{"id":78678,"date":"2023-08-07T15:14:31","date_gmt":"2023-08-07T15:14:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=78678"},"modified":"2023-08-07T15:14:34","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T15:14:34","slug":"afc-south-forecast-and-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/08\/07\/afc-south-forecast-and-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"AFC South Forecast &#038; Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The general consensus going into the 2023 season is that the AFC South is the Jaguars division to lose. That may be so. But jammed in there with Jacksonville are the Titans, Texans, and Colts &#8212; all teams that have little <em>to<\/em> lose in 2023. And, baby, that means X factors!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a data standpoint, I\u2019ll tell you up-front that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a statistically good pick to a) win the AFC South, b) perform well as a <a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/07\/17\/survivor-trends-and-traps-nfc-and-afc-south\/\">survivor pool pick<\/a> early in the season when they are at home for five of the first six, and c) pay-off anytime they are an <a href=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/2023\/07\/17\/survivor-trends-and-traps-nfc-and-afc-south\/\">underdog Against the Spread<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, there are many other insights we can glean about the AFC South from a look at the data. Let\u2019s reference each team\u2019s 2023 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/2023-nfl-strength-of-schedule\/#:~:text=2023%20NFL%20Strength%20of%20Schedule%3A%20%20%20,%207.5%20-135%20%2028%20more%20rows%20\"><strong>Strength of Schedule<\/strong><\/a> (SoS), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.teamrankings.com\/nfl\/\"><strong>Projected Wins<\/strong><\/a> (PW), and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.teamrankings.com\/nfl\/\"><strong>Playoff Probability<\/strong><\/a> (POP) as look-ahead metrics that will help us determine how the AFC North may play out in 2023.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Houston Texans<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SoS: 7th easiest, PW: 6.1, POP: 13.5%&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Houston had an epic draft, taking QB C.J. Stroud #2 overall, before trading back up to take dynamic EDGE Will Anderson Jr. third overall. In free agency, the Texans also made notable additions, picking up RB Devin Singletary, OG Shaq Mason, TE Dalton Schultz, WR Robert Woods, and CB Shaquill Griffin, among others. New HC DeMeco Ryans brings a defensive mindset to the game, but is that going to be enough to turn this very young group of individual players into a reliable defensive unit over the course of 17 games?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I can live with an optimistically projected win total of six given the Texans\u2019 schedule, which includes six games against non-2022-playoff teams to end the \u201823 season. That said, the Houston Texans&#8217; true playoff probability or PoP this season is <em>none percent<\/em>. But, Houston has the chance to play spoiler and strut their stuff a few times this season. To that end, I like this team as a gutsy Week 2 survivor pool play versus the Colts, and I am likely to lay money on the Texans ATS any week in which their matchup has Houston playing the role of an away underdog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Indianapolis Colts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SoS: 3rd easiest, PW: 7.0, POP: 22.2%&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The story of the Colts offseason &#8211; and the man who will carry the hopes of the franchise into the future &#8211; is Rd. 1 draftee, QB Anthony Richardson. If you have perhaps been living under a rock and have not heard, the dude is a crazy athlete and one of the NFL\u2019s more exciting raw prospects ever at the QB position. That said, Richardson needs time to mesh with the people around him, and the Colts need to get serious about upgrading their secondary if the franchise expects to compete for the AFC South title. CB Julius Brents (taken in Rd. 2) should help, as will the pass rush of EDGE Rd. 4 draftee Adetomiwa Adebawore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think if everything goes right for the Colts in 2023, they can get to that 7-win total. Take that third easiest schedule ranking and park it for a moment &#8212; the Colts O has a rookie QB (backed by Gardner Minshew), an annoyed RB in Jonathan Taylor, and a middling group of pass catchers. All that to go with the aforementioned defense that tends to give up a lot of passing yards, and in chunks. As such, I struggle to find more than six wins for the Colts on their 2023 schedule. I wouldn\u2019t touch them in a survivor pool format unless I was picking <em>against<\/em> them. As for ATS, the Colts are a terrible favorite (1-6 in \u201822), so always pick against them in that scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jacksonville Jaguars<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SoS: 12 easiest, PW: 9.7, POP: 63.1%&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2023 Jaguars offseason was productive. The Jags re-signed Evan Engram, who from Week 13 \u201822 until the divisional round grabbed 27 combined first downs and TDs, second to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pff.com\/nfl\/players\/travis-kelce\/7844\">Travis Kelce<\/a> in that span. The Jags drafted well also, picking up an instant starter in OT Anton Harrison from OKL. He, along with Rd. 3 draftee, RB Tank Bigsby, will be expected to add punch to the running game, especially around the goal line. The Jags went heavy on D on the final day of the draft but may lack a clear slot CB entering the \u201823 season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even at under 10 projected wins (a prediction I would argue is low), the Jaguars have a better than 63% PoP, largely because they are not seriously expected to be challenged in the AFC this season. Let\u2019s not forget, the Jags have the 12th easiest schedule in the league in \u201823, largely because they get the Colts and Texans each twice, who are ranked low coming in. I like JAX to go 11-6, dominate early-on in a survivor format, and improve versus 2022 ATS, both in division games, and as a favorite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tennessee Titans&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SoS: 9th easiest, PW: 7.2, POP: 24.6%&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2023 Tennessee Titans will feature the backup QB everyone wants to see: KTY draftee Will Levis. If and when Ryan Tannehill struggles, HC Mike Vrabel <em>will <\/em>pull the trigger and put the big arm in. Andre Dillard was signed and Peter Skronski was drafted to fill holes on the Oline, but a big one remains at Center. RB Tyjae Spears needs to do enough to spell stud RB Derrick Henry on his way to 2,000 yards, which is the kind of season Henry needs to have to get this team into the playoffs, and get himself a good deal in \u201824.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Titans_Football_23213168526939.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-78679\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog-assets.runyourpool.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/07151013\/Titans_Football_23213168526939.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blog-assets.runyourpool.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/07151013\/Titans_Football_23213168526939-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog-assets.runyourpool.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/07151013\/Titans_Football_23213168526939-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) listens to instructions from running backs coach Justin Outten during an NFL football training camp practice Monday, July 31, 2023, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo\/George Walker IV)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, let\u2019s dial in on the Titans PW (7.2) and PoP (24.6%). Five of the first six games on the Titans&#8217; schedule are tough (NO, LAC, CLE, CIN, IND, BAL); I could see them coming out of this stretch maybe 2-4, and I don&#8217;t like them as a survivor before Week 8 when they play Atlanta at home. In the second half of the season though, the Titans get ATL, TBY, CAR, IND again, and HOU twice. I could see the Titans going 5-1 in that set of games. But (big but) TEN also gets Jacksonville twice in the second half of the season, meaning any hope of a playoff run probably comes down to Week 18 vs JAX. Free tip: TEN is gold ATS when they won the previous week, and the Titans play HOU in Week 17, so keep an eye on that game\u2019s outcome for Week 18 guidance vs. JAX.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Wrap-Up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ll take Jacksonville to win the AFC South and make a little playoff run in 2023. I don\u2019t mind the Titans as a darkhorse team, but in order to make the playoffs they will have to find a way to play above their grade in the first half of the season, and beat JAX twice in the second half, and I don\u2019t think that will happen. Indy and Houston are really just a show this year, folks. Sit back, watch, and enjoy a glimpse into the future of what a couple of very special QBs have in store for the AFC South over the next few seasons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It might not be the most competitive division in football this season, but there&#8217;s plenty to talk about in the AFC South. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":78680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AFC South Forecast &amp; Analysis | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It might not be the most competitive division in football this season, but there&#039;s plenty to talk about in the AFC South.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/08\/07\/afc-south-forecast-and-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AFC South Forecast &amp; 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