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On Feb. 1, Purdue was 22-1 and riding a nine-game winning streak into the last month of the regular season. Since, the Boilermakers have dropped games to Northwestern, Maryland, and Indiana twice. Despite the rough February form, Purdue is still one of the primary contenders to win the national championship.
Zach Edey is West Lafayette’s main event and the favorite for National Player of the Year. The 7-foot-4 Canadian is averaging a double-double (22.1 points, 13.1 rebounds per game) and hasn’t scored in single figures in 47-straight contests dating back to January 2022. He’s virtually unplayable and will be at the epicenter of any potential run to the national championship.
Last National Championship: None
Last Final Four: 1980
2023 Title Odds: +1200 (as of March 4, 2023)
Why Purdue Will Make a Run
The simple answer is Edey. I don’t know how another team could stop him from getting his. Limit his effectiveness? Sure. But even on a bad day, he’s still getting 15 points, shooting 50 percent from the field, nabbing eight rebounds, and affecting everything the opponent wants to do near the rim. And that’s the best-case scenario. He’s more than a nightmare to guard – you have to try to score around this guy, too.
Purdue ranks well in efficiency metrics that measure offense and defense. As much as Edey does, it’s not all him. The Boilermakers go nine deep and aren’t shy to rotate. Nearly everyone who gets minutes has a defensive rating under 100. This team plays very disciplined defense – it has committed the sixth-fewest personal fouls in Division I – and as the best squad in the country in rebounding margin, Purdue usually gets the ball once it’s up for grabs.
Why Purdue Will Exit Early
The Boilermakers are a fairly balanced team between defense and offense, but what’s non-negotiable is the tempo of the game. Edey is agile for someone his size, but he can’t be used to his best effectiveness if he’s lugging his weight up and down the court and not set up properly to defend or attack the basket. If Purdue comes up against an opponent that can force it to play at a quicker pace, it could be difficult for the Boilermakers to get the most out of their superstar.
The Big Ten notoriously hasn’t produced a national champion since 2000, and one explanation often preferred by fans of the league is the difference between how the conference is officiated versus how the NCAA Tournament is called. If this is something you ascribe to, then Purdue could be in some trouble. The Boilermakers average the second-most free throw attempts per game in the Big Ten, and Edey is comfortably atop the league in total free throws shot this season. If the Boilermakers can’t get the normal looks at the line that they’ve been accustomed to for months, it could seriously impact their scoring.
What It’ll Take to Win
Of course, Edey will need to shine for Purdue to be at its best. But he scored 33 with a 15-of-19 clip from the field, plus 18 rebounds, and the Boilermakers still lost to Indiana. In that game, the rest of the team shot 36.8 percent from the field. The supporting cast has to chip in more for Purdue to capture its first triumph of the NCAA Tournament era.
Braden Smith will be a major part of Purdue’s success or failure. The freshman has been tasked with managing the point for one of the premier teams in the nation, and he’s done so excellently. He’s one of the top assisters in the Big Ten, the best three-point shooter Purdue has, and only averages 1.9 turnovers per game despite overseeing the primary ball-handling duties. If Purdue is to win the national championship, Smith will have to steady the ship in all six showdowns.
