{"id":78908,"date":"2023-08-14T14:37:20","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T14:37:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=78908"},"modified":"2023-08-14T14:37:24","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T14:37:24","slug":"afc-east-forecast-and-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/08\/14\/afc-east-forecast-and-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"AFC East Forecast & Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The AFC East is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. No fewer than three teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs and a couple are being touted as championship contenders. Without question, the landscape of the division changed when Aaron Rodgers was traded to the Jets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That the Jets have invested heavily to surround Rodgers with talent is well-known. What\u2019s lesser understood are the moves that the Bills, Dolphins, and Pats have (or have not) made in response. Every team in the AFC East has a difficult schedule and the intra-divisional record for each will be huge in determining playoff seedings come January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To determine how things might play out in the AFC East in 2023, we\u2019ll reference each team\u2019s Strength of Schedule<\/strong><\/a> (SoS), Projected Wins<\/strong><\/a> (PW), and Playoff Probability<\/strong><\/a> (POP) as look-ahead metrics. Let\u2019s get into it!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buffalo Bills<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 4th most difficult, PW: 10.6, POP: 67.1% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bills fell short in \u201822 when Von Miller went down and they have not done much to upgrade their D since at any level. The same can be said of the RB position, where the uninspiring Damien Harris will replace Devin Singletary. The receiving core will get a boost from newly drafted TE Dalton Kincaid, but Stefon Diggs still needs a legit #2 WR to take some of the double coverages away. Where the Bills did spend this offseason was on the interior of the Oline: Guards David Edwards and Connor McGovern were signed as free agents, while G O’Cyrus Torrence was drafted early. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Bills 2023 schedule and keeping the state of this defense in mind, I don\u2019t have a hard time getting to their projected 10 or 11-win total, but I\u2019d put their playoff probability closer to about 60%. The downgrade comes from the very chewy middle of the Bills \u201823 schedule, which includes tilts against the Bengals, Jets, Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys over a seven-week stretch. In survivor formats, the Bills are a good pick in Week 2 vs. the Raiders, and again in Week 3 at the Commanders. In ATS formats, the trends dictate picking Buffalo ATS in away games, but not against divisional opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miami Dolphins<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 3rd most difficult, PW: 9.5, POP: 51.1% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Dolphins were to have two first-round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft but traded one away to the Broncos and lost another to tampering, so Miami was never going to have much of a draft. Short of picking up CB Jalen Ramsey, who was promptly injured, the Dolphins haven\u2019t added a lot, unless you count signing QB Mike White to backup the concussion-prone Tua Tagovailoa, who has missed 15 games over his first three seasons. Oline depth is very suspect going into the season, though the RB room is excellent with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. now joined by electrifying receiving specialist Devon Achane.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Dolphins 2023 schedule, I think an over\/under on a win total of 8.5 is about right and I can live with a PoP of a little over 50% in this tough division. December and early January are going to be brutal, with games against the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills all to be played — the Buffalo game on January 7 could well decide who goes to the playoffs and who goes home in the AFC East. In survivor formats, Miami is scheduled to play at home against Carolina\u2019s rookie QB in Week 6 and I like them. In ATS formats, look for the Dolphins as a home favorite, or road underdog, in conference games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New England Patriots<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: Most difficult in NFL, PW: 7.8, POP: 27.2% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a new OC in town in the contentious Bill O\u2019Brien, and the Pats have added a few pieces through free agency to try and fix their dysfunctional offense. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and TE Mike Gesicki provide modest receiving options, while OTs Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson will be asked to toughen up the Oline unit and protect young QB Mac Jones. The defense got better with the selection of island CB Christian Gonzalez and another good pass-rushing option in DE Keion White.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Patriots\u2019 2023 schedule, I truly struggle to find more than 5 wins and I give them a zero percent chance of making the playoffs. Their schedule is brutal: In addition to 6 division games against quality competitors, the Pats must also face PHI, DAL, NYG, NO, PIT, and KC this season, which are all playoff-caliber teams. That said, I just don\u2019t like the Patriots’ odds this year. In survivor formats, Week 6 at Las Vegas, Week 9 vs. Washington, and Week 10 vs. the Colts may be your best picks. In ATS formats the Pats were an atrocious 2-7 as an underdog last season, but as a favorite, they went a solid 5-2-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York Jets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 7th most difficult, PW: 9.7, POP: 53.4% <\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Jets had a busy offseason. In addition to trading for QB Aaron Rodgers, the Jets added WR Allen Lazard, WR Mecole Hardman, WR Randall Cobb, and OT Billy Turner to the O through free agency, and drafted C\/G Joe Tippman and OT Carter Warren. Oh, and they also replaced their OC, so, yes, the Jets are going all-in on offense this season. On defense, first-round draft pick DE Will McDonald will join a talented group already composed of Carl Lawson, Jermaine Johnson, and Michael Clemons. They\u2019ll need a strong pass rush again to make up for weaker safety play.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Jets\u2019 2023 schedule, the back half is easier than the front. In the first 9 weeks of the season, the Jets must face Buffalo, Dallas, KC, Philly, the Giants, and the Chargers. In the last 9 weeks of the season, they will get the Raiders, Falcons, Texans, Commanders, and Patriots to end the regular season. I have no problem envisioning a 10 or 11-win season for the Jets and I think they will make the playoffs. In survivor formats, I\u2019d wait to use the Jets later in the season when their schedule softens. In ATS formats, just be aware the lines the Jets get in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at QB will be very different compared to last season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wrap-Up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not what I thought I would end up writing when I started this analysis, but here goes: The New York Jets are going to win the AFC East in 2023. The Bills will finish up a game or so behind and make it in as a wildcard. Tua will get injured again in Miami and the Dolphins will miss the playoffs. The Pats will be poor in 2023 but have the talent to steal a few games with good coaching.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The AFC East is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in football. Who will come out on top? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":78909,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"\nAFC East Forecast & Analysis | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The AFC East is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in football. 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