By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
Week 10 is here and there are some BAD offenses out there.
WEEK 10 – LET’S GET REAL
It’s mid-November, we’re already peaking at the Thanksgiving football spread and I’ve got some fully developed opinions at this point on certain teams and players. As for the dueling (and aging) QBs, it felt like we so desperately wanted to bury Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers simultaneously this season. Brady is in the midst of a rage-fueled, lawyer-filled life struggle for staying on top at age 45 while winning at life, while AR12 seems to be growing increasingly impatient with his teammates and we’re left wondering if there’s any amount of ayahuasca that can tame it.
We’ve also reached that point in the road where teams have to realize they are in a “no recovery” position for their 2022 campaign. Some teams that are absolutely on the ventilator are the Panthers, Raiders, Jaguars, and Colts…and next week that list will double in actuality. For pickers, we’re at the point where motivation becomes an increasing factor week to week – aka “who cares more about actually winning this game.” Which teams are still dialed in and have things to play for? Which should be subject to relegation altogether? Let’s dive into week 10 to explore the possibilities.
Thursday Night Kickoff
Falcons (-3) @ Panthers – Ah, I see we’ve also entered Thursday Night Football dud matchup season as well. These divisional tangles are always hit or miss, and I’m already telling you this is a miss. In the motivation department, you have to wonder if the Panthers are in win-now mode, while the Falcons are shockingly in contention for a division title sitting below .500.
(Extra) Early Slate
Bucs (-2.5) vs Seahawks – The NFL Germany debut is here as Geno Smith and the surprisingly competitive Seahawks try to tame Brady and the Bucs, fresh off of late-game heroics vs the Rams. I’m THIS close to counting out Tom Brady but as a lifelong Pats fan, my leash is much longer than the average football fan. I have that queasy feeling in my stomach that he’s about to rip off a few wins ASAP and it should continue overseas.
Bills (-7.5) vs Vikings – Alright Kirk Cousins, is this for real this time, or are you just yanking our chains? The 7-1 Vikes seem to be firing on all cylinders, but they run into an angry Bills squad fresh off a frustrating loss to the Jets. The see-saw that is NFL betting trends would lead you to believe that Buffalo is due for a big win in this spot.
Cowboys (-5) @ Packers – You know the Aaron Rodgers struggle narrative is real when the Pack are 5-point dogs at Lambeau – a truly jarring betting line. It feels like a sucker play to take the Cowboys but as I stated at the top, I will jump off the Aaron Rodgers cliff way before I hang it up on TB12’s career..when that time comes. The Packers have had so many of these “got to have it “games” and come up short – when will it end?
49ers (-7) vs Chargers – An intriguing AFC West tussle to say the least. Justin Herbert continues to impress and do a lot with not much to work with, but their road in the division is dicey at best – hence the line pitting them as a touchdown underdog. Watch for a sneaky low-scoring game here on SNF.
Night Pick of the Week
Eagles (-10.5) vs Commanders – I think Commanders fans are far more excited about Dan Snyder selling the team over the prospect of playing the unbeaten Eagles Monday Night. Still, I do wonder when the shoe finally drops and we get at a few bad quarters in a row. Not saying I like the Commanders, but I am saying that I had the Texans covering last weekend and maybe 10.5 is too much.
THE “WHO CARES?” GAME
For your boring football Sunday fix, Raiders (-6) vs Colts is absolutely the one to find and drool over. I mean seriously, what is the deal with these two teams? Josh McDaniels came in fully hyped and loaded with talent, just to go start off 2-6? On the other end, the Colts looked lifeless vs The Pats and Sam Ehlinger doesn’t appear to be the Matt Ryan replacement they hoped for. This is a bad watch all around.
WEIRD VIBE PREDICTION OF THE WEEK
Well, I closed my eyes and picked…a loser for the Ouija board random vibe this past Sunday. Since that didn’t work we’ll take this a step in the other direction and bet on the most annoying team out there – the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are 10-point underdogs at Arrowhead, and there’s no world where they should compete, so on that note let’s bet ’em.
WEEK 9 RECAP
Week 9 – I bet two overs and lost them both, and picked 3 sides and won them all. The message is clear, we’re playing ALL SIDES this week. #allsides
Week Eight: 3-2 ATS, Season Overall: 22-24-1 ATS
EARLY WEEK 10 NFL PLAYS FOR ALEX
I feel like a sucker, but I also know how ugly this game could be in Germany. Give me Bucs -2.5 because I’m not QUITE counting him out yet.
As I said, it’s ALL SIDES this week for better or for worse. This may be for worse, but I’ll be the guy who takes the Commanders +10.5.
This is one of those picks I’m so scared of that I like it. Broncos +3 because the Titans are coming off a tough loss and are primed to get picked off in this spot at home.
Another beauty of a game is Steelers vs Saints, and I am very close to burying these teams for the year as well, but not before some home-field magic for Pitt. Give me Steelers +3.
Last but not least, Cowboys -5 is our next test to see if Aaron Rodgers has any magic left in the 2022 season.
Other leans: Giants/Texans Over 39.5, Falcons -3
Not in an NFL pick’em pool yet? Create your own today to get in on the action as the season heats up!
EATS AND DEETS
The best crowd: Easy (and worst pick) – Browns at Dolphin. The dog pound invading Hard Rock should lead to some entertainment and chaos all day long.
Goofiest line: Titans only -3 against the lowly Broncos? That smells.
Simultaneous screen count: It’s bye week season out here…it’s one screen on your game and one on the Redzone for 7 hours of commercial-free football.
Tailgate pick of the week: It might be Turkey Legs season for this and the next few Sundays – if you dare.