{"id":78477,"date":"2023-07-24T18:12:49","date_gmt":"2023-07-24T18:12:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=78477"},"modified":"2023-07-25T01:58:22","modified_gmt":"2023-07-25T01:58:22","slug":"2023-nfc-north-forecast-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/07\/24\/2023-nfc-north-forecast-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 NFC North Forecast & Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Entering 2023, the Detroit Lions are the most hyped team in the NFC North and perhaps the entire league. But I just don\u2019t know. There\u2019s good indicators out there that this division may be a dog fight to the end. Even the data models seem to think so. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to pre season projections, only about 1.5 games separate the first and fourth ranked teams for total wins in the NFC North, and no team in the division registers a playoff probability (POP) over 58% (elsewhere in the conference, Dallas, Philly and the 49ers all have a POP of 69% or greater). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So is this the Lions division to lose or is the hype just that? To find out, let\u2019s reference each team\u2019s 2023 Strength of Schedule<\/a> (SoS), Projected Wins<\/a> (PW) and Playoff Probability<\/a> (POP) as look-ahead\u2019 metrics that will help us determine how the NFC North may play out in 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chicago Bears<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 6th easiest, PW: 7.6, POP 34.8% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

QB Justin Fields showed explosive playmaking ability in 2022 but otherwise the Bears did not have much on offer. To shore things up, Chicago had an active offseason, signing and drafting players on both sides of the ball. If Fields can find his rhythm as a passer with newcomer D.J. Moore and the rest of the WR room, this offense projects stronger in \u201823, and should be able to move the ball more consistently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The defense added LB muscle through the trade market but the lack of a pass rush may still be a problem. That said, even with the sixth easiest schedule in the league in \u201823, the Bears PW total of 7.6 is 3.6 greater than their actual<\/em> wins last season, which seems high. I think Chicago will be better this season but I doubt we\u2019ll see them in the playoffs. A good early indicator for this team will come at home in Week 1 versus the Packers — the current line is Bears -3.0, which I think indicates what oddsmakers are expecting from the Bears to start the season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Detroit Lions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 11th easiest, PW: 9.1, POP: 57.6% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All the hype surrounding what the 2023 Detroit Lions \u2018can be\u2019 comes with an enormous amount of pressure. Let\u2019s not forget that this is a team that missed the playoffs last season while fielding one of the league\u2019s worst defenses. That said, the Lions were so efficient on offense in \u201822, and so effective at rising in key moments, that it\u2019s impossible not to give Detroit an edge in \u201823. I\u2019m just not sure how much better the Lions got versus their divisional rivals in the off season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The secondary certainly improved with the signing of Cam Sutton, but perhaps not enough, and the word \u2018reach\u2019 has been bandied about quite a bit in reference to the Lion\u2019s draft, which featured a RB and an off-ball LB in Round 1, while the team remains yet thin in the WR corps (a situation made no easier by suspensions). The OL is legit and Jared Goff has proven he can be a winning QB in Detroit. The big difference in \u201823 is that the Lions will surprise no-one and will be challenged early by quality teams (@KC, vs. SEA to start the season). What happens if and when the hype bubble bursts? I don\u2019t mind the Lions\u2019 PW total of 9.1 or POP of 57.6%, I just don\u2019t think they are a shoo-in for the NFC North crown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Green Bay Packers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 14th easiest, PW: 7.7, POP 35.2% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s pretty simple in Green Bay this season. Aaron Rodgers is out, Jordan Love is in, and the WR room is the cheapest in the league: there are nine rookies between 17 camp WRs and TEs. That said, Green Bay\u2019s RB duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon can rush, catch and pass-block productively — a great blessing for a young quarterback. Green Bay\u2019s defense also looks pretty good. Kenny Clark will need more help in the middle of the DL and the situation at Safety is a bit of a question mark, but the Edge looks good if Gary is healthy and the CB trio of Alexander, Stokes and Douglas is excellent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The popular pick is to project a slide-back year for the Packers but I\u2019m not sold. This team was 8-9 last year and missed the playoffs in 2023; some might say the only reason the Packers did that well was because of Aaron Rodgers. I am here to tell you, I watched every minute of the Packers last season and the reason they did that poorly<\/em> was because of Aaron Rodgers. I don\u2019t see a slide-back for this team at all. I see change, I see evolution, I see growing pains, but slide-back? No way. If Jordan Love is even average in 2023 the Packers have a good shot to do better than their projected win total of 7.7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minnesota Vikings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 8th most difficult, PW: 8.6, POP: 48.8% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Vikings ran away with the division in \u201822, going 13-4, but looked very vulnerable at times, including taking losses versus the Lions and Packers in the second half of the season. Kirk Cousins is statistically pretty good but yet to win big for the Vikes. It\u2019s next man up at the RB position after Dalvin Cook left town, while WR1 hopes Jordan Addison or someone else can develop fast enough to take some of the double teams away. The defense was just bad in \u201822. Did it get any better this off season?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, the Vikings have five cornerbacks on their roster who will be either a rookie, first- or second-year player in 2023. The team added a couple guys to the defensive through free agency and the draft, but they are not world beaters (DL Dean Lowry, DE Marcus Davenport, CB Byron Murphy). On paper, I\u2019m not sure how much this adds up to. At a projected win total of 8.6 games, the Vikes are predicted to slip by more than 4 games versus 2022. That said, they still get a POP of almost 49% – second best in the division – because they are the defending champs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wrap-up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the competitive NFC North, I perceive of the Bears as an outlier with the chance to spoil a division rival\u2019s playoff chances come December. Green Bay is remodeling, not rebuilding, and may surprise. Detroit is the hottest team in the league entering 2023, making them the favorites to win the division. That leaves Minnesota in the role of reigning champ that hardly anyone seems to believe can defend the NFC North title in \u201823.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t see anyone running away with this division in 2023 and it wouldn\u2019t surprise me to see somebody win it with an 11-6 record. There\u2019s no question that H2H performance will determine playoff positioning in the north. To that end, I\u2019ll pick Detroit to win the division and list Green Bay as my dark horse. The Bears aren\u2019t there yet and I don\u2019t believe the Vikes can repeat. I think only Detroit makes the playoffs and they lose in the first round.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2023 NFL NFC North division forecasting, analysis, picks and other information provided by articles.runyourpool.com. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":78478,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"\n2023 NFC North Forecast & Analysis | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2023 NFL NFC North division forecasting, analysis, picks and other information provided by articles.runyourpool.com.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/07\/24\/2023-nfc-north-forecast-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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