{"id":83343,"date":"2023-09-15T14:07:49","date_gmt":"2023-09-15T14:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/articles.runyourpool.com\/?p=83343"},"modified":"2023-09-15T14:07:53","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T14:07:53","slug":"pac-12-sec","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.runyourpool.com\/articles\/2023\/09\/15\/pac-12-sec\/","title":{"rendered":"Pac-12 > SEC?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For years, the SEC has been THE powerhouse conference, claiming five of the eight national championships contested so far. Go back before the FBS playoff system and the title count goes to a staggering 43 national championships all-time. That is straight domination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This season though, it\u2019s the Pac-12 that\u2019s making noise, with a record eight teams in the Top 25 entering Week 3. Is this a blip on the radar or the mark of things to come? Without getting too far into the weeds, let\u2019s take a look at each conference to see what\u2019s happening, what\u2019s changing, and how that may shape outcomes both this season and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pac-12<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After two weeks of play, the Pac-12 is 21-4 (84% win rate). Notable conference victories so far include Colorado over TCU, Utah over Florida, and Washington State over Wisconsin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As of this writing, the AP Top 25 poll includes eight Pac-12 teams: USC #5, Washington #8, Utah #12, Oregon #13, Oregon State #17, Colorado #21, Washington State #23, and UCLA #24. Here\u2019s what those team\u2019s combined Week 3 schedule looks like, including the advance point spreads as of Tuesday, September 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USC (#5) is on a bye week<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Washington (#8) is favored -16 at Michigan State<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Utah (#12) is favored -30.5 vs. Weber State<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oregon (#13) is favored -37.5 vs. Hawaii<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oregon State (#17) is favored -24.5 vs. San Diego State<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Colorado (#21) is favored -23.5 vs. Colorado State<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Washington State (#23) is on a bye week<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UCLA (#24) is favored heavily (no line as of this writing) vs. North Carolina Central<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m going to go ahead and say that not one of Week 3\u2019s slate of games looks competitive and at least seven of these Pac-12 teams will remain in the Top 25 entering Week 4 &#8212; a couple of them can probably move up a little with convincing wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why is any of that special?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because, before today, the Pac-12 has never in its history had more than six ranked teams in a given week. As a matter of fact, the SEC is the only other conference to ever have eight teams in the Top 25 &#8211; something that has happened quite often, though it doesn\u2019t look like it will again this year (see more below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That the Pac-12 is having its renaissance moment in 2023 is significant because this is also the conference\u2019s swan song. In 2024, USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon will all join the (really) Big Ten, and a tradition of west-coast rivalries that goes back to 1915 will be gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is the performance we are seeing in the Pac-12 this season a harbinger of what we can expect out of intraconference play in the Big 10 next season when those teams jump? Will the level of play in the Pac-12 disintegrate as a result? Or will the change in alignment simply mean there&#8217;s more room for teams like Washington State, or the trending Colorado Buffaloes, to lay claim to the top of the conference and a higher spot in the national rankings?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beats me. At this point in 2023 all I can tell you is that the Pac-12 is statistically a much better conference than the SEC. Let\u2019s get into the Southeastern Conference data and I\u2019ll explain why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SEC<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After two weeks of play, the SEC is 23-6 (79% win rate). Notable conference losses so far include Texas over Alabama, the aforementioned Utah over Florida, and FSU over LSU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As of this writing, the AP Top 25 poll includes five SEC teams: Georgia #1, Alabama #10, Tennessee #11, LSU #14, and Ole Miss #17. Here\u2019s what those team\u2019s combined Week 3 schedule looks like, including the advance point spreads as of Tuesday September 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Georgia #1 is favored -27.5 vs. South Carolina<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Alabama #10 is favored -32 vs. South Florida<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tennessee #11 is favored -6.5 at Florida<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>LSU #14 is favored -10 at Mississippi State<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ole Miss #17 is favored -19.5 vs. Georgia Tech<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I predict Tennessee will lose out-right at Florida in Week 3, and drop well back in the rankings entering Week 4. I also don\u2019t see another SEC team that can climb into the Top 25 based on Week 3 schedule. So where does that leave the SEC as the college football schedule moves beyond its opening stanzas and into the meat of the 2023 schedule? No place good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m not a schmuck. Georgia is the best team in the country until someone proves they aren\u2019t. Alabama, on the other hand, has clearly taken a step back as a program. I already told you I think Tennessee will lose to an unranked opponent this week, and once might LSU looks very, very shaky.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those are four marquee teams that are used to Top 10 rankings year in and year out and the SEC\u2019s record of 21 separate weeks with eight teams in the Top 25 may not be challenged for a long time. But it <em>will<\/em> be challenged because (excuse the pun) the tide is turning in the FBS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The transfer portal, greater competition for elite southern athletes, and a decade of fierce intraconference competition should have made every team in this conference stronger. But, in 2023, vulnerability is a good way to describe anyone other than Georgia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s compared to recent history where things typically came down to watching the SEC championship game each year to determine who was going to go on to clobber some other unfortunate conference in the national championship. But I think that\u2019s over now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">So is the Pac-12 now better than the SEC?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a word, yes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Certainly, the reformation of the Big 10 in 2024 will not make the SEC\u2019s fight to remain dominant any easier. Given how stacked the Big 10 will be, it\u2019s very reasonable to assume as many as seven or eight teams from that new conference will find themselves in the Top 25 routinely. Meanwhile, the remaining teams in the Pac-12 will have a somewhat easier potential path to a championship game (the embarrassment that was Georgia vs. TCU last January notwithstanding).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s also impossible to factor out the magical draw through the transfer portal that Coach Prime has inspired in Colorado. My guess is that other schools in the Pac-12 have taken note of this and we will see tidal-like movement of players in and out of the West Coast schools for the next few years.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You could say that the SEC schools can do the same, but athletes have to <em>want<\/em> to go to a school for that to work, which begs one simple question that I think gets to the heart of the SEC will continue to lose strength in the coming years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>If you are a blue chip player, looking to commit in 2024, which conference and school are you picking?&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Georgia is still a very good answer and maybe Alabama\u2019s loss was an aberration. But there is no question that both the Pac-12 schools moving to the Big 10, and those remaining behind, are currently on a better trajectory than those in the SEC, and of a shinier, more modern brand.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is it too late to save the Pac-12? We might be overreacting, but it&#8217;s been quite the start to the season for the Pac. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":83344,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[797,47],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","category-ncaa-college-football"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pac-12 &gt; SEC? | The Poolside Post<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is it too late to save the Pac-12? 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