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    Entering 2023, the Detroit Lions are the most hyped team in the NFC North and perhaps the entire league. But I just don’t know. There’s good indicators out there that this division may be a dog fight to the end. Even the data models seem to think so. 

    According to pre season projections, only about 1.5 games separate the first and fourth ranked teams for total wins in the NFC North, and no team in the division registers a playoff probability (POP) over 58% (elsewhere in the conference, Dallas, Philly and the 49ers all have a POP of 69% or greater). 

    So is this the Lions division to lose or is the hype just that? To find out, let’s reference each team’s 2023 Strength of Schedule (SoS), Projected Wins (PW) and Playoff Probability (POP) as look-ahead’ metrics that will help us determine how the NFC North may play out in 2023. 

    Chicago Bears

    SoS: 6th easiest, PW: 7.6, POP 34.8% 

    QB Justin Fields showed explosive playmaking ability in 2022 but otherwise the Bears did not have much on offer. To shore things up, Chicago had an active offseason, signing and drafting players on both sides of the ball. If Fields can find his rhythm as a passer with newcomer D.J. Moore and the rest of the WR room, this offense projects stronger in ‘23, and should be able to move the ball more consistently. 

    The defense added LB muscle through the trade market but the lack of a pass rush may still be a problem. That said, even with the sixth easiest schedule in the league in ‘23, the Bears PW total of 7.6 is 3.6 greater than their actual wins last season, which seems high. I think Chicago will be better this season but I doubt we’ll see them in the playoffs. A good early indicator for this team will come at home in Week 1 versus the Packers — the current line is Bears -3.0, which I think indicates what oddsmakers are expecting from the Bears to start the season. 

    Detroit Lions

    SoS: 11th easiest, PW: 9.1, POP: 57.6% 

    All the hype surrounding what the 2023 Detroit Lions ‘can be’ comes with an enormous amount of pressure. Let’s not forget that this is a team that missed the playoffs last season while fielding one of the league’s worst defenses. That said, the Lions were so efficient on offense in ‘22, and so effective at rising in key moments, that it’s impossible not to give Detroit an edge in ‘23. I’m just not sure how much better the Lions got versus their divisional rivals in the off season.

    The secondary certainly improved with the signing of Cam Sutton, but perhaps not enough, and the word ‘reach’ has been bandied about quite a bit in reference to the Lion’s draft, which featured a RB and an off-ball LB in Round 1, while the team remains yet thin in the WR corps (a situation made no easier by suspensions). The OL is legit and Jared Goff has proven he can be a winning QB in Detroit. The big difference in ‘23 is that the Lions will surprise no-one and will be challenged early by quality teams (@KC, vs. SEA to start the season). What happens if and when the hype bubble bursts? I don’t mind the Lions’ PW total of 9.1 or POP of 57.6%, I just don’t think they are a shoo-in for the NFC North crown.

    Green Bay Packers

    SoS: 14th easiest, PW: 7.7, POP 35.2% 

    It’s pretty simple in Green Bay this season. Aaron Rodgers is out, Jordan Love is in, and the WR room is the cheapest in the league: there are nine rookies between 17 camp WRs and TEs. That said, Green Bay’s RB duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon can rush, catch and pass-block productively — a great blessing for a young quarterback. Green Bay’s defense also looks pretty good. Kenny Clark will need more help in the middle of the DL and the situation at Safety is a bit of a question mark, but the Edge looks good if Gary is healthy and the CB trio of Alexander, Stokes and Douglas is excellent.

    The popular pick is to project a slide-back year for the Packers but I’m not sold. This team was 8-9 last year and missed the playoffs in 2023; some might say the only reason the Packers did that well was because of Aaron Rodgers. I am here to tell you, I watched every minute of the Packers last season and the reason they did that poorly was because of Aaron Rodgers. I don’t see a slide-back for this team at all. I see change, I see evolution, I see growing pains, but slide-back? No way. If Jordan Love is even average in 2023 the Packers have a good shot to do better than their projected win total of 7.7.

    Minnesota Vikings

    SoS: 8th most difficult, PW: 8.6, POP: 48.8% 

    The Vikings ran away with the division in ‘22, going 13-4, but looked very vulnerable at times, including taking losses versus the Lions and Packers in the second half of the season. Kirk Cousins is statistically pretty good but yet to win big for the Vikes. It’s next man up at the RB position after Dalvin Cook left town, while WR1 hopes Jordan Addison or someone else can develop fast enough to take some of the double teams away. The defense was just bad in ‘22. Did it get any better this off season?

    Well, the Vikings have five cornerbacks on their roster who will be either a rookie, first- or second-year player in 2023. The team added a couple guys to the defensive through free agency and the draft, but they are not world beaters (DL Dean Lowry, DE Marcus Davenport, CB Byron Murphy). On paper, I’m not sure how much this adds up to. At a projected win total of 8.6 games, the Vikes are predicted to slip by more than 4 games versus 2022. That said, they still get a POP of almost 49% – second best in the division – because they are the defending champs.

    Wrap-up

    In the competitive NFC North, I perceive of the Bears as an outlier with the chance to spoil a division rival’s playoff chances come December. Green Bay is remodeling, not rebuilding, and may surprise. Detroit is the hottest team in the league entering 2023, making them the favorites to win the division. That leaves Minnesota in the role of reigning champ that hardly anyone seems to believe can defend the NFC North title in ‘23.  

    I don’t see anyone running away with this division in 2023 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see somebody win it with an 11-6 record. There’s no question that H2H performance will determine playoff positioning in the north. To that end, I’ll pick Detroit to win the division and list Green Bay as my dark horse. The Bears aren’t there yet and I don’t believe the Vikes can repeat. I think only Detroit makes the playoffs and they lose in the first round. 

    NFL FAQs

    How do you play football survival pool?

    Players pick one team each week they think will win the game outright. They may only pick a team ONCE per season, meaning you can't pick the same team twice in one season. If their pick is correct, the player survives another week and continues to play. An incorrect pick eliminates the player from the contest entirely. This is sometimes called an elimination or suicide pool. The last person standing wins.

    How to make a football pool?

    A football pool generally requires the creation of a shareable spreadsheet (like Google Sheets) so that members may pick teams. Then depending on the game type, creators must use several kinds of formulas (e.g. CountIF), data validation, and conditional formatting. Or, you can just use football pool hosting service like RunYourPool where we do all the work for you!

    How to run a weekly football pool?

    In order to run a football pool, you must first crown yourself as Pool Commissioner. Begin by picking a game type like Survivor or Pick'Em. You'll want to establish rules before inviting friends, family, and colleagues to join. As commissioner, you make the rules and also need to enforce them equally and fairly.

    What is a football survivor pool?

    In a Football Survivor Pool, players choose one team weekly they think will win. Usually, a team can be picked one time per season. Picks are made "straight up," no spreads necessary. If a pick is correct, members survive another week. An incorrect pick eliminates the player, unless a mulligan is used.

    How does a football pool work?

    Football pools are games of skill played among a group of people. There are a variety of pool types to fit every players needs, from casual to competitive. Pool commissioners can set up pools manually, or use a hosting service like RunYourPool whiel still customizing your own settings. Some examples include NFL Squares, NFL Survivor, NFL Pick 'Em, and Playoff Brackets.

    What is an NFL pickem pool?

    In an NFL pick’em pool, simply pick the outcome of each NFL game throughout the season. You can pick straight up winners or losers, or pick each game against the spread.

    How to play a football pool?

    The way one plays a football pool varies on the game type. For example, in Survivor, you pick one team to win each week and can't pick that team again. Guess wrong and you lose. Another example is Pick'em Pools in which you simply pick every game each week.

    How does a fantasy football pool work?

    Fantasy football pools don’t involve a traditional fantasy football draft. You can have as many members in your pool as you’d like, meaning no more 12 or 14 team limits! You pick a new lineup of players each week, and once you use a player once, you can’t use them again for the rest of the season.

    What is a fantasy football pool?

    A fantasy football pool is similar to a traditional fantasy football league but without the draft. Pick a new lineup each week, and once you use a player, you can’t use them for the rest of the season. Your players will receive points based on their in-game stats, and the member with the most points at the end of the season is the winner.

    What is a football pool?

    "Football Pool" is a broad term for a group of people competitively guessing the outcome of one or more football games. There are many types of formats, each assigning winners differently. They can be played informally between friends or through a more formalized system. They are often considered a great alternative to fantasy football given the ease of playing, although there are fantasy football pools as well.

    How do football pool squares work?

    There are different kinds of football square pools. Most have a 10x10 grid with one team for the rows and columns. In an attempt to win, participants select a square where they believe the last digit number of each team's score will intersect at the end of each quarter, and the game's end.

    How do you play football squares pools?

    To play a football squares pool, you're going to want to pick the squares with the best odds. As winners are determined by the point totals at the end of each quarter, try to consider options where scores are most common. Some of the most popular squares include 7-3, 7-0, 7-7, and 0-0. Numbers divisible by seven are good starting points.

    How many squares in a football pool?

    In a traditional football squares pool, a grid is sectioned off into 100 squares with 10 columns and 10 rows. This accounts for a direct relationship between each possible digit from 0 to 9 on both the X and Y axis. For smaller square grids like 5x5, multiple numbers can be assigned to each column and row.

    How to play squares football pools?

    Football squares are played by creating a grid, in which Team 1 takes the column and Team 2 the rows. In some cases, participants may claim as many squares as they like. In others, commissioners limit them to one. At the quarter times and end of the game, the winner is decided at the point the scores final digit intersect.

    What is a football squares pool?

    Also called Grid, Block, or Box Pools, Football Squares Pools can be played with any single game, but are most popular during the Super Bowl. Pool members claim squares on a 25, 50, or 100-square grid by putting their information in the square. Game scores are matched to the winning square(s), usually with winners being determined every quarter.

    How to read a football pool sheet?

    In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.

    How do you play football credits pool?

    In the credits format, all players start with the same number of credits. Players make picks each week by risking a certain number of credits on games, assigning more credits to the picks with a higher confidence level. Members receive double the credits risked for each win. The member with the most credits at the end of the season wins.

    What is a football credits pool?

    In Football Credits Pools, players start with the same number of credits. They then make picks each week by risking a number of credits on games, assigning more to the picks they have more confidence in getting right. Members double credits risked for each win. The member with the highest credits at the end of the season wins.

    How to run a football pool?

    How you decide to run a football pool varies greatly depending on the game type. In each case, however, you'll want to determine the rules and settings before you begin inviting members to join you. You'll want to clearly establish how score will be kept, how tiebreakers work, and how winners are decided before anything else.

    How do you play football confidence pool?

    A football confidence pool is played straight up, not with a point spread. Not only do members pick the winning teams, they must back up their picks by giving them a relative confidence ranking. Your score reflects the number of confidence points given to winning teams. So if your confidence for a team winning is '1', then you can only win one point at most. If your confidence for a team winning is '5', then you can win five points for a win. The member with the most credits at the end wins.

    What is a football confidence pool?

    "Football Confidence Pool" refers to how you rank the teams that you think will win each week. For example, in the NFL, there are often 16 games weekly. In this scenario, you would rank each game from 16 to 1, based on the your confidence in that team winning.

    How do you play football margin pool?

    Margin pools are an NFL pool format that rewards members for picking a winning team each week. Pool commissioners can decide whether they award points equal to a winning teams margin of victory or the point spread for that game. When a commissioner chooses the point spread option, this format is often referred to as an NFL Underdog Pool.

    What is a football margin pool?

    In a Football Margin Pool, you are awarded points for picking a winning team. Pool commissioners get to decide whether they award points equal to a winning teams margin of victory or the point spread for that game. The player with the most points at the end of the season wins.

    How do you play football 33 point pool?

    The football 33 pool format is a casual pool where members are each assigned an NFL team (these pools are 32 members max, as there are 32 NFL teams). Members win when their team scores 33 points. Options for changing the target score, or having the closest to the target win each week is also available.

    What is a football 33 point pool?

    In the football 33 pool format, each member is assigned a unique NFL team (32 members max). A member will win when their team scores 33 points. This is a casual pool where you can change the target score or the option to have the closest to the target that week win.

    How to run a weekly football pool?

    In order to run a football pool, you must first crown yourself as Pool Commissioner. Begin by picking a game type like Survivor or Pick'Em. You'll want to establish rules before inviting friends, family, and colleagues to join. As commissioner, you make the rules and also need to enforce them equally and fairly.

    What is an NFL Playoff bracket pool?

    NFL Playoff Bracket pools are simple NFL pool formats where members pick every round of the playoffs before they start in an attempt to predict every match up correctly. It's optional to configure a multiplier for each round, or add a tiebreaker option of total points in the Super Bowl.

    How to make a football pool?

    A football pool generally requires the creation of a shareable spreadsheet (like Google Sheets) so that members may pick teams. Then depending on the game type, creators must use several kinds of formulas (e.g. CountIF), data validation, and conditional formatting. Or, you can just use football pool hosting service like RunYourPool where we do all the work for you!

    How to set up a football pool?

    To set up a football pool, you'll need to first choose a pool type like Survivor or Pick'em. Then, you'll need to set the ground rules. As pool commissioner, you'll enforce these rules and make sure the game runs smoothly throughout the season. Many commissioners use pool hosting sites like RunYourPool to make it easier and more engaging.

    What is a football power ranking playoff pool?

    In a power ranking playoff pool, members rank all 12 NFL teams competing in the playoffs from strongest (12 points) to weakest (1 point). Picks are made only ONCE before any games begin. Members are awarded the number of points assigned to a team when they win. Commissioners can optionally set up a point multiplier for each playoff round.

    What is a football confidence pool?

    "Football Confidence Pool" refers to how you rank the teams that you think will win each week. For example, in the NFL, there are often 16 games weekly. In this scenario, you would rank each game from 16 to 1, based on the your confidence in that team winning. This is similar to the Playoff Pool Power Ranking, just less teams.

    How to run a football pool?

    How you decide to run a football pool varies greatly depending on the game type. In each case, however, you'll want to determine the rules and settings before you begin inviting members to join you. You'll want to clearly establish how score will be kept, how tiebreakers work, and how winners are decided before anything else.

    What is a football playoff precision pool?

    In a playoff precision pool, members attempt to pick the winner of every playoff game each week. You can decide if it’s straight up or on a point spread picks, but point totals are also added. Points are awarded for correct picks AND for how close to the correct combined point total they were.

    How to read a football pool sheet?

    In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.

    What is a Super Bowl Prop Bets Pool?

    A Super Bowl Prop Bet Pool is a fun and thrilling way to compete against friends and family during the big game! It's a simple questionaire of prop betting questions revolving around the Super Bowl, and whoever earns the most points based off correct answers wins!

    How does a Super Bowl Prop Bets Pool work?

    Pool members simply fill out a wide range of prop questions, each question worth a different value. Commissioners decide on the point value for each question, along with the amount of questions. Whichever member earns the most points based on corret answers wins the pool.

    What is a football Super Bowl Squares pool?

    Also called Grid, Block, or Box Pools, Football Squares Pools can be played with any single game, but are most popular during the Super Bowl. Pool members claim squares on a 25, 50, or 100-square grid by putting their information in the square. Game scores are matched to the winning square(s), usually with winners being determined every quarter.

    What is a prop bet?

    Prop bets are any sort of pick or wager on a game that has nothing to do with the score or the final score outcome. Props can range from game types, to team types and even player types - such as who will score the game's first and last touchdowns? Other props, such as novelty or exotic, feature bets on things such as the coin flip or the Super Bowl Halftime Show.

    How to read a football pool sheet?

    In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.

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