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What’s better than a Cinderella? A small-conference champion that most people couldn’t place on a map shocking the world, upending outfits with mountains of resources in comparison, is the primary cause for March Madness’s celebration. The best part is – the question isn’t if it will happen, but whom? Enter our Cinderella candidates.
I watch a lot of college basketball, but I’m no savant. I can’t tell you with certainty who will slide into that slipper. But what I can do is give you a list of some of the most likely culprits and leave the rest to you and your beautiful, bracket-filling mind. These are a handful of the double-digit seeds that you should keep an eye on for second-weekend runs.
Watch Out for These Cinderella Candidates
13 Iona
First Round Matchup: 4 UConn
First and foremost, Iona has Rick Pitino. Putting aside any opinions on him as a person, he’s proven himself to be quite the basketball coach over the decades. He is not the ideal man to patrol the opposing sideline when you’re in the NCAA Tournament.
Beyond Iona’s elite coaching, this team has a menacing backcourt of Walter Clayton Jr. and Daniss Jenkins. Both are excellent scorers, with Clayton especially dangerous from deep, and are tough to handle on the defensive end, too. The Gaels like to play pressure defense, and these two are at the forefront of that attack. Iona has the best assist/turnover ratio in the MAAC, and it spreads the ball around outstandingly. Cinderellas are often energized by heroic backcourts, and Iona has that.
Plus, Nelly Junior Joseph is a machine on the glass and in the paint. He’s nearly averaging a double-double (15.1 points, 9.4 rebounds per game) and offers Iona a punishing option down low. This team’s backcourt is very strong, and Joseph provides the foil so opponents can’t just load up on the perimeter.
13 Kent State
First Round Matchup: 4 Indiana
Speaking of special guards who could fuel a run, enter Sincere Carry. The fifth-year senior started his career at Duquesne but has spent the last two years at Kent State, and his scoring has blown up with the Golden Flashes. His 17.6 points per game average this season is fourth in the MAC, and he can really fill it up. Carry gave Toledo fits in the MAC Final to the tune of 26 points, effectively getting to the hole at will and connecting from deep. If he’s putting the ball in the bucket with confidence, his opposition should be concerned.
Kent State also thrives at protecting the rim and forcing its opponents into bad situations. The Golden Flashes are top 20 in Division I in turnovers forced per game (16.13) and are atop the MAC in blocks per contest (3.94). A big reason for the turnovers is Mallque Jacobs, whose 2.7 steals per outing is second-best in the nation. Kent State is in the top 40 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Indiana must take good care of the ball to advance.
The Golden Flashes also have a chip on their shoulder. It’s a cliché, but it’s true – Kent State dealt with some drama in its quest for a tournament bid last season, and it used that disappointment as a rallying cry to make amends in 2023. How often do we see turnarounds like this in this sport? You’ve got a very hungry group here eager to finally have its shot in the Big Dance.
12 Charleston
First Round Matchup: 5 San Diego State
There are only four teams in the country with at least 30 wins heading into the NCAA Tournament, and Charleston is one of them. Pat Kelsey’s Cougars are in the midst of the program’s best-ever season and will be a trendy pick to make a run this March.
Charleston is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. It’s fourth in Division I in rebounds per game (40.5) and offensive rebounds per game (13.65), and it’s a full team effort on the glass. Every single member of the rotation chips in at least 2.0 boards per contest – opponents can’t center their focus on one rebounder and expect to get away with it.
Ante Brzovic is the team’s leading rebounder and a serious load inside. He’s excellent defensively, and he’s crucial to everything Charleston tries to do offensively. He averaged 16.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game in the CAA Tournament – if he can continue that sort of display, then the Cougars are very dangerous.
12 Oral Roberts
First Round Matchup: 5 Duke
Oral Roberts is another one of those four 30-win squads, and it has a name that you’re likely to recognize – Max Abmas is still a Golden Eagle, and he’s still very, very good at basketball. For the second time, the guard was named Summit League Player of the Year, and it wasn’t really a question. His 22.2 points per game is sixth-best in the country, and Abmas is ridiculously efficient considering his usage. We’ve already seen him do amazing things in this tournament before. I would not want to be an opponent tasked with dealing with him in a single-elimination format.
This is otherwise an excellent shooting team that puts a premium on getting up tons of shots. Its 47.9-percent mark from the field and 36.9-percent clip from beyond the arc help contribute to putting up 84.2 points per contest, the third-best rate in Division I. The Golden Eagles also crash the boards hard, getting second-chance opportunities on the offensive end and enforcing one-and-done possessions on the defensive side.
We’ve seen Oral Roberts go on a Cinderella run not long ago. With Abmas still around and Oral Roberts boasting a potent offense that can bury unprepared opposition, it’s perfectly plausible that we see it again in 2023. A red-hot Duke stands in the way, but we have seen crazier things than a surprise 12-over-5 upset.
