{"id":74700,"date":"2023-04-03T18:51:10","date_gmt":"2023-04-03T18:51:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=74700"},"modified":"2023-04-03T18:51:13","modified_gmt":"2023-04-03T18:51:13","slug":"way-too-early-nfl-win-totals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/04\/03\/way-too-early-nfl-win-totals\/","title":{"rendered":"Way Too Early NFL Win Totals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Alex Lauzon from the \u201c<\/em>Course of Life<\/em><\/a>\u201d podcast<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, When’s Kickoff?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dear NFL degenerate – I know you. You may not know me, but we\u2019re certainly friends. It\u2019s the first week in April and we\u2019re in the lonely periods of the offseason separating the free agency chaos from the NFL Draft hype. We were collectively needing a shot of adrenaline as football fans to continue our obsession through the quietest months, and thankfully Las Vegas delivers the fun like they always do\u2026NFL win totals are HERE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, it might be four months until the Hall of Fame Game kicks off the NFL preseason, and five months away from any meaningful NFL football, but that doesn\u2019t stop the sharpest minds in the game from doling out the odds nice and early. The field of 32 franchises have win totals that are hauntingly low, and several in double digits. So let\u2019s get brash and start forecasting some drafts – it\u2019s time for a way too early <\/em>look at regular season win totals for 2023-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Top of the Crop – The 11.5’s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The odds were released and three teams sat atop the boards for win totals in 2023 at over\/under 11.5 wins – the Bengals, the 49ers, and the defending champion Chiefs. Out of those three headliners, the Over I would grab now at 11.5 wins is the Chiefs. Having been a lifelong Patriots fan I know EXACTLY what sustained greatness looks like and the Chiefs are the closest example in this era. Even in what some would describe as an \u201coff year\u201d where Patrick Mahomes didn\u2019t have the pieces he normally does on offense, they still strolled to 14 regal season wins\u2026and you know the rest from there. So you\u2019re telling me they can take another step back and walk to a 12-5 victory in a division they annually dominate? I\u2019ll take that bet all day – it reminds me of hammering the Patriots’ overs and getting my annual payout throughout the 2010s. Sigh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
AP Photo\/Adam Hunger<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As for the 11.5-win total team I\u2019m weary of, it\u2019s the 49ers. I KNOW, I can hear you through the screen shouting\u00a0 \u201cThey almost made the Super Bowl with Brock Purdy at QB!\u201d They did, but now the book is out on how to defend this Shanahan offense and I\u2019m seeing a regression for the Niners in the regular season win column. The Seahawks and Rams will take a step forward to make the NFC West slightly more competitive, but I\u2019m picturing San Fran posting 10 or maybe 11 wins in a hard-fought 2023 campaign – not enough to go over their total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bottom of the Barrel – The 5.5’s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Back in the economy class of the NFL, we have the cellar dwellers in both the standings and in 2023 win total projections. Both the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans are checking in at over\/under 5.5 wins for their 2023 campaigns, and to put a ticket on one of these teams takes a brave soul. Regardless of whether you like the over or under with these squads, both teams have tons of questions at their most important positions. The Cardinals are very unsure about Kyler Murray as their QB and are in a coaching transition, while the Texans are likely done with Davis Mills and looking for something new.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What these two crap teams do possess is hope in the form of a top-three draft pick. The one benefit of these pre-draft over\/unders is that draft picks at the end of the month haven\u2019t been accounted for. If you\u2019re high on Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud like I was in my QB draft rankings<\/a>, and you see one of those QB\u2019s going to help Houston or Arizona, then you can talk yourself into one of those teams getting to six wins. Between the two, I think the Texans with Bryce Young and more pieces on defense could get there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Movers and Shakers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In terms of volatility with 2022 results vs 2023 win total projections, the Chicago Bears lead the way. Though Justin Fields and Chicago struggled to a 3-14 season, they were one of those bad teams that were strangely exciting to watch and very competitive despite their record. Now as they\u2019ve grabbed D.J. Moore and more draft capital in exchange for the 1st overall draft pick, their juiced win total sits at 7.5 wins. It\u2019s hard to see that big a leap and five additional wins, but improvement is closer in Chicago than it was last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the biggest falloff from 2022 results to 2023 win total odds, you don\u2019t have to leave the NFC North. After a miraculous comeback-filled 13-4 campaign that ended what a quick playoff departure, it\u2019s no surprise to see that Vegas thinks that season was a fluke. Their win total for 2023 is set all the way down at 8.5 wins, forecasting a massive letdown season for Minnesota this fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alex’s Way too early Win Total Plays<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Chiefs OVER 11.5 wins<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

49ers UNDER 11.5 wins<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texans OVER 5.5 wins<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steelers UNDER 8.5 wins<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Patriots OVER 7.5 wins (I\u2019m a glutton for punishment sometimes)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you’re like us over here at RYP, we’re itching for football to start. This is the perfect time to grab some good numbers on win totals! <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":74702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"\nWay Too Early NFL Win Totals | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If you're like us over here at RYP, we're itching for football to start. 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