{"id":78568,"date":"2023-08-01T14:24:53","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T14:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=78568"},"modified":"2023-08-01T14:24:57","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T14:24:57","slug":"2023-afc-north-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/08\/01\/2023-afc-north-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 AFC North Forecast & Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

QB Joe Burrow\u2019s calf injury and his possible extended absence from the field is the story of the NFL this week and a great place to start in the 2023 AFC North Forecast & Analysis. Every regular season game that Burrow is off the field for the Bengals fundamentally changes the landscape for the outcome of this division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to pre-season projections, about 2.3 games separate the first and fourth-ranked teams for total wins in the AFC North. Cincinnati is favored for the playoffs (70% Playoff Probability), but that will change with the recent injury to Burrow. Baltimore is given a 58% chance to make the playoffs, while Cleveland (44%) and Pittsburgh (36%) are considered longshots in the preseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are those reasonable odds? To find out, let\u2019s reference each team\u2019s 2023 Strength of Schedule<\/strong><\/a> (SoS), Projected Wins<\/strong><\/a> (PW), and Playoff Probability<\/strong><\/a> (POP) as look-ahead metrics that will help us determine how the AFC North may play out in 2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baltimore Ravens<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 12th most difficult, PW: 10.1, POP: 58.4% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baltimore had a pretty solid off-season. QB Lamar Jackson got his contract, and the Ravens upgraded the receiving core with OBJ, Nelson Agholor and first-round pick Zay Flowers. But, stalwart Ben Powers is gone from the Oline, and Rock Ya Sin is what\u2019s been signed to replace the gimpy Marcus Peters at CB. Baltimore traditionally finds success running the ball and playing D — a more wide-open O with Lamar at the helm is a scary proposition in \u201823, and this defense allowed less than 19 points per game in \u201822.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent injury to the Bengal\u2019s Joe Burrows can not be underestimated in determining Baltimore\u2019s 2023 capacity to win the division and lock down a playoff spot. Certainly, the Ravens\u2019 Week 2 game at home versus the Bengals looms large. Based on Burrow\u2019s projected recovery timeline, this would be before or early in his return, making this a great week to pick the Ravens in your survivor pool. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Net-net. I think the injury to Burrows is significant enough to bump up the Ravens’ POP by at least 10 full points (to 68%), and their projected wins by one. So, overperformance is my prediction for the Ravens in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cincinnati Bengals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 13th most difficult, PW: 10.9, POP: 70.3% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Orlando Brown Jr. was a massive signing for the Bengals in the offseason; truly one of the best players ever at his position. Draftees DE Myles Murphy, CB D.J. Turner, and SS Jordan Battle should help add even more punch to a defense that allowed less than 20 points a game in 2022. Not to beat a dead horse, but that means nothing if Joe Burrow isn\u2019t lining up at the pivot for the Bengals each week. Dude was that O in \u201822. It all runs through him and there is not a backup or FA out there to be signed that can fill Burrow\u2019s shoes while he\u2019s out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
AP Photo\/Aaron Doster<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s say Burrow is banged-up until Week 4, October 1st, at the Titans. That means that the Bengals will need to find a way to win against the Browns, Ravens, and Rams in September without their star QB. We\u2019ve already covered how good the Ravens are on D and the Browns are very persnickety as a divisional rival. I\u2019m trying to get to the logic that maintains the Bengals’ POP rating as it sits but I can\u2019t. Without Burrow, this team is at least two games worse and I would be loath to pick them in my survivor pool to start the season.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cleveland Browns<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 16th easiest, PW: 9.1, POP: 44.0%<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2023 Cleveland Browns will feature a fresh wide receiver room with Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, and Marquise Goodwin, an overhauled Dline with newcomers Za\u2019Darius Smith, Siaki Ika, and Dalvin Tomlinson, and a re-tooled coaching staff with coordinator Jim Schwartz and special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone. The Browns needed to rely on free agency during the offseason because their \u201823 draft picks were few and far between (thank you, DeShaun Watson).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order to analyze PW and POP for the Browns, we once again must refer to the Joe Burrow injury in Cincinnati. The Browns are scheduled to play the Bengals in Week 1 to help kick off the 2023 NFL season. The line on that game adjusted from Bengals -2.5 to Bengals -1.5 in the immediate wake of the injury announcement. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s enough. With any other QB at the helm to start the regular season, Cleveland is a legendary Week 1 survivor pool pick, pushing the Browns PW total up by at least one game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pittsburgh Steelers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 8th most difficult, PW: 8.6, POP: 36.0% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2023 Steelers\u2019 offseason is marked by modest free agency gains, but a very promising draft haul. OT Broderick Jones is a stud OT that will keep some lucky NFL QB upright for the next 10 years. CB Joey Porter Jr. is as Steelers as you get, and if you don\u2019t like the image of beastly Darnell Washington lining up at the inline TE on a snowy day in Pittsburgh, you just don\u2019t like football. The arrival of OL Isaac Seumalo will help the run game, though fading CB Patrick Peterson is no replacement for a primetime Cam Sutton, now departed to Detroit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Steelers aren\u2019t scheduled to play the Bengals until the end of November, so the Joe Burrow injury is less of a thing head-to-head but still needs to be factored in the PW metric. Weirdly (to me) the Steelers are projected to win fewer<\/em> games than the Cleveland Browns, even before <\/em>Burrow\u2019s injury. I don\u2019t get that. The Steelers are a pretty darn good football team. I can live with a PW total of around 9, but given JB\u2019s injury in Cincy, I think the Steelers POP has to jump a few points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wrap-Up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

My entire opinion on this division is on-hold pending a clear vision of the severity of Joe Burrow\u2019s injury. I hope to hell the young man is back for Week 1, but if that doesn\u2019t happen and his return is delayed, there are significant implications for how the AFC North may play out. Cincinnati, after all, has the Browns, Ravens, and divisional rival Titans all in town in the first four weeks of the season. A poor start in the division and\/or conference could loom large going into the postseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That sets up the Ravens as my preseason favorite for the AFC North. Baltimore has Houston, Cincy, Indy, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee to start — that\u2019s six conference games and three division games to open the season — an incredible opportunity for the Ravens. The surest betting proposition I will ever give you is to take the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 of your 2023 NFL survivor pool over the Houston Texans.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are the Browns and Steelers out of it? Nah. Don\u2019t think so. The Cincy situation is so tenuous and this division is such a bloodbath generally that either of these teams could squeak out a winning season and maybe even a playoff entrance depending on how the chips fall. That said, the Steelers have more juice entering the season (IMO), so I\u2019ll take them to finish with 9 wins. The Browns got DeShaun, but everyone else is new, so I\u2019ll take them to finish with 7 wins.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The AFC North is set to be one of the most competitive divisions in football. We’re forecasting what should be a great season for all teams.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":78569,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"\n2023 AFC North Forecast & Analysis | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The AFC North is set to be one of the most competitive divisions in football. 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