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QB Joe Burrow’s calf injury and his possible extended absence from the field is the story of the NFL this week and a great place to start in the 2023 AFC North Forecast & Analysis. Every regular season game that Burrow is off the field for the Bengals fundamentally changes the landscape for the outcome of this division.
According to pre-season projections, about 2.3 games separate the first and fourth-ranked teams for total wins in the AFC North. Cincinnati is favored for the playoffs (70% Playoff Probability), but that will change with the recent injury to Burrow. Baltimore is given a 58% chance to make the playoffs, while Cleveland (44%) and Pittsburgh (36%) are considered longshots in the preseason.
Are those reasonable odds? To find out, let’s reference each team’s 2023 Strength of Schedule (SoS), Projected Wins (PW), and Playoff Probability (POP) as look-ahead metrics that will help us determine how the AFC North may play out in 2023.
Baltimore Ravens
SoS: 12th most difficult, PW: 10.1, POP: 58.4%
Baltimore had a pretty solid off-season. QB Lamar Jackson got his contract, and the Ravens upgraded the receiving core with OBJ, Nelson Agholor and first-round pick Zay Flowers. But, stalwart Ben Powers is gone from the Oline, and Rock Ya Sin is what’s been signed to replace the gimpy Marcus Peters at CB. Baltimore traditionally finds success running the ball and playing D — a more wide-open O with Lamar at the helm is a scary proposition in ‘23, and this defense allowed less than 19 points per game in ‘22.
The recent injury to the Bengal’s Joe Burrows can not be underestimated in determining Baltimore’s 2023 capacity to win the division and lock down a playoff spot. Certainly, the Ravens’ Week 2 game at home versus the Bengals looms large. Based on Burrow’s projected recovery timeline, this would be before or early in his return, making this a great week to pick the Ravens in your survivor pool.
Net-net. I think the injury to Burrows is significant enough to bump up the Ravens’ POP by at least 10 full points (to 68%), and their projected wins by one. So, overperformance is my prediction for the Ravens in 2023.
Cincinnati Bengals
SoS: 13th most difficult, PW: 10.9, POP: 70.3%
Orlando Brown Jr. was a massive signing for the Bengals in the offseason; truly one of the best players ever at his position. Draftees DE Myles Murphy, CB D.J. Turner, and SS Jordan Battle should help add even more punch to a defense that allowed less than 20 points a game in 2022. Not to beat a dead horse, but that means nothing if Joe Burrow isn’t lining up at the pivot for the Bengals each week. Dude was that O in ‘22. It all runs through him and there is not a backup or FA out there to be signed that can fill Burrow’s shoes while he’s out.
Let’s say Burrow is banged-up until Week 4, October 1st, at the Titans. That means that the Bengals will need to find a way to win against the Browns, Ravens, and Rams in September without their star QB. We’ve already covered how good the Ravens are on D and the Browns are very persnickety as a divisional rival. I’m trying to get to the logic that maintains the Bengals’ POP rating as it sits but I can’t. Without Burrow, this team is at least two games worse and I would be loath to pick them in my survivor pool to start the season.
Cleveland Browns
SoS: 16th easiest, PW: 9.1, POP: 44.0%
The 2023 Cleveland Browns will feature a fresh wide receiver room with Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, and Marquise Goodwin, an overhauled Dline with newcomers Za’Darius Smith, Siaki Ika, and Dalvin Tomlinson, and a re-tooled coaching staff with coordinator Jim Schwartz and special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone. The Browns needed to rely on free agency during the offseason because their ‘23 draft picks were few and far between (thank you, DeShaun Watson).
In order to analyze PW and POP for the Browns, we once again must refer to the Joe Burrow injury in Cincinnati. The Browns are scheduled to play the Bengals in Week 1 to help kick off the 2023 NFL season. The line on that game adjusted from Bengals -2.5 to Bengals -1.5 in the immediate wake of the injury announcement. I don’t think that’s enough. With any other QB at the helm to start the regular season, Cleveland is a legendary Week 1 survivor pool pick, pushing the Browns PW total up by at least one game.
Pittsburgh Steelers
SoS: 8th most difficult, PW: 8.6, POP: 36.0%
The 2023 Steelers’ offseason is marked by modest free agency gains, but a very promising draft haul. OT Broderick Jones is a stud OT that will keep some lucky NFL QB upright for the next 10 years. CB Joey Porter Jr. is as Steelers as you get, and if you don’t like the image of beastly Darnell Washington lining up at the inline TE on a snowy day in Pittsburgh, you just don’t like football. The arrival of OL Isaac Seumalo will help the run game, though fading CB Patrick Peterson is no replacement for a primetime Cam Sutton, now departed to Detroit.
The Steelers aren’t scheduled to play the Bengals until the end of November, so the Joe Burrow injury is less of a thing head-to-head but still needs to be factored in the PW metric. Weirdly (to me) the Steelers are projected to win fewer games than the Cleveland Browns, even before Burrow’s injury. I don’t get that. The Steelers are a pretty darn good football team. I can live with a PW total of around 9, but given JB’s injury in Cincy, I think the Steelers POP has to jump a few points.
Wrap-Up
My entire opinion on this division is on-hold pending a clear vision of the severity of Joe Burrow’s injury. I hope to hell the young man is back for Week 1, but if that doesn’t happen and his return is delayed, there are significant implications for how the AFC North may play out. Cincinnati, after all, has the Browns, Ravens, and divisional rival Titans all in town in the first four weeks of the season. A poor start in the division and/or conference could loom large going into the postseason.
That sets up the Ravens as my preseason favorite for the AFC North. Baltimore has Houston, Cincy, Indy, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee to start — that’s six conference games and three division games to open the season — an incredible opportunity for the Ravens. The surest betting proposition I will ever give you is to take the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 of your 2023 NFL survivor pool over the Houston Texans.
Are the Browns and Steelers out of it? Nah. Don’t think so. The Cincy situation is so tenuous and this division is such a bloodbath generally that either of these teams could squeak out a winning season and maybe even a playoff entrance depending on how the chips fall. That said, the Steelers have more juice entering the season (IMO), so I’ll take them to finish with 9 wins. The Browns got DeShaun, but everyone else is new, so I’ll take them to finish with 7 wins.
NFL FAQs
How do you play football survival pool?
Players pick one team each week they think will win the game outright. They may only pick a team ONCE per season, meaning you can't pick the same team twice in one season. If their pick is correct, the player survives another week and continues to play. An incorrect pick eliminates the player from the contest entirely. This is sometimes called an elimination or suicide pool. The last person standing wins.
How to make a football pool?
A football pool generally requires the creation of a shareable spreadsheet (like Google Sheets) so that members may pick teams. Then depending on the game type, creators must use several kinds of formulas (e.g. CountIF), data validation, and conditional formatting. Or, you can just use football pool hosting service like RunYourPool where we do all the work for you!
How to run a weekly football pool?
In order to run a football pool, you must first crown yourself as Pool Commissioner. Begin by picking a game type like Survivor or Pick'Em. You'll want to establish rules before inviting friends, family, and colleagues to join. As commissioner, you make the rules and also need to enforce them equally and fairly.
What is a football survivor pool?
In a Football Survivor Pool, players choose one team weekly they think will win. Usually, a team can be picked one time per season. Picks are made "straight up," no spreads necessary. If a pick is correct, members survive another week. An incorrect pick eliminates the player, unless a mulligan is used.
How does a football pool work?
Football pools are games of skill played among a group of people. There are a variety of pool types to fit every players needs, from casual to competitive. Pool commissioners can set up pools manually, or use a hosting service like RunYourPool whiel still customizing your own settings. Some examples include NFL Squares, NFL Survivor, NFL Pick 'Em, and Playoff Brackets.
What is an NFL pickem pool?
In an NFL pick’em pool, simply pick the outcome of each NFL game throughout the season. You can pick straight up winners or losers, or pick each game against the spread.
How to play a football pool?
The way one plays a football pool varies on the game type. For example, in Survivor, you pick one team to win each week and can't pick that team again. Guess wrong and you lose. Another example is Pick'em Pools in which you simply pick every game each week.
How does a fantasy football pool work?
Fantasy football pools don’t involve a traditional fantasy football draft. You can have as many members in your pool as you’d like, meaning no more 12 or 14 team limits! You pick a new lineup of players each week, and once you use a player once, you can’t use them again for the rest of the season.
What is a fantasy football pool?
A fantasy football pool is similar to a traditional fantasy football league but without the draft. Pick a new lineup each week, and once you use a player, you can’t use them for the rest of the season. Your players will receive points based on their in-game stats, and the member with the most points at the end of the season is the winner.
What is a football pool?
"Football Pool" is a broad term for a group of people competitively guessing the outcome of one or more football games. There are many types of formats, each assigning winners differently. They can be played informally between friends or through a more formalized system. They are often considered a great alternative to fantasy football given the ease of playing, although there are fantasy football pools as well.
How do football pool squares work?
There are different kinds of football square pools. Most have a 10x10 grid with one team for the rows and columns. In an attempt to win, participants select a square where they believe the last digit number of each team's score will intersect at the end of each quarter, and the game's end.
How do you play football squares pools?
To play a football squares pool, you're going to want to pick the squares with the best odds. As winners are determined by the point totals at the end of each quarter, try to consider options where scores are most common. Some of the most popular squares include 7-3, 7-0, 7-7, and 0-0. Numbers divisible by seven are good starting points.
How many squares in a football pool?
In a traditional football squares pool, a grid is sectioned off into 100 squares with 10 columns and 10 rows. This accounts for a direct relationship between each possible digit from 0 to 9 on both the X and Y axis. For smaller square grids like 5x5, multiple numbers can be assigned to each column and row.
How to play squares football pools?
Football squares are played by creating a grid, in which Team 1 takes the column and Team 2 the rows. In some cases, participants may claim as many squares as they like. In others, commissioners limit them to one. At the quarter times and end of the game, the winner is decided at the point the scores final digit intersect.
What is a football squares pool?
Also called Grid, Block, or Box Pools, Football Squares Pools can be played with any single game, but are most popular during the Super Bowl. Pool members claim squares on a 25, 50, or 100-square grid by putting their information in the square. Game scores are matched to the winning square(s), usually with winners being determined every quarter.
How to read a football pool sheet?
In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.
How do you play football credits pool?
In the credits format, all players start with the same number of credits. Players make picks each week by risking a certain number of credits on games, assigning more credits to the picks with a higher confidence level. Members receive double the credits risked for each win. The member with the most credits at the end of the season wins.
What is a football credits pool?
In Football Credits Pools, players start with the same number of credits. They then make picks each week by risking a number of credits on games, assigning more to the picks they have more confidence in getting right. Members double credits risked for each win. The member with the highest credits at the end of the season wins.
How to run a football pool?
How you decide to run a football pool varies greatly depending on the game type. In each case, however, you'll want to determine the rules and settings before you begin inviting members to join you. You'll want to clearly establish how score will be kept, how tiebreakers work, and how winners are decided before anything else.
How do you play football confidence pool?
A football confidence pool is played straight up, not with a point spread. Not only do members pick the winning teams, they must back up their picks by giving them a relative confidence ranking. Your score reflects the number of confidence points given to winning teams. So if your confidence for a team winning is '1', then you can only win one point at most. If your confidence for a team winning is '5', then you can win five points for a win. The member with the most credits at the end wins.
What is a football confidence pool?
"Football Confidence Pool" refers to how you rank the teams that you think will win each week. For example, in the NFL, there are often 16 games weekly. In this scenario, you would rank each game from 16 to 1, based on the your confidence in that team winning.
How do you play football margin pool?
Margin pools are an NFL pool format that rewards members for picking a winning team each week. Pool commissioners can decide whether they award points equal to a winning teams margin of victory or the point spread for that game. When a commissioner chooses the point spread option, this format is often referred to as an NFL Underdog Pool.
What is a football margin pool?
In a Football Margin Pool, you are awarded points for picking a winning team. Pool commissioners get to decide whether they award points equal to a winning teams margin of victory or the point spread for that game. The player with the most points at the end of the season wins.
How do you play football 33 point pool?
The football 33 pool format is a casual pool where members are each assigned an NFL team (these pools are 32 members max, as there are 32 NFL teams). Members win when their team scores 33 points. Options for changing the target score, or having the closest to the target win each week is also available.
What is a football 33 point pool?
In the football 33 pool format, each member is assigned a unique NFL team (32 members max). A member will win when their team scores 33 points. This is a casual pool where you can change the target score or the option to have the closest to the target that week win.
How to run a weekly football pool?
In order to run a football pool, you must first crown yourself as Pool Commissioner. Begin by picking a game type like Survivor or Pick'Em. You'll want to establish rules before inviting friends, family, and colleagues to join. As commissioner, you make the rules and also need to enforce them equally and fairly.
What is an NFL Playoff bracket pool?
NFL Playoff Bracket pools are simple NFL pool formats where members pick every round of the playoffs before they start in an attempt to predict every match up correctly. It's optional to configure a multiplier for each round, or add a tiebreaker option of total points in the Super Bowl.
How to make a football pool?
A football pool generally requires the creation of a shareable spreadsheet (like Google Sheets) so that members may pick teams. Then depending on the game type, creators must use several kinds of formulas (e.g. CountIF), data validation, and conditional formatting. Or, you can just use football pool hosting service like RunYourPool where we do all the work for you!
How to set up a football pool?
To set up a football pool, you'll need to first choose a pool type like Survivor or Pick'em. Then, you'll need to set the ground rules. As pool commissioner, you'll enforce these rules and make sure the game runs smoothly throughout the season. Many commissioners use pool hosting sites like RunYourPool to make it easier and more engaging.
What is a football power ranking playoff pool?
In a power ranking playoff pool, members rank all 12 NFL teams competing in the playoffs from strongest (12 points) to weakest (1 point). Picks are made only ONCE before any games begin. Members are awarded the number of points assigned to a team when they win. Commissioners can optionally set up a point multiplier for each playoff round.
What is a football confidence pool?
"Football Confidence Pool" refers to how you rank the teams that you think will win each week. For example, in the NFL, there are often 16 games weekly. In this scenario, you would rank each game from 16 to 1, based on the your confidence in that team winning. This is similar to the Playoff Pool Power Ranking, just less teams.
How to run a football pool?
How you decide to run a football pool varies greatly depending on the game type. In each case, however, you'll want to determine the rules and settings before you begin inviting members to join you. You'll want to clearly establish how score will be kept, how tiebreakers work, and how winners are decided before anything else.
What is a football playoff precision pool?
In a playoff precision pool, members attempt to pick the winner of every playoff game each week. You can decide if it’s straight up or on a point spread picks, but point totals are also added. Points are awarded for correct picks AND for how close to the correct combined point total they were.
How to read a football pool sheet?
In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.
What is a Super Bowl Prop Bets Pool?
A Super Bowl Prop Bet Pool is a fun and thrilling way to compete against friends and family during the big game! It's a simple questionaire of prop betting questions revolving around the Super Bowl, and whoever earns the most points based off correct answers wins!
How does a Super Bowl Prop Bets Pool work?
Pool members simply fill out a wide range of prop questions, each question worth a different value. Commissioners decide on the point value for each question, along with the amount of questions. Whichever member earns the most points based on corret answers wins the pool.
What is a football Super Bowl Squares pool?
Also called Grid, Block, or Box Pools, Football Squares Pools can be played with any single game, but are most popular during the Super Bowl. Pool members claim squares on a 25, 50, or 100-square grid by putting their information in the square. Game scores are matched to the winning square(s), usually with winners being determined every quarter.
What is a prop bet?
Prop bets are any sort of pick or wager on a game that has nothing to do with the score or the final score outcome. Props can range from game types, to team types and even player types - such as who will score the game's first and last touchdowns? Other props, such as novelty or exotic, feature bets on things such as the coin flip or the Super Bowl Halftime Show.
How to read a football pool sheet?
In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.