Table of Contents
By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
Some teams are holiday shopping for new personnel by now.
THE TOM BRADY DICHOTOMY
Sure, there were some great finishes in Buffalo, Green Bay, and Chicago on Sunday, but my highlight that will rack my brain forever is a 45-year-old Tom Brady lining up at wideout, slipping and falling just as Leonard Fournette sailed an easy interception. Yes, that really happened in the inaugural Germany game played in Munich. Brady may have snuck the win in the end but that moment will live on social media for longer than Sunday’s result. It’s this weird spot that the GOAT is currently in where he’s being mocked on every corner of social media for his on and off-the-field trouble, but the better in me sees that’s undefeated since the divorce announcement. Tommy – did you bounce back with a new suitor already?! These are questions that need to be asked.
As for the board, we’ve watched the first two months of the season play and have a grip on who’s really bad (more on the bad football later), but who’s on notice for a potential fraud alert? This Bills team is loaded and electric at peak performance, but a couple of scrappy losses and a sore Josh Allen elbow have even the most pessimistic Pats, Fins, or Jets fans thinking the AFC East is far from a done deal. Kirk Cousins is the ultimate fraud, but moments like Sunday keep him off that list for the immediate future? Let’s dig into the week 11 card to decipher who’s a fraud or not.
THE HEADLINERS
Thursday Night Kickoff
(Reminder – Thanksgiving squares are absolutely a thing and we’re just ONE WEEK away from Turkey Day Football. Get your pool started now!)
Packers (-2.5) vs Titans – Coming off of a must-win vs the Cowboys that they got, the Pack seemingly have another game on a quick turnaround to keep their postseason hopes alive. The spread shows you that there’s little faith in AR12 and the pack getting it done again at Lambeau.
Early Slate
Eagles (-9.5) @ Colts – The thriving Eagles versus the reeling Colts. This is one of those classic spots where everything in the front of your brain tells you the Eagles roll, but the back of your brain has the Colts playing their game of the year at the strangest juncture. Expect something weird in this one, certainly in line for an over as well.
Patriots (-3.5) vs Jets – Off of the bye week, these two teams clash 21 days after Zach Wilson’s remarkably sloppy performance at home. I bet things look a lot more polished for the Jets at Gillette, so this truly is a coin-flip game. The old Patriots are a sure thing to sweep the Jets, but the times are changing.
Ravens (-12.5) vs Panthers – This is a goofy line that has you wanting to bet the Panthers off their TNF win last week. You may have to hold your nose and close your eyes as you place that wager, but all it takes is a timely turnover to keep things within two scores.
Late Window
Cowboys (-2) at Vikings – The whole world is riding the Vikings momentum, so why the tight line? I’m chalking it up (STILL) to a lack of belief in Kirk Cousins, or just the concept that water finds its level eventually in life and the NFL? Regardless, the line smells and the Cowboys should feel good about where it is set.
Night Pick of the Week
Chiefs (-3.5) vs Chargers – Whenever these two teams get together everyone loves to rush and bet the over, so I’ll probably fade the public just like I successfully did for the season opener in week 1. Watch the line movement skyrocket as the week progresses, but the defenses know what they are up against.
THE “WHO CARES?” GAME
This was an easy one to GPS – take me to Houston for the 1-7 Texans hosting the 4-5 Commanders, whose season highlight is their disgraced owner finally bending over to sell the team away. While there are glimmers of hope for the team based on their win-loss record, don’t let it fool you. I’m sure the Commanders will find a way to blow this one or keep it way too close by their own doing.
WEIRD VIBE PREDICTION OF THE WEEK
Jags +10 at Arrowhead was weird the whole afternoon until it wasn’t and it pushed right at +10. Quite the strange ride if you were on that bet. This week we’ll have to stay ugly with the vibe pick, right? Well, there’s nothing weirder than backing the Panthers +12.5 on the road. Hold your nose and hope for Lamar Jackson fumbles.
WEEK 10 RECAP
Played all sides in week 10 and went 2-2 with MNF pending late. It did feel good to lean in on some sides and hit them accordingly, but there’s still work to be done this fall. Overall, I’ll take another week of treading water but we need to start swimming eventually…
Week Ten: 2-2 ATS, Season Overall: 24-26-1 ATS
EARLY WEEK 11 NFL PLAYS FOR ALEX
Starting off the 1 pm ET games by fading a couple of offenses that are due to cool down, it’s Under 49.5 in the Bears/Falcons game.
On the contrary, I think we see a lot more production from the Jets and Pats than their first meetup, so we’re going Over 39 points there.
Lions +3.5 seems quite stinky, but if there’s a team that could find a little meaningless late-season lightning, It’s Detroit.
The Vikings have to have a letdown spot after the craziness of their win in Buffalo, so we’ll fade the public and take Cowboys -2 before the line moves outside of a field goal.
An all-time bad football game will be just that and nothing else. Don’t bother watching, just bet Under 41 in Texans/Commanders and thank me later.
Other leans: Patriots -3.5, Chiefs/Chargers Under the total
Not in an NFL pick’em pool yet? Create your own today to get in on the action as the season heats up!
EATS AND DEETS
The best crowd: Easy – Browns at Bills, a meeting of the two sloppiest and most electric fan bases.
Goofiest line: Giants only a field goal favorite over the 3-6 Lions? Smell alert.
Simultaneous screen count: Two screens, and now is the time to decide if you’re a Hanson or Siciliano guy.
Tailgate pick of the week: Next week is the absurdly large Turkey rolls, so this week let’s go with wings on the grill.
