{"id":75773,"date":"2023-04-27T12:10:51","date_gmt":"2023-04-27T12:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=75773"},"modified":"2023-04-27T13:44:30","modified_gmt":"2023-04-27T13:44:30","slug":"nfl-draft-betting-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/04\/27\/nfl-draft-betting-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Draft Betting Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/04\/24\/2023-nfl-draft\/\">NFL Draft<\/a> week. Message board heroes try to push their &#8216;inside&#8217; information on their favorite longshots, ESPN gathers the most heart-wrenching and depressing stories to tell after players are selected, everyone tightens up their final mocks, and bets are placed for Thursday night. We have a great crop of QBs and some quarterback-needy teams sitting near the top of the draft board, along with some elite defensive talent that could slip due to the talent at the quarterback position. There are plenty of props to look over and we&#8217;ve got picks to make, so let&#8217;s get into it! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">#1 Overall<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Panthers are taking Bryce Young, no matter what Reddit says. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The NFL Draft in 2023: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RUGhhxVnpm\">pic.twitter.com\/RUGhhxVnpm<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MySportsUpdate\/status\/1650862256492810242?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 25, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Would Levis have been worth a sprinkle at +4000 if you somehow caught that news before it was posted? Absolutely. But I can just see the suckers now rushing to get Levis #1 overall at +400 and chasing it all the way down to wherever it goes. Don&#8217;t waste your money with anything on the #1 overall pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">#2 Overall Pick<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now things get interesting. Currently on FanDuel, the odds for the #2 pick are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Will Levis: +175<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Will Anderson Jr.: +300<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tyree Wilson: +300<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CJ Stroud: +350<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Anthony Richardson: +4000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m not going to pretend like I know what&#8217;s going on in Houston&#8217;s front office. I don&#8217;t even think they know what&#8217;s going on to be quite honest. They&#8217;ve made some solid moves to improve their offense in the offseason, including signing Dalton Schultz, Devin Singletary, and Shaq Mason, and extending Laremy Tunsil. They did trade away Brandin Cooks, but that was a long time coming based on his vocal displeasure with the situation in Houston. My job here is to give a pick, and based on all the moves Houston has made, I see them taking a QB, no matter what Peter Schrager thinks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Could the Texans really pass on a QB at 2nd overall?<br><br>Yes. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PSchrags?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Pschrags<\/a> explains. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lVigSd4jCX\">pic.twitter.com\/lVigSd4jCX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Good Morning Football (@gmfb) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/gmfb\/status\/1650496613444354048?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 24, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I simply don&#8217;t think there will be a better QB available at 12. Are they going to take a gamble on Anthony Richardson or Hendon Hooker? I doubt it. I&#8217;m not as high on Will Levis as some GMs (and the books apparently), and I think that Houston will go with the &#8216;safe&#8217; pick in CJ Stroud. He&#8217;s an elite talent, S2 Cognition Test scores be damned, and has the kind of game that translates to the pros. Don&#8217;t mess it up, Houston.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pick: CJ Stroud +350<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">#3 Overall Pick<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Cardinals may need a quarterback to start their season, but they&#8217;re not drafting one for the future. Like it or not, Kyler Murray is locked up in Arizona for the foreseeable future. They couldn&#8217;t go wrong here with either Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson, and the odds agree, as they sit at +300 and +400 respectively. Paris Johnson Jr. is an intriguing option as well, but filling the JJ Watt void and grabbing a potentially elite edge rusher is more important for the Cardinals right now. Tyree Wilson&#8217;s tape is absolutely ridiculous, and the Cardinals would be silly to pass him up at 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pick: Tyree Wilson +300<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">#4 Overall Pick<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let&#8217;s step into the mind of Jim Irsay for a second. Jesus, it&#8217;s loud in here. The Colts need a quarterback, plain and simple. Staring them directly in the face are two project QBs in Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if they made a move up to #2 to try and grab CJ Stroud, but we&#8217;ll operate under the assumption that they&#8217;re staying at #4. According to Jim, everything is on the table! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">For the &#39;23 draft, we have many options. With the #4 pick, we could stay put and take a QB\u2014-or trade up and take a QB\u2014-OR trade down and MAYBE take a QB\u2014-Or NOT?<br>All options on the table, but we like our position and are very excited. Fire up! ? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OMRpt2KkGI\">pic.twitter.com\/OMRpt2KkGI<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Jim Irsay (@JimIrsay) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JimIrsay\/status\/1647693119419187201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 16, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You should really have to pay for that kind of insight. Groundbreaking stuff. Anyway. Earlier this month, it was reported that the Colts have a &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NBCSEdgeFB\/status\/1650496701914914817?s=20\">very real<\/a>&#8221; interest in Levis, and for good reason. The dude has an absolute cannon, which we all know is something that Irsay loves. Now, Richardson does too, and he has the mobility advantage over Levis, but I won&#8217;t pretend to know why the Colts seemingly prefer Levis over Richardson. If I had to guess, they view Richardson as more of a project and Levis more as pro-ready. I don&#8217;t necessarily agree, I think Richardson can come in and make an immediate impact wherever he goes and develop into a stronger pro-style QB, but I&#8217;m not a GM. I&#8217;ll stick with all of the reports and pick Levis here to the Colts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pick: Will Levis +130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">#5 Overall Pick<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ve seen multiple mocks now that have the Seahawks selecting a QB at 5. I understand drafting for the future, but at what point do we respect Geno Smith? They&#8217;ve signed him to an extension, he led them to the playoffs when most experts predicted them to have one of the worst records in the league last season, and now they have an opportunity to improve the team around him, not replace him. With the options left on the board, I see the Seahawks going best available. You could argue Jalen Carter here, but he has some character issues that might cause him to slip down the draft board. Will Anderson is a slam-dunk pick here, he&#8217;ll bring an immediate impact to Seattle&#8217;s defense that can help them continue to contend in the NFC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Props to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Total QBs Drafted in Round 1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The line for this is at 4.5, and the assumption is that it includes Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis, and Hendon Hooker. Tennessee had a great season last year, but Hendon Hooker is not a first-round quarterback, especially coming off a torn ACL. With the odds for under 4.5 QBs selected set at +140, that&#8217;s enough value for me there to justify a small pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pick: Under 4.5 +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Team to Draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I LOVE the Texans to take the Ohio State product here at 12. As mentioned previously, I highly doubt they&#8217;re going to wait on a QB until the 12th overall pick, and they need a new slot threat with Brandin Cooks gone. Smith-Njigba is the perfect fit here and he gets to pair up with CJ Stroud once again. The Texans take a page out of the Bengals&#8217; playbook here and take the dynamic Ohio State duo. And if you like that, you can also take JSN&#8217;s draft position Under 12.5 at +250. Double it up! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pick: Houston Texans +380<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Michigan_St_Ohio_St_Football_21324700450253.jpg\" alt=\"Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba celebrates his touchdown against Michigan State during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021, in Columbus, Ohio. \" class=\"wp-image-75774\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog-assets.runyourpool.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/25150950\/Michigan_St_Ohio_St_Football_21324700450253.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blog-assets.runyourpool.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/25150950\/Michigan_St_Ohio_St_Football_21324700450253-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog-assets.runyourpool.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/25150950\/Michigan_St_Ohio_St_Football_21324700450253-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">AP Photo\/Jay LaPrete<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Christian Gonzalez First CB Drafted &amp; Dalton Kincaid 1st TE Drafted<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This right here is why it&#8217;s called gambling. I have no issues with the Christian Gonzalez selection, I believe he&#8217;s the first CB taken and will go to the Lions at 6. Kincaid is more of a risk. His medical history is shaky, but the dude has elite pass-catching upside. I&#8217;m talking about Travis Kelce-type stuff. If there&#8217;s a team that is okay with his medical history, he&#8217;s by far the most talented tight end in this draft. The odds are definitely worth a look if you&#8217;re confident in Gonzalez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pick: Yes +500<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s plenty of value to be found with picks for the NFL Draft! We&#8217;re dishing out our best picks for Thursday here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":75775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NFL Draft Betting Preview | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There&#039;s plenty of value to be found with picks for the NFL Draft! 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