Baylor Bears vs. Texas State Bobcats Picks & Preview | NCAAFB Week 1

On Saturday at 7:00 PM ET, the Texas State Bobcats will visit the Baylor Bears.

The Bobcats are expected to lose by at least two TDs (currently +27.5) against the Bears (with an over/under of 62.5 points).

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Game Info for Baylor vs. Texas State

• Game Day: Saturday, September 2, 2023
• Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Location: Waco, Texas
• Stadium: McLane Stadium

Baylor Pick Insights

• Baylor put together a 7-6-0 ATS record last year.
• Baylor was favored by 27.5 points or more two times last season, and covered the spread in both.
• A total of nine Baylor games last season hit the over.

Baylor Stats & Insights

• Baylor racked up 5.9 more points per game (32.2) than Texas State surrendered (26.3) last season.
• Baylor was 7-2 against the spread and 6-3 overall in games when it scored more than 26.3 points last season.
• Baylor averaged 413.8 yards per game last season, 52.4 more yards than the 361.4 Texas State allowed per contest.
• When Baylor totaled more than 361.4 yards last season, the team was 6-2 against the spread and 5-3 overall.
• Last year Baylor averaged 182.4 yards per game on the ground, 65.9 more than Texas State allowed per contest (116.5).
• Baylor had a 7-2 ATS record and a 6-3 overall record when the team ran for more than 116.5 yards last season.
• Last year Baylor had 17 turnovers, three fewer than Texas State had takeaways (20).

Baylor’s Best Players

• Blake Shapen had a passing stat line last year of 2,790 yards with a 63.3% completion rate (233-for-368), 18 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and an average of 214.6 yards per game.
• Last year Richard Reese took 198 carries for 972 yards (74.8 per game) and scored 14 touchdowns.
• Craig Williams put up 557 yards on 101 carries (42.8 yards per game), with four rushing touchdowns last year.
• Monaray Baldwin amassed 33 receptions for 565 yards and four touchdowns last year. He was targeted 53 times, and averaged 43.5 yards per game.
• Gavin Holmes also impressed receiving last season. He had 27 receptions for 521 yards and four touchdowns. He was targeted 39 times.
• Josh Cameron’s stat line last season: 386 receiving yards, 28 catches, on 45 targets.
• Garmon Randolph’s hard work last season put up a stat line of 4.5 sacks, six TFL and 37 tackles.
• Dillon Doyle was a wrecking ball on the field, collecting 82 tackles and two interceptions last year.
• Last season Christian Morgan had a huge stat line of three interceptions, 45 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and four passes defended.

Texas State Betting Insights

• Texas State compiled a 5-7-0 ATS record last year.
• Texas State did not cover the spread when an underdog by 27.5 points or more last season (in one opportunity).
• Last year, six Texas State games hit the over.

Texas State Pick Insights

• Texas State racked up 5.7 fewer points per game (21.1) than Baylor surrendered (26.8) last season.
• Texas State was 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 overall in games when it recorded more than 26.8 points last year.
• Texas State racked up 47.2 fewer yards per game (323.8) than Baylor gave up (371) per matchup last season.
• When Texas State churned out over 371 yards last season, the team was 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 overall.
• Last year Texas State piled up 103 rushing yards per game, 45.2 fewer than Baylor allowed per contest (148.2).
• Last season Texas State had a 1-1 ATS record and a 1-1 overall record in games the team rushed for more than 148.2 yards.
• Texas State had 17 giveaways last season, while Baylor had 19 takeaways.

Texas State’s Best Players

• Layne Hatcher completed 61.9% of his passes to throw for 2,654 yards and 19 touchdowns last season.
• Lincoln Pare averaged 63.3 rushing yards and scored five rushing touchdowns. Pare complemented his rushing performance with 2.4 receptions per game to average 19.1 receiving yards.
• Calvin Hill ran for one touchdown on 338 yards a year ago.
• Ashtyn Hawkins was targeted 6.1 times per game and collected 582 receiving yards and seven touchdowns over the course of 2022.
• Marcell Barbee averaged 24.9 receiving yards on 3.5 targets per game in 2022, scoring one touchdown.
• Charles Brown averaged 24.8 receiving yards per game on 3.4 targets per game a season ago.
• Nelson Mbanasor proved to be a strong defender last year, recording six sacks, six TFL and 25 tackles.
• Tory Spears had an impressive defensive performance last season with 58 tackles, one TFL, 0.5 sacks, and one interception.
• Last year DeJordan Mask picked off three passes to go along with 23 tackles, one TFL, and three passes defended.