Table of Contents
By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
Week 11 is here and the debate intensifies…
WHO’S YOUR #1 (AND YOUR TOP 4)
Week Ten was headlined by two massive duels in the SEC. Georgia started off by proving EXACTLY why they won the championship last season and reminded us who the real #1 still is, and in Death Valley LSU delivered an all-time risk-reward moment and cashed a win against Alabama to storm the field in jubilation. What those results did do is pretty much eliminate the idea of 3 SEC teams making the Four team college football playoff, but it just added even more fuel to the fiery discussion on who’s in, and who’s out.
I’ve been shouting this for weeks, and you’ve seen me CONTINUOUSLY hammer the Georgia Under bet (now 7-2 on the season)…but the Georgia defense is not getting their due respect. Their offense isn’t lighting the world on fire, but the more pertinent question is: what team can score on Georgia, and then also have the defense to keep Stetson Bennett and the Dogs under 21 points? The answer is nobody that I’m seeing, but week 11 and the rest of November could show us a team that’s peaking at the right time to try and take down UGA.
TUNE-IN GAME OF THE WEEK
The best tune-in of week 11 is at The Grove in Oxford…by a nose. This SEC duel became even more fascinating after Alabama did something crazy and lost multiple games in SEC play. We’re in rarified air so anything goes in the SEC West at this point and the Rebels have to recognize that to get it done against Saban and the boys. This matchup features two powerful offenses that have struggled a bit recently, so this might be due for an Over bet and a point explosion! If you’re rooting for “the end” of Alabama, well this just might be your Saturday night toast to it becoming a reality (for now).
THE NIGHTCAP GET-IT-BACK GAME
Last week’s nightcap featuring San Jose State lost by a point…let’s see what other madness I conjured up to hold you captive watching college football late into the night. As I peered to the bottom of the week 11 schedule I noticed a real sleeper in Reno late Saturday featuring Boise State (-21) headed to Nevada for a 10:30 pm ET kick. Boise is the big favorite and this is the perfect game to fall asleep to after you sweep the board with winners during the day games.
WEIRD VIBE FADE OF THE WEEK
I faded the weird vibe YET AGAIN and leaned in on TCU to stay unbeaten, and low and behold they did. Their cover was gutsy to say the least (without their best stuff), and now I face a conundrum. The Unbeaten Horned Frogs come to my neck of the woods in Austin Texas for a college gameday-fueled duel with the Longhorns under the lights at DKR. I would be inclined to land on my hometown Horns, but shockingly THEY are the 7-point favorite at home. So the weird vibe fade rolls on – we’re sticking with TCU to cover the +7…who knows who wins it.
WEEK 10 RECAP – MIXED BAG
The Saturday buffet was another grind and a half for sure. The Georgia Under play was absolutely the play of the day for me and I had that game nailed from top to bottom. Outside of that, we were holding on for dear life and some ACC teams like UNC and Wake really let us down…sigh.
Week Ten: 2-3 ATS, Season Overall: 27-28 ATS
EARLY WEEK 11 PLAYS FOR ALEX
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I’m following the stink this week. Let’s start with Arkansas +3.5 and burst that LSU bubble. Sorry Tigers fans.
One of those OVERS I seem to latch on to annually is Bama/Ole Miss, and since we’re getting a particularly angry Bama I love Over 63 points in this one.
Oh, you think I’m going to stop now? Hell no, not after how correct that UGA defense made me look! We’re back on it – Georgia Under 54.
I don’t bet against the Horns often, but this game will be a nail-biting thriller and no one is separating. I’ll take TCU +7 right now.
Oregon at home is a different animal, and UW’s defense is SHAKY. I’ll take Oregon -12 all day at Autzen.
Here are some other diamonds I’m leaning on early this week:
Ole Miss + 11.5, Baylor -3, UCLA/Arizona Under 77.5
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EATS AND DEETS
The teleport game: I’ll be on the beaches of Florida this week, so no teleport is needed for me but I would tell you to head to Austin for the weekend – should be a doozy in the Big 12 between Texas and TCU.
Goofiest line: LSU is only a 3-point favorite against Arkansas? Seems a bit stinky off of their miracle win over Bama.
Simultaneous screen count: While there are four top-25 matchups, they’re all spread out nicely so it’s a two-screen Saturday.
Tailgate pick of the week: Might be time to do a dry run of those Thanksgiving apps you’re planning on. I’m working some STuffed Mushrooms into my Saturday.