Table of Contents
By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
SMILE BECAUSE IT HAPPENED
Always a bittersweet feeling, right? It feels like we JUST hopped on to the magic carpet ride that was the 2022 College Football Season – now the ride is coming to an end. From the outset, we knew that CFB was headed to the wild wild west of a brand new NIL, transfer portal-filled season that provided lots of headlines, Woj bombs, and funny sponsorship along the way. On the field, we got something that a lot of college football fans have been pining for since the four-team playoff was created. A “little guy” in TCU getting not only to the playoff but the national championship to have their chance against perennial powerhouse Georgia – it is finally happening.
Looking back on this whirlwind of a season, I’m loving this final act set for next Monday because my vibe check was all over these two teams all season. My favorite play of the CFB year was betting the UNDER in Georgia games, knowing how punishing that defense could be. That hit with regularity early on but in recent weeks, offense has caught up to the Dawgs as Ohio State did. MY second tenet of 2022 was riding the TCU bandwagon when MANY were hopping off early just dying to hand them their first loss. It took a while for that to happen and they had some fantastic spread covers along the way. Now the stage is set for the big one, a classic David vs goliath matchup for all the marbles (and NIL endorsement money).
While CFB IS coming to an end, our NFL Playoff contest is now LIVE for more of your postseason football fix!
MONDAY, JANUARY 9th
CFP National Championship Game – Georgia (-13) vs TCU – 7:30 pm ET
THE SPREAD
When the line was released shortly after Ohio State’s field goal to win sailed wide left, frankly I was stunned. While I completely understand the defending National championship being the prohibitive favorite, I did not expect to see a double-digit spread as Georgia is currently a 13-point favorite. I wrote down a look-ahead line of Georgia -9 on New Year’s Eve, and that was before I saw Ohio State dismantle their defense in the first half. This is a classic case of “styles make fights” and TCU will be presenting a lot of the same problems on offense that Ohio State did in the semifinal. Big and tall targets downfield, a run game that can find the second level faster than you would think, and a QB that can move on his feet to make plays.
What Georgia will have is a WEEK to figure all of this out. Kirby Smart and co. will be busy all week drawing up blitzes and schemes to confuse Max Duggar, but enough to steamroll the Horned Frogs and cover this bug number? It seems doubtful. There are enough different ways that TCU can score that should allow them to stay inside of two scores, and you know they’ll add wrinkles to everything we saw from them in Glendale.
THE POINT TOTAL
The Over/Under is set for the National Championship at or around 63 points – modest and just low enough to justify firing on the over if you’re in for an exciting night. Sure, this COULD devolve into a knockdown, drag-out, game, and lay low, but since we have both teams on a dome stadium track-style surface, there’s no reason to think like that. Even a slow-starting, nerve-filled first quarter doesn’t keep you out of the game on that number for the point total.
Alternatively, If you’re not FEELING the shootout vibes you could look into a first-half or first-quarter UNDER play and go after a different target altogether. Truth be told, an UNDER first-quarter play and OVER total game play could be just what the doctor ordered. Bottom line – if you think both teams are getting to 30 points, hammer the over now before it rises due to public popularity.
PROPS
One way to liven up the CFP National Championship experience is with game or player props, here are some beauties I’ve picked out to keep an eye on:
If you’re thinking that nerves do hit both sides, you’ll have to look at the UNDER in the first-half point total, currently at 31.5. Taking it a step further, UNDER 16.5 points in the first quarter is an immediate gratification bet to look at from this same angle.
If you’re here for the Cinderella storyline but don’t want to commit to the upset, your favorite play is TCU to win the first half at +270 odds – yummy.
Individually, I will be interested in betting the OVER on Stetson Bennett’s passing yard total for the game. People forget he was tracking for 300 yards in last year’s game, and then soared over his total throwing for 398 in the victory.
On the TCU side of the ball, the OVER I’ll have to play is yards (all-purpose) for Emeri Demercado. That dude is their secret sauce that always wiggles free at the right moments to move the chains for the Horned Frogs.
BOWL SEASON WEEK 3 RECAP
In the marathon buffet of bowl games last week, there was a leveling off on my hit rate BUT we managed a 12-13 record the last 7 days. We head into the LAST game of the season in positive units for bowl season and the full season tally is on the doorstep of 50% – an impressive late-season climb, to say the least.
Bowl Season: 23-19 ATS, Season Overall: 58-59 ATS
ALEX’S PLAYS
TCU +13
First Half – UNDER 31.5 points
Game – OVER 63 points
THE DEETS
Alternate Broadcasts: Because one broadcast of a big game isn’t enough for ESPN. If you’re looking for a stand-up comedy routine during the game the Pat McAfee field stream is your best bet. The tech nerds will enjoy the command center broadcast, and us degens will love the all-22 camera so we can see exactly who to blame for our prop bets.
What to eat: It’s the big one, so play the hits with wings, sliders, and chips. Also, a good time to audition for any Super Bowl Sunday snacks
Weirdest Angle: It’s the “slow creeper” angle – betting the first quarter under 16.5 and parlaying it with the total game OVER. A true risk-reward play on predicting the game flow.