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The NFC South is not great in that nobody seems to want to win the division. No team is above .500, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) leading the way over the remaining teams in the division, the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints. Tom Brady is old and declining. All the other QBs are young and developing. It’s just not entertaining football.
Nobody is losing that badly (the average margin of loss across the division is about 2.3 points per game), but nobody is winning much either (Tampa Bay is the worst team in the NFL ATS, while the NFC South is a collective 12-21-1 outside the division). Nobody from the NFC South is getting in on a wild card. The Bucs will probably trip in as the division winner.
That said, it doesn’t mean there is no opportunity to be found in Week 15 odds and the rest of the way along the 2022 NFL calendar in the NFC South. Here’s a team-by-team look at how to turn lemons into lemonade betting and winning in the worst division in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7 overall, 3-9-1 ATS, .451 remaining SoS)
TB has winnable remaining games against the Cardinals, Falcons, and Panthers (who are a combined 20-18 ATS and losing by an average of 3.3 points per game). NFL games tend to get made around the 3.0 to 3.5 mark. The Bucs, with a healthy Tom Brady, will make a decent ATS play in games with a spread of less than a field goal.
Carolina Panthers (5-8 overall, 7-6 ATS, .404 remaining SoS)
The Panthers remaining opponents – the Saints, Steelers, Lions, and Buccaneers – all have losing records. The Lions (9-4) are an ATS beast. NO, PIT and TB are a combined 14-23-2 ATS — so there are not many princesses at this ball. The one place that the Panthers shine on the spreadsheet is as a ‘dog (7-3). When you see that ‘dog bet on Carolina between now and the end of 2022, take it.
Atlanta Falcons (5-8 overall, 7-6 ATS, .451 remaining SoS)
The Falcons remaining opponents include New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Baltimore (a combined 23-27 overall and 19-30-1 ATS). The Falcons are the strongest ATS in conference games (6-3), which sets up the Saints, Bucs, and Cardinals as noteworthy matchups as the 2022 season winds down. In particular, circle the game against the Cardinals as a possible ATS play for the Falcons.
New Orleans Saints (4-9 overall, 5-8 ATS, .519 remaining SoS)
The Saints have games left against Philly (take the Eagles to cover), Atlanta, Carolina, and Cleveland — a combined 27-25 overall. NO’s remaining opponents perform pretty true ATS versus their actual record. If you need a silver lining to justify betting on the Saints, they are 5-3 ATS after a loss. If you want the smart money advice though, take any remaining 2022 Saints opponent with a superior record, straight up on the money line.
