Table of Contents
By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
AWARD SEASON BETTING IS BACK
The turn of the calendar to the New Year signifies that awards season is upon us, where we pause to recognize the greatest of 2022 from all forms of entertainment. Positioned perfectly on a football-free night this Tuesday is the kickoff to awards season in the Golden Globes, which recognize both American and International film and television. It’s like the NBA and NHL are holding their awards ceremonies on the same night in the same place, all under one roof.
For us degens and sharps alike, it also presents a prime opportunity for betting Hollywood in a unique way, and there’s nothing like cashing some tickets as your winner makes their way to the stage. Suddenly the unraveling of the envelope feels like a snap, hold and kick in overtime. This is just the beginning of Awards season as we’ll crescendo from Globes to Grammys, SAGs to Critics, and wrap it all up with the Oscars being handed out on March 12th. With that, let’s get to Tuesday night’s biggest categories and where the money lies:
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Best Actor – Drama
This is undoubtedly the category that Austin Butler (-175) is due to win. The young breakout star has been the resounding favorite since these odds were released in the fall and hasn’t shifted very much. While Hollywood vet Brendan Fraser delivered a noteworthy performance in “The Whale” and is the second favorite at +125 odds, this feels like an appropriate moment to place the crown on a young Hollywood star in the making.
Alex’s Play: Austin Butler -175
Best Actress – Drama
Cate Blanchet is an Australian and worldwide icon in acting. She’s been down this road and captured multiple Oscars along the way, and is listed as a strong favorite at -250 to win for her fascinating role in “TAR.” The second favorite in this category is Michelle Williams at +250 from “The Fabelmans” which we’ll get to more about later. This play intrigues me mainly because Williams is 0/4 in Oscars nominations, so if you’re looking for a beloved actress who’s due to win and are looking to ride an underdog, this could be a good spot.
Alex’s Play: Michelle Williams +250
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
On the lighter side of cinema, Colin Farrell is the biggest favorite of the night in this category for “The Banshees of Insherin” and comes at a whopping price of -800, meaning you would need to bet $80 just to win $10. With such minute value, it’s hard to make any sort of play in this category rendering it virtually unbeatable, unless Farrell is about to get the snub of the century. Daniel Craig at +500 is the second favorite for “Glass Onion.”
Alex’s Play: Stay Away
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Similar to the previous category, we have a prohibitive favorite at -800 in Michelle Yeoah from “Everything All at Once.” If you’ve got the bankroll to pick these ALMOST sure thing bets, have at it but this appears to be another stay away. If you’re feeling frisky, Margot Robbie’s performance in “Babylon” is the second choice to win at +425 odds. This is one spot where I’ll take a lotto ticket.
Alex’s Play: Margot Robbie +425
Best Actor – Television Drama
This one is near and dear to my heart as I’m a “Better Call Saul” Stan who sadly wasn’t super enamored with the final season. Regardless, his performance was captivating throughout the series, and star Bob Odenkirk is the -250 favorite. Adam Scott from “Severance” is the runner-up favorite at +180 while Jeff Bridges is third for his role in “Old Man” at +600. I have to lean on Saul Goodman in this one.
Alex’s Play: Bob Odenkirk -250
Best Actress – Television Drama
In terms of Twitter buzz, Zendaya’s performance in “Euphoria” would make her a -800 favorite and a no-doubter, but the lean toward the popularity of “The Crown” brings her odds down significantly. While Zendaya’s performance may be the best, the undeniable buzz of the series about the royals may sway the Academy to get Imelda Staunton on stage – she’s the second favorite at +250.
Alex’s Play: Imelda Staunton +250
Best Actor – Television Comedy
This is unofficially the “group of death” or the superteam category to tie in a sports analogy. An absolutely stacked list of nominees from Bill Hader to Danny Glover, and Martin Short and Steve Martin…and yet none of them will win. The breakout star here and runaway favorite is Jeremy Allen White (formerly of Shameless) for his role in “The Bear,” Anyone who’s in the service industry understands the wizardry in this show, and his praises will be sung come Tuesday night.
Alex’s Play: Jeremy Allen White -300
Best Actress – Television Comedy
This is arguably the biggest toss-up category of the night, featuring a battle between “Abbott Elementary” star Quinta Brunson (-190) and Jenna Ortega from “Wednesday” at +125. There’s been more movement in the odds on this category, and both series are buzzing at the perfect time. While Abbott has had its share of award ceremony moments already, the internet buzz around Ortega’s performance is all the rage and I’m leaning toward it taking her over the top.
Alex’s Play: Jenna Ortega +125
Best Drama Picture
Now to the big ones…while “The Fabelmans” is the movie to take in this awards season for the buffs out there, but a slew of blockbuster box office hits the trail in this category. “Top Gun: Maverick” was my favorite movie theater experience of 2022 and the highest-grossing movie of the year. Is that plus-star power enough to get Top Gun into the clubhouse as a +325 underdog? It would sure make for a great Tom Cruise speech but I’ll pass on that bet.
Alex’s Play: The Fabelmans -160
Best Picture Musical/Comedy
This is a fascinating finish to the night, as both favorites “Everything All at Once” (-300) and “The Banshees of Insherin” (+160) will likely both have the best actress and best actor winners, so who wins the rubber match here for Best Picture? Personally, I tend to lean on recency bias here, and with the juicy odds of +160 for Banshees, I can’t resist a surprise pick here.
Alex’s Play: The Banshees of Insherin +160
Best Drama Television Series
For the Television headlining awards, don’t overthink it. Hollywood loves a good ending, and Better Call Saul going out in style with winning this Best Series award is too fitting. Expect immediate clamoring for more Breaking Bad spinoffs the morning after. The odds of Better Call Saul (-105) defeating “Severance” (+220) and “The Crown” +450 have wavered slightly, but not enough to keep me away:
Alex’s Play: Better Call Saul -105
Best Musical/Comedy Television Series
Like I teased earlier, we’ll get that additional “Abbott Elementary” on stage moment of the night, it will just be with the full cast instead of Quinta Brunson by herself. Abbott takes this category down as a -200 betting favorite with little debate from the Academy.
Alex’s Play: Abbott Elementary -200
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