By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
November is at our doorsteps, and Tuesday night brings along the moment when the college football season gets real – the first edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings. Sure, there are conferences to be won and bowl games to be assigned soon enough, but what we all want to know and are interested in is who gets into the final four and who gets the shaft. Every year these Tuesday rankings updates incite anger, debate, and intrigue, and the spotlight only gets more intense as we get deeper into the season. Georgia is delivering their usual dominance, Ohio State and Michigan are crashing into their season-ending rivalry for all the marbles, and after that…spots are up for grabs in November and December.
Week Nine included a stunner in Lawrence, Kansas that gave Oklahoma its first loss, while the rest of the big guns in CFB held serve another week. The Big 12 is wide open, there are questions about who is the team to beat in the PAC 12, and this weekend’s games will further drive the narrative toward the college football playoff season. Let’s dive in:
Must Watch “Main Screen” Games
#25 Kansas State @ #7 Texas (-4) – 12 pm ET – The Longhorns got along nicely without Quinn Ewers as backup Maalik Murphy fit the bill against BYU. Now he gets a Big 12 level test against the defending conference champions who would love to jump into the conversation with a win on Saturday. I’m not sure they have the firepower to score with UT but they could make it interesting with an early turnover.
#14 Missouri @ #1 Georgia (-16) – 3:30 pm ET – Missouri might be the quietest 7-1 SEC team in the history of college football, mainly because their starting schedule was tremendously soft. Now they get a chance to make a ton of noise as they head into Athens. The line shows you that there’s very little thought of that from Vegas oddsmakers, who have Missouri as a bigger underdog than UGA’s opponent last week in Florida, who they beat by 23.
#10 Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State (+6) – 3:30 pm ET – I know what you’re thinking – it’s too early for Bedlam. The craze-filled nickname for this age-old rivalry tells you how much this Saturday is in OKlahoma, but it;’s usually a few weeks later on the calendar. Regardless, both teams are 4-1 in the Big 12, and the Cowboys could insert themselves into the logjam at the top of the conference if they can clip a Sooners team reeling from a road loss last weekend.
#5 Washington @ #24 USC (+4) – 7:30 pm ET – Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies are keeping the train on the tracks, but this Saturday could be a rock that derails if they’re not in the right mindset. UW goes on the road to play Caleb Williams and the Trojans, who quite simply have an electric offense and a feeble defense. Your early reaction would be to predict a shootout for the ages here, and that may lend its hand to USC hanging tight in this spot.
#13 LSU @ #8 Alabama (-3.5) – 7:45 pm ET – Here is the primetime perfection we live for as CFB fans. It’s LSu heading into Tuscaloosa to play the Crimson Tide, with both teams fully rested and coming off of a bye week. If I’m Nick Saban I’m zeroing in on Malik Nabers, the wideout that makes the LSU offense go all day and night. The line here shows that it’s a toss-up game that comes down to the last few possessions.
Tier Two “Second Screen” Games
#3 Florida State @ Pittsburgh (+21.5) – 3:30 pm ET – The Pitt Panthers are quite overmatched and Jordan Travis should continue his torrid, but it’s worth noting that Pitt played spoiler to Louisville in a very similar spot a couple of weeks ago. I’m not saying…I’m just saying – the Panthers can hang within three scores, right?
Army @ #17 Air Force (-18.5) – 2:30 pm ET – I’m the unofficial bandwagon leader for Air Force, the undefeated team that nobody’s watched. I’m here to tell you they won (and covered) in a snow-filled game at Colorado State and now they stay home in the Mountains to host a fellow Armed Forces branch. You know who I’m riding with here – the team that would be in a 12-team playoff if it existed this season.
#23 James Madison @ Georgia State (+5.5) – 3:30 pm ET – A sneaky good matchup here in the Sun Belt featuring 6-2 and 8-0 programs. It’s quite annoying that JMU is ahead of schedule and not even yet bowl-eligible as a CFB program, but that;’s not stopping them from mowing down everyone in their paths so far this year.
The “Tablet Game” Night Capper
#20 UCLA @ Arizona (+2.5) – 10:30 pm ET – Well, last week we had the Zona Wildcats in this same nightcap spot, the line was stinky, and sure enough Arizona won outright as a home dog against Oregon State. Now with UCLA coming into town, it’s practically the same spread and spot. Ironically, I feel like a flip of mindset might be in order here.
Midnight Hawaii Snack is on a one-week hiatus after a Hawaii thrashing on the island, and the sadness to follow.
Week Nine Plays To Watch
(3-2 Last Week!)
Texas -4 – Maalik Murphy should improve on his debut and if the defense shows, they win.
Oklahoma -6 – I see this as a weirdly close game but the Sooners make more plays late to pull away and cover.
Pittsburgh +21.5 – Simply too many points for a team that’s beaten top ACC talent this season already.
Air Force -18.5 – It may be a slog to get there but Army won’t move it. Period.
UCLA -2.5 – Flipping on the Arizona take from last week, as they’re not the team to do it two weeks in a row.