 (second round); defeated 1 Houston, 89-75 (Sweet 16); defeated 2 Texas, 88-81 (Elite Eight)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Title odds:<\/strong> +490<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why Miami will win the national championship:<\/strong> This backcourt was one of the best in the country in the regular season, and it has fully lived up to its reputation in the NCAA Tournament. Jim Larranaga\u2019s guard-heavy lineup has poured the points on most of its tournament opponents, scoring from all over the floor to bring the Hurricanes to their first-ever Final Four. All of Miami\u2019s starting guard quartet are averaging at least 12 points per game this March Madness \u2013 it\u2019s a virtual guarantee that some combination of Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, and Wooga Poplar will go off in any given contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/H4Jua7aCm44\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Hurricanes are one of the best free-throw shooting teams in Division I, hitting on 78 percent of their tries for the season. In the tournament, Miami has shot 80.6 percent from the charity stripe as a team. This came in handy to stay with Drake, build the lead against Houston, and come back on Texas \u2013 in those three games, the Canes attempted 80 free throws and scored nearly 28 percent of their total points at the line. Defend Miami straight up, or it\u2019s death by one thousand free throws for you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why Miami won\u2019t win the national championship:<\/strong> The Hurricanes are No. 5 in<a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/index.php?s=RankAdjDE\"> KenPom\u2019s<\/a> adjusted offensive efficiency metric, which is fantastic. They\u2019re also No. 104 in the site\u2019s adjusted defensive efficiency stat, which is not fantastic. In this tournament, Miami has defended much better than it did for much of the regular season, and that will have to continue for it to win the national championship. Among the four national semifinalists, though, Miami ranks by far the worst in nearly every defensive category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/hlX3A2g0YcU\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This isn\u2019t the deepest team left in the tournament. Almost all of Miami\u2019s scoring comes from its four starting guards and Norchad Omier. If two or more of them have an off-night offensively, especially the biggest guns, it can be a real problem. Against Drake, Wong and Miller combined for an abysmal 3-of-17 from the field \u2013 if not for Tucker DeVries having the worst game of his college career, the Bulldogs probably eliminate the Hurricanes four games ago. Pack, Wong, and Miller are each yet to play fewer than 32 minutes in a game this tournament. If an opponent can limit their effectiveness from the field, it can make putting points on the board dicer for the Canes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>UConn<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Last Final Four:<\/strong> 2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How they got here:<\/strong> defeated 13 Iona, 87-63 (first round); defeated 5 Saint Mary\u2019s, 70-55 (second round); defeated 8 Arkansas, 88-65 (Sweet 16); defeated 3 Gonzaga, 82-54 (Elite Eight)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Title odds:<\/strong> -125<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why UConn will win the national championship:<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/03\/09\/can-uconn-win-the-national-championship\/\"> UConn<\/a> is the favorite to win its fifth national championship, which would tie the program for<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/news\/basketball-men\/article\/2022-04-05\/schools-most-ncaa-college-basketball-national-championships\"> fourth all-time<\/a> for most titles in NCAA men\u2019s basketball history along with Duke and Indiana, and for good reason. The Huskies have unequivocally eviscerated every opponent that has stood in their way thus far. Their average margin of victory this March Madness is 22.5 points, and no team has managed to break 65 in a single game against them. Offensively, defensively, on the glass \u2013 UConn has smashed its opposition in every way. For example: the Huskies are shooting almost 42 percent from deep this tournament while holding their opponents to 27.3 percent from beyond the arc. See what I mean?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/UgnKgGyvvZE\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Connecticut is loaded with talented players who are hot at the right time, but none have impressed more this tournament than<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/adama-sanogo-1\/gamelog\/2023\"> Adama Sanogo<\/a>. He\u2019s posted double-doubles twice in four games and shot 75 percent (33-of-44) from the field in the first three rounds combined. His finishing touch was off against Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, but instead of filling it up that way, the junior forward chipped in 10 rebounds, six assists, a 4-of-4 mark from the free-throw line, and massively disruptive play on the defensive end. Even when his shots don\u2019t fall, Sanogo is still impacting the game in every other way. If the Huskies are to snatch their fifth crown, the Malian will be at the epicenter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why UConn won\u2019t win the national championship:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turnovers. They have been UConn\u2019s main weakness all season, and it\u2019s one that can do serious damage on the wrong night. The team\u2019s season turnover rate of 18.8 is within the bottom-third of Division I,<a href=\"https:\/\/barttorvik.com\/?sort=11&amp;begin=20221101&amp;end=20230501&amp;conlimit=All&amp;year=2023&amp;top=0&amp;hteam=&amp;venue=All&amp;type=All&amp;mingames=0&amp;quad=5&amp;rpi=&amp;rev=0\"> according to T-Rank<\/a>, and three members of its rotation have<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/schools\/connecticut\/men\/2023.html\"> a turnover percentage of 20 or higher<\/a> (Tristen Newton, Andre Jackson, and Hassan Diarra). In this tournament, the Huskies have coughed it up 12 times per game, which is about in line with their season average. They handed it over to Saint Mary\u2019s 14 times, then another 17 to Arkansas. UConn did enough in other areas to win both games convincingly, but this is something an opponent can latch onto and exploit to turn a contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/oy_ymDnmk2A\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have seen some truly ridiculous stuff in this tournament with unforgettable upsets and top teams dropping like flies. Connecticut has been a constant source of domination, but in a Big Dance riddled with shock results, we cannot anoint a champion two games early. The stats and what we\u2019ve seen in this event so far tell us that UConn should get one for the thumb, but this is March \u2013 anyone can steal the spotlight in one game.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Final Four is set, and while likely nobody predicted these four teams, there are picks to be made. Check out the preview here!  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":74469,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-ncaa-mens-basketball"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Men&#039;s Final Four: The Case for Each Contender | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Final Four is set, and while likely nobody predicted these four teams, there are picks to be made. 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