{"id":79035,"date":"2023-08-21T19:29:46","date_gmt":"2023-08-21T19:29:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=79035"},"modified":"2023-08-21T19:30:05","modified_gmt":"2023-08-21T19:30:05","slug":"nfc-west-forecast-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/08\/21\/nfc-west-forecast-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"NFC West Forecast & Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The NFC West has three distinct tiers. On top, are the San Francisco 49ers, which is one of the best teams in the NFC and a legit championship contender to start the season. On the next tier are the competitive Seattle Seahawks. On the bottom tier are the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals, two franchises with nowhere to go but up in 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the strength of the rival NFC East Division, it may be tough for an NFC West team to get in on a wildcard in 2023. In my mind, that could put Seattle in a \u2018win and you\u2019re in\u2019 situation come late December and early January, but we\u2019ll get into that a bit more when we examine the Seahawks schedule, below. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, we\u2019ll reference each team\u2019s Strength of Schedule<\/strong><\/a> (SoS), Projected Wins<\/strong><\/a> (PW), and Playoff Probability<\/strong><\/a> (POP) as look-ahead metrics for the 2023\/24 season — Let\u2019s go!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arizona Cardinals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 11th most difficult, PW: 4.8, POP: 6.2% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

QB Kyler Murray starts the season on injured reserve and star WR DeAndre Hopkins left town, along with most on the interior Oline. OT Paris Johnson was drafted in the first round, but here\u2019s my bet he is moved inside for the \u201823 campaign. The biggest loss on defense is CB Byron Murphy who was by far the Cardinals\u2019 best DB in \u201822. Draftees EDGE B.J. Ojulari and CB Garrett Williams will try to add something to what may turn out to be the league\u2019s worst pass defense in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Cardinals’ 2023 schedule, I don\u2019t see 5 wins, I see about 3 or 4, if they\u2019re lucky. I also give the Cards a zero percent chance of making the playoffs but a great chance at a Top 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. In survivor formats, pick against<\/em> the Cardinals whenever they play against a team with a better record. In ATS formats, just keep in mind that the Cardinals were a mere 17% ATS against divisional foes in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los Angeles Rams<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 15th easiest, PW: 6.5, POP: 20.9% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh my, the Rams. To say 2022 ended and the 2023 season has begun in a state of disarray is an understatement. This franchise has lost a lot since they took the \u2018ship what seems like an incredibly long eighteen months ago. WR Demarcus Robinson has been signed to take some pressure off of the recouping Cooper Kupp. G\/C Steve Avila was drafted to toughen up a soft and talentless interior Oline, and QB Stetson Bennett is the new guy in the wings for when Matt Stafford goes down this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Rams 2023 schedule, I think the data models are whack to come up with an over\/under of 6.5 wins for this team. I think this team is just as bad as the Cardinals to start the season and maybe worse and I struggle to find four likely wins on their 17-game schedule. In survivor formats, the Rams will have a shot in Week 4 at Indy, and Week 6 versus Arizona. In ATS formats, look for the Rams as a home underdog, as they will be often this season (~75% ATS in \u201822).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco 49ers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 5th easiest, PW: 10.9, POP: 80.7% <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the signing of DT Javon Hargrave, and the drafting of S Ji\u2019Ayir Brown and K Jake Moody, there wasn\u2019t much action in the 49ers preseason, but they didn\u2019t need that. They needed QB Brock Purdy to be healthy heading into the \u201823 and it looks like that\u2019s what they got. That said, the loss of OT Mike McGlinchey can not be underestimated for this offense — dude was a perfect pairing with Trent Williams on the opposite side. The depth is gone on D but the newcomers don\u2019t look like a downgrade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the 49ers 2023 schedule, I have no problem with 11 wins as projected and could go to 13. The weak strength of schedule is apparent in the second half, which features tilts against Tampa Bay, Arizona, Washington, and the Rams. In survivor formats, look for the 49ers in Week 2 at the Rams and again in Week 11 versus Tampa Bay. A definite home \u2018dog, Seattle was 3-1 (75%) when visitors were favored in 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seattle Seahawks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

SoS: 10th easiest, PW: 8.8, POP: 52.0% <\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201823 was a good off-season for the Seahawks. WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were already a top receiving pair and JSN was added in the Slot through the draft to give QB Geno Smith a wonderful new weapon. RB Zach Charbonnet is may be RB2 out of the \u201823 draft, and fellow draftee OT\/G Anthony Bradford is no slouch. CB Devon Witherspoon could be a great pick in the first round (or not) and DE\/OLB Derick Hall is slated to add pressure from the EDGE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the Seahawks\u2019 2023 schedule, I think Seattle is going to have a rough road to claim a wildcard playoff spot. The first half of the season includes away games at Detroit, NYG, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. The back half gets the Seahawks games against the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers (twice), which is gnarly and will likely decide if the Seahawks get into the playoffs. In survivor formats, I feel like the Week 10 visit to Jacksonville scheduled for November 12th is a potential trap game for the 49ers. In ATS formats, the 49ers were very strong in \u201822 at home (82%), and as a favorite (71%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wrap-Up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I believe this is the San Francisco 49ers division to lose in 2023. The Seahawks to me are a wildcard contender that I want to cheer for in the NFC West. The Rams and Cardinals are going nowhere in 2023 but – because they play each other twice and either Houston or Indy once – are worth a gutsy flyer here and there in certain survivor and ATS formats. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Can the Seahawks follow up on their surprise season? Will the Niners reign supreme? That and more in our NFC West forecast. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":79036,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-nfl-football"],"yoast_head":"\nNFC West Forecast & Analysis | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Can the Seahawks follow up on their surprise season? Will the Niners reign supreme? 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