{"id":78912,"date":"2023-08-15T14:13:45","date_gmt":"2023-08-15T14:13:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=78912"},"modified":"2023-08-15T14:13:48","modified_gmt":"2023-08-15T14:13:48","slug":"nfc-east-forecast-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/08\/15\/nfc-east-forecast-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"NFC East Forecast & Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Washington Commanders aside, the NFC East is perhaps the most competitive division in the NFL. Dallas, New York, and Philadelphia are all capable of making it into the playoffs, and – spoiler alert – I think there\u2019s a chance they all will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certainly, this is a division where any of the top three teams are capable of beating one another in a given week, which is a good thing because divisional record dominance will likely determine who in the NFC East plays at home, who plays on the road, and who watches from their couch come playoff time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To determine how things might play out in the NFC East in 2023, we\u2019ll reference each team\u2019s Strength of Schedule<\/strong><\/a> (SoS), Projected Wins<\/strong><\/a> (PW), and Playoff Probability<\/strong><\/a> (POP) as look-ahead metrics. Let\u2019s get into it!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dallas Cowboys<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 15th most difficult, PW: 10.0, POP: 68.2% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

RB Ezekiel Elliott and #2 leading receiver TE Dalton Schultz have departed; backfilling their roles are the underwhelming veteran duo of RB Ronald Jones and WR Brandin Cooks. Dak is back, the Oline is among the best in the league, and new toy TE Luke Schoonmaker has been added to the arsenal. First-round pick DT Mazi Smith will join a defensive front that was already good against the run, while third-round rookie LB DeMarvion Overshown will likely need to play a lot in \u201823 (\u2018cuz Leighton Vander Ouch).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Cowboys’ 2023 schedule, I can see this team legit getting to 10 wins i.e. it\u2019s not a hard schedule, but it is a tough December with games against Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, and Detroit. Everything in my mind screams that three playoff teams can come out of the NFC East in 2023. In your survivor pool, pick the Cowboys to win Week 3 at Arizona. If you are an ATS player, pick Dallas to win ATS any week after they lose<\/em> ATS the previous week (trust me; it\u2019s a thing<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York Giants<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 14th most difficult, PW: 7.9, POP: 37.9% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Giants replaced most of the bunch of guys that caught the ball last season with another bunch of guys via free agency; namely WR Parris Campbell, WR Jamison Crowder, and TE Darren Waller. They\u2019ll be joined by speedster draftee WR Jalin Hyatt. When fully healthy, as he is rumored to be now, RB Saquon Barkley is a beast, but this Oline may need more than draftee C John Michael Schmitz to patch holes in the run and pass-blocking game. The defensive line got better with the signing of DT A’Shawn Robinson but I\u2019m not sure the other free agents or draftees will add much to this poor run D.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Giants 2023 schedule, I do not get the projected win total of 7.9 the data models show. I see at least 9 wins for the Giants this season and no less than a 50% playoff probability. That said, New York\u2019s entire season will come down to an away game at Philly in Week 16, and a rematch in Week 18 when the Giants get the Eagles at home to end the season. In survivor formats, you can comfortably pick the Giants in Week 2 at Arizona, or in Week 7 when they are home to Washington. In ATS formats, pick the Giants as underdogs in non-conference games, as they may be at Miami in Week 5, or at Buffalo in Week 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Philadelphia Eagles<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 13 easiest, PW: 10.7, POP: 77.0% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WR Olamide Zaccheaus and running backs Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift were added as offensive reinforcements during free agency, and draftee OT\/G Tyler Steen will join the league\u2019s best offensive line from \u201822. But it is on the defensive side of the ball where the Eagles went big in the 2023 offseason, adding a couple of beasts to the defensive line rotation in draft picks DT Jalen Carter and DE Nolan Smith, as well as secondary help in the form of dangerous CB Kelee Ringo, and swiss army knife S Sydney Brown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Eagles 2023 schedule, I don\u2019t see less than 11 wins and I can envision as many as 14. I think their odds to win the division are about 90% and the Eagles’ true PoP is approaching 100% — simply put, I just don\u2019t think any other team in this division is better than the Eagles over 17 games. In survivor formats, feel free to deploy the Eagles anytime in Week 1 through Week 5 when Philly will face NE, MIN, TBY, WAS, and LAR (all games the Eagles should handily win). In ATS formats, look for the Eagles when they are at home, and avoid them when they are away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington Commanders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 10th most difficult, PW: 6.7, POP: 21.9% <\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When you are a struggling organization, the point of the NFL offseason is to re-tool your team to make it more competitive. Did the Commanders do that in 2023? In a word, no. Washington was rumored to be interested in a handful of starting-caliber QBs but instead opted to sign journeyman Jacoby Brissett as a backup. Much attention, however, was paid to the Oline, with free agents OT Trent Scott and G Andrew Wylie signing, and C Ricky Stromberg and G\/OT Braeden Daniels joining via the draft. On D, the Commanders have a decent pass rush, but are soft against the run and in the middle and have done nothing to improve in that regard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Commanders\u2019 2023 schedule, I don\u2019t see where they are getting 7 projected wins from; I think 5 is more likely and I give the Commanders a none-percent chance of making the playoffs in 2023. In survivor pool formats, maybe take a gamble on the Commanders in Week 1 at home to Arizona but don\u2019t come complaining here if that doesn’t pay off. After a win ATS in 2022, the Commanders were 4-2-1 (67%) ATS the following week — Do with that what you will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wrap-Up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Net-net, I think there is one elite team in this division and two that are pretty good. The Philadelphia Eagles are the class of the NFC East and one of the very best teams in the NFL. They will win this division by 1.5 games or more over the second-place finisher.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York and Dallas will battle it out for the right to go to the playoffs as a wildcard and hope for runaway winners in the rest of the NFC divisions that would allow both clubs in. Washington is not a factor in \u201823, other than perhaps as a late-season spoiler of some other team\u2019s dreams.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Can the Eagles come out on top once again in what should be a competitive NFC East? Find out in our forecast. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":78935,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"\nNFC East Forecast & Analysis | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Can the Eagles come out on top once again in what should be a competitive NFC East? 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