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By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
Week 7 and there’s still one unbeaten left… the Eagles?
As we approach the end of October, quarterback controversies are running amok in places they normally wouldn’t. Good teams look really good. Bad teams look really bad. In other words, things are starting to form the way every NFL season does.
We didn’t ACTUALLY think the Jags were just going to be good all of a sudden did we?
Is Bailey Zappe fever the next pandemic we need to know about?
Is Kirk Cousins… good?
Quite an unusual series of questions right now.
As for the last week, brace yourself for the horror story below.
As soon as the Thursday night debacle in Chicago unfolded it became a bad omen of things to come. Unlike any other sport, betting the NFL specifically will give you more rollercoaster swings than anything else imaginable. It’s all about how you hold your breath for the big drops and prepare for what’s around the corner. Can’t have two bad weeks in a row, right? Right.
Let’s dive in to right the wrongs of last week.
Thursday Night Kickoff
Cardinals (-1.5) vs Saints – Kyler Murray and the quizzical Cardinals host a fellow 2-4 team in New Orleans with questions of their own. Really we’re all just trying to break this two game streak of incomprehensibly bad football games on Thursday. Cheers to at least a couple more touchdowns from Kyler or Alvin Kamara to save Al Michaels from retirement.
Titans (-3) vs Colts – A battle of 3-2 teams intra-division, this matchup always seems to be some sort of predictor who’s the favorite in the AFC South. Both Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan have found a certain level of decency under the helm, this game reeks of a 17-14 slugfest so I’m having a hard time betting the OVER here (42.5).
Bengals (-6) vs Falcons – A Jekyll and Hyde tale of two teams. The Falcons are a seemingly bad NFL team that just competes every week and finds a way to hang around, while the Bengals had all the expectations this season that have not been lived up to. Both sit at 3-3 here, and you have to feel that Joe Burrow finally cooks appropriately and keeps Cincy on track in a good spot at home.
Jaguars (-3) vs Giants – Despite the gap in records , the 5-1 giants are still catching points on the road against an underwhelming 2-4 Jags squad. Water finds it level, but in which direction for this game? Do the Jags revisit the early season magic from September? Are the Giants due to drop one after this surprise start? Everything seems to point to a Jags home win but this one confuses me.
Chiefs (-3) @ 49ers – An intriguing QB matchup of Mahomes vs Jimmy G on the west coast. If it sounds familiar it’s because this was the Super Bowl LIV matchup that almost anointed Garoppolo as a world champion. This time around, it’s a bitter Chiefs team that just dropped one at home to the Bills, so they’re coming in for blood. The 49ers should be up to the challenge on D, hence the moderate OVer/Under total of 48 points.
Chargers (-6.5) vs. Seahawks – I’m beating the oddsmakers to the punch here before the line is set, but this has the makings of a shootout. Justin Herbert and Geno Smith both take flight with the long ball in this game, and it will be interesting to see how the Chargers offense bounces back after MNF struggle vs. the Broncos in their 19-16 win. This is a”get right” game for both offenses, I’ll likely go with the Over 51 points
Night pick of the week
Patriots (-7.5) vs Bears – A Monday Night Football matchup that puts my Patriots up against my wife’s Chicago Bears. Always a touchy matchup in my household, and it’s being played under the shadow of the Zappe Fever Pandemic. It’s 2001 QB controversy all over again in Foxboro, and Zappe comes in against a Bears team that looked solid on defense, but anemic on offense in Week 6. Who knows what we get out of Justin Fields in primetime on the road?
THE “WHO CARES?” GAME
If you like bad football, tune in to the action in Vegas, where the 1-3-1 Texans come to Sin City to play the 1-4 lackluster Raiders. Josh McDaniels has got to be pretty heated with this start to his regime. The Texans are a bad team undoubtedly, but I love them against the spread in lots of spots like this so Texans +7.5 sounds like enough points to me. This should be ugly and close.
WEIRD VIBE PREDICTION OF THE WEEK
The Panthers had 80% of the public bets for their contest, so my weird vibe was rather mainstream and failed on us. This week I’m taking a completely new path, as my senses have taken on the week 7 card to the Big D, where it looks like Dak Prescott will make his return under center. Why do I go get the feeling that lowly Lions might show up and keep this within 8 points? I know that Dak is a better QB than Cooper Rush, but who does the offense run more smoothly with at the helm? Watch for Detroit to match scores and keep it tight.
WEEK 6 RECAP
Wow. Okay. That was bad. The Eagles pushing on SNF was the only joy (lol) amidst a traumatically horrible week of picks. Formal apology from me to you is right here, there’s no shaking a piss-poor card – everything that could go wrong did.
Week Two: 0-4-1 ATS
Season Overall: 16-15-1 ATS
EARLY WEEK 7 NFL PLAYS FOR ALEX
In the early window, I’m riding with Joe Burrow to continue the Chase connection against a susceptible Falcons secondary. Give me Bengals -6.
I’ve seen enough Tom Brady to know that he’ll have a big week when he looks the most down and out. Not sure they cover the biggest spread of the week against the Panthers but I’ll take my chances on Over 40.5 points.
This crappy team just loves to cover – why can’t they against a desperate and struggling Raiders squad? It’s a perfect hold-your-nose game, but I’ll take Texans +7.5.
As per my breakdown earlier, the Seahawks’ and Chargers’ offenses both get right against each other’s D and we have a shootout in LA that goes over the 51 point total.
Last but not last, riding with my Patriots and buying a half point. Patriots -7 at home on Monday Night.
Other leans: Ravens -6.5, Broncos -3, Lions +7.5
EATS AND DEETS
The best crowd: I think cracking some crabs at a Ravens/Browns tailgate could be a good ole fashioned mess of a Sunday for AFC North football.
Goofiest line: Bucs -11 on the road. Vegas betting big on Tom Brady and begging for Panthers bets.
Simultaneous screen count: Three-screener Sunday as we’re into the dog days of the NFL season. Buckle Up!
Tailgate pick of the week: Lobstah Rolls and Chowdah in honah of a Patriots Monday Night Kickoff.