North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils Picks & Preview | NCAAFB Week 11

One of the top rushers in college football will be on display when Omarion Hampton and the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-2) host the Duke Blue Devils (6-3) on Saturday, November 11, 2023.

The Tar Heels are expected to win by at least two scores (currently -12.5) versus the Blue Devils. The over/under for this matchup is 50.5 points.

Create your Pick’em Pool with the Internet’s #1 pool creation and hosting platform. Get 15 friends together and play for free!
Start here >

Game Info for North Carolina vs. Duke

• Game Day: Saturday, November 11, 2023
• Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
• TV Channel: ACC Network
• Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• Stadium: Kenan Memorial Stadium

North Carolina Pick Insights

• So far this season, North Carolina has posted a 6-3-0 record against the spread.
• North Carolina is 1-2 against the spread when favored by 12.5 points or more this season.
• North Carolina has gone over in four of its nine games with a set total (44.4%).

North Carolina Stats & Insights

• North Carolina owns the 84th-ranked defense this year (390.3 yards allowed per game), and has been more effective on offense, ranking third-best with a tally of 518.8 yards per game.
• North Carolina sports the 50th-ranked defense this season (23.3 points allowed per game), and has been more effective on offense, ranking 12th-best with 39.1 points per game.
• North Carolina sports the 94th-ranked defense this year in terms of passing yards (239.4 allowed per game), and has been better on the other side of the ball, ranking eighth-best with 319.7 passing yards per game.
• North Carolina has the 76th-ranked defense this season in terms of rushing yards (150.9 rushing yards allowed per game), and has been better offensively, ranking 18th-best with 199.1 rushing yards per game.
• On offense, North Carolina has been a top-25 unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking sixth-best in the FBS by putting up a 51.2% third-down percentage. The defense ranks 74th on defense (39.3% third-down conversion rate allowed).
• With 18 forced turnovers (10th in the FBS) against seven turnovers committed (10th in the FBS), North Carolina’s +11 turnover margin is the fourth-best in college football.

North Carolina’s Best Players

• Drake Maye has recorded 2,803 yards (311.4 ypg) on 203-of-308 passing with 20 touchdowns compared to five interceptions this season. In addition, he’s added 254 rushing yards (28.2 ypg) on 81 carries while scoring six touchdowns on the ground.
• Hampton has 1,067 rushing yards on 175 carries with 12 touchdowns. He’s also tacked on 16 catches for 157 yards (17.4 per game) and one touchdown through the air.
• This season, British Brooks has carried the ball 66 times for 307 yards (34.1 per game) and two touchdowns.
• J.J. Jones’ leads his squad with 499 yards as a receiver. He’s racked up that yardage on 31 receptions (out of 45 targets) and scored one touchdown.
• Bryson Nesbit has hauled in 29 receptions totaling 440 yards, finding the end zone four times as a receiver so far this campaign.
• Devontez Walker has been the target of 40 passes and hauled in 28 grabs for 438 yards, an average of 48.7 yards per contest. He’s found the end zone six times through the air this season.
• Kaimon Rucker paces the team with eight sacks, and also has 10 TFL and 37 tackles.
• Cedric Gray is the team’s tackle leader this year. He’s picked up 84 tackles, six TFL, 4.5 sacks, and one interception.
• Alijah Huzzie has a team-leading three interceptions to go along with 36 tackles, one TFL, and three passes defended.

Duke Betting Insights

• So far this season, Duke has put together a 4-4-0 record against the spread.
• Duke is 0-1 against the spread when an underdog by 12.5 points or more this season.
• Duke games have gone over the point total in four out of eight opportunities (50%).

Duke Pick Insights

• From an offensive standpoint, Duke is compiling 340.4 total yards per contest (99th-ranked). It ranks 28th in the FBS on defense (329.1 total yards surrendered per game).
• Duke ranks 78th in the FBS with 25.7 points per game, but it has been lifted up by its defense, which ranks seventh-best by surrendering only 15.7 points per game.
• While Duke’s pass offense has been sputtering, ranking 14th-worst with 161.1 passing yards per game, its defense ranks 15th-best with just 179.3 passing yards allowed per contest.
• Duke ranks 38th in the FBS with 179.3 rushing yards per contest on offense, and it ranks 75th with 149.8 rushing yards given up per contest on the defensive side of the ball.
• In terms of third-down efficiency, Duke ranks 102nd in the FBS (35.5% third-down conversion percentage) and 56th defensively (37.1% third-down rate allowed).
• Duke has recorded 12 forced turnovers (73rd in the FBS) and committed 10 turnovers (32nd in the FBS) this season for a +2 turnover margin that ranks 45th in the FBS.

Duke’s Best Players

• Riley Leonard has thrown for 1,102 yards on 57.6% passing while tossing three touchdown passes with three interceptions this season. He’s also rushed for 352 yards with four scores.
• Jordan Waters is his team’s leading rusher with 101 carries for 564 yards, or 62.7 per game. He’s found paydirt 10 times on the ground, as well.
• Jaquez Moore has rushed for 481 yards on 86 carries with four touchdowns.
• Jordan Moore has hauled in 483 receiving yards on 36 receptions to pace his squad so far this season while scoring four touchdowns as a receiver.
• Jalon Calhoun has caught 31 passes and compiled 455 receiving yards (50.6 per game) with two touchdowns.
• Sahmir Hagans’ 35 targets have resulted in 19 catches for 154 yards.
• Aeneas Peebles leads the team with three sacks, and also has three TFL and 27 tackles.
• Duke’s top-tackler, Tre Freeman, has 66 tackles, one TFL, 0.5 sacks, and one interception this year.
• Myles Jones has a team-high two interceptions to go along with seven tackles, one TFL, and two passes defended.