{"id":78339,"date":"2023-07-17T17:11:57","date_gmt":"2023-07-17T17:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=78339"},"modified":"2023-07-17T18:13:51","modified_gmt":"2023-07-17T18:13:51","slug":"survivor-trends-and-traps-nfc-and-afc-south","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/07\/17\/survivor-trends-and-traps-nfc-and-afc-south\/","title":{"rendered":"Survivor Trends and Traps: NFC South and AFC South"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Picking NFL winners Against the Spread (ATS) is a great way to dive deeper into the game and explore the trends behind the oddsmakers\u2019 lines. Understanding spreads and how certain teams perform ATS will give you an edge to beat your friends in your Survivor Pool<\/a>. In this series, we profile two divisions per week and offer up free tips, or identify survivor traps, in each team\u2019s 2023 schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFC South – No-one\u2019s Favorite Division<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

NFC South teams weren\u2019t great to watch in 2022, though that will change with an injection of talent at QB for many of this year\u2019s squads. What we can take forward from last year\u2019s numbers is that expecting an NFC South team to win when they are favored ATS may be a tall order in 2023 (the entire division went just 8-20-1 as favorites in \u201822).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022 Record ATS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Team<\/td>ATS (ALL)<\/td>AWAY<\/td>HOME<\/td>\u2018DOG<\/td>FAV.<\/td><\/tr>
Atlanta<\/td>9-8<\/td>4-4<\/td>5-4<\/td>7-5<\/td>2-3<\/td><\/tr>
Carolina<\/td>9-8<\/td>4-4<\/td>5-4<\/td>9-4<\/td>0-4<\/td><\/tr>
New Orleans<\/td>7-10<\/td>3-5<\/td>3-5<\/td>5-6<\/td>2-4<\/td><\/tr>
Tampa Bay<\/td>4-13-1<\/td>2-6<\/td>1-7<\/td>0-4<\/td>4-9-1<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Atlanta Falcons<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Atlanta was pretty good as an underdog (58%) but the one stat that really jumps off the page when you dig into the Falcons\u2019 ATS performance is their 8-4 record ATS in conference games. So, if you get a week where Atlanta is a home underdog to a conference opponent, pick them. This could happen as early as Week 1 vs. the Panthers, or Week 2 vs. the Packers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carolina Panthers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Panthers spent a lot of time as an underdog last season and excelled ATS in that role (9-4). The arrival of Bryce Young changes things to start 2023 — he may be the next big thing but relying on it early in the season may not be your best move in a survivor pool format. That said, don\u2019t pick the Panthers in your survivor pool until at least November if you can help it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Orleans Saints<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

New Orleans is also an \u2018all bets are off\u2019 kind of team to enter the 2023 season. QB Derek Carr has parachuted in and Dennis Allen is now HC. I couldn\u2019t find a single ATS category where the Saints were over 50% last year (that\u2019s bad). They were the worst against teams in their own division (1-5). So, if I am looking for an indicator from NO in 2023, it\u2019s to go win a road game against a divisional foe; then I\u2019ll think about picking them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) runs through drills at the team’s NFL football minicamp in Metairie, La., Thursday, June 15, 2023. (AP Photo\/Gerald Herbert)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Oh my, the Bucs. The one sure pick you could make most weeks last season was that the Bucs were not going to cover the spread — not at home, not away, not as a \u2018dog, and not as a fav. Now, Baker Mayfield is in town to run the O and what you think of that player will have a lot to do with how you pick this team. I like the Bucs at home vs the Bears in Week 2 for a survivor pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFC South – The Sneaky Good Division<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The AFC South had three teams finish with a winning record ATS in 2022: the Titans, Jaguars and Texans. The addition of C.J. Stroud in Houston and Anthony Richardson in Indy brings a tonne of playmaking ability to the division that will have oddsmakers scrambling to pick favorites in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022 Record ATS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Team<\/td>ATS (ALL)<\/td>AWAY<\/td>HOME<\/td>\u2018DOG<\/td>FAV.<\/td><\/tr>
Houston<\/td>8-8-1<\/td>5-3-1<\/td>3-5<\/td>8-8-1<\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
Indianapolis<\/td>6-11<\/td>3-6<\/td>3-5<\/td>5-5<\/td>1-6<\/td><\/tr>
Jacksonville<\/td>10-9<\/td>5-5<\/td>5-3<\/td>9-5<\/td>1-4<\/td><\/tr>
Tennessee<\/td>9-7-1<\/td>6-2-1<\/td>3-5<\/td>5-3-1<\/td>4-3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Houston Texans<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Houston was better than 50% both overall and as an underdog ATS in 2022; that\u2019s not bad for a team that only won three games straight-up. The Texans were most dangerous last season as an away underdog, which may be the case in Week 2 when all eyes will be on the Texans at Colts match-up — this could be a great spot to pick the Texans early in your survivor pool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indianapolis Colts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So much has changed for the Colts this offseason that it\u2019s really not fair to look at \u201822 numbers, other than to remark that perhaps the Colts were favored far too often last season (7 games); that seems like an awful lot for a team that went 4-12-1. If you can hold off in your survivor pool, I like the Colts at home to the Rams on October 1st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jacksonville Jaguars<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Jaguars were a great underdog (9-5) in 2022, but a poor favorite (1-4), and went just 3-3 in their own division, which did not feature another team with a winning record. Trevor Lawrence is the man at QB and this team has stability other AFC South teams do not. With five of their first six games at home, I like the Jaguars to go on a nice little run in my survivor pool to start the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tennessee Titans<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Like the Jags, Tennessee was a good team both in the win-loss column and ATS in 2022, going 9-7-1 overall and a brilliant 6-2-1 at home. TEN was great after an ATS win last season (6-1), meaning if you see them win one week, it\u2019s a good idea to pick them again the following week. The Titans travel particularly well against conference teams, setting up Week 2\u2019s visit to the Chargers as a good opportunity to pick the Titans ATS in your survivor pool.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

These may not be the most competitive divisions this season, but there’s plenty of opportunity to pick winners here for your survivor pools.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":78341,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"\nSurvivor Trends and Traps: NFC South and AFC South | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"These may not be the most competitive divisions this season, but there's plenty of opportunity to pick winners here for your survivor pools.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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