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It’s Week 15 in the National Football League and all teams in the NFC East division are still in the playoff hunt. With several key matchups remaining and NFC wildcards very much up in the air, which of the Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders, and Giants have beneficial matchups remaining? Below, we dig into the numbers to help you find an edge.
Philadelphia Eagles (12-1 overall, 8-5 ATS, .471 remaining SoS)
Philadelphia is the best team in the NFL in terms of overall record (12-1), and third best overall in the NFL Against the Spread (ATS) at 8-5, with a weak Strength of Schedule (SoS) ahead that features games against the Bears, Cowboys, Saints and Giants (combined 24-27-1 straight up, 27-24-1 ATS).
The Eagles average +3.4 points versus the spread and a 10.6-point Margin of Victory (MoV), the best in the NFL. This week’s tilt versus the lowly Bears merits a parlay: Eagles straight up and ATS. If you want a player prop to add to that, look at Justin Fields under 70.5 yards rushing — no QB has rushed for more than 66 yards versus the Eagles all season.
Dallas Cowboys (10-3 overall, 8-5 ATS, .606 remaining SoS)
Dallas is on a hot streak. The Cowboys have won four in a row over Minnesota, the Giants, Indianapolis, and Houston. But the road ahead is challenging, with games remaining against the Jaguars, Eagles, Titans, and Commanders — that’s two division rivals and an AFC contender that are a combined 30-20-2 and 24-25-3 ATS.
Statistically speaking, the ‘as of this writing’ Week 15 spread of DAL -4.5 vs. JAX is a great bet. If I wanted to parlay, I would try and find a player prop cuff on Tony Pollard with an anytime score, as the Jaguars have been slipping on run defense lately, giving up 15 yards more per game on average than the rest of 2022, and Pollard has nine rushing Tuddies already on the season.
Washington Commanders (7-5-1 overall, 7-5-1 ATS, .606 remaining SoS)
The Commanders are an odd team. Their overall and ATS records are identical (7-5-1). They have no real statistical superstars, but rather a bunch of guys, they are so-so in the red zone on either side of the ball and they’re, you know, Washington — put it all together and you defy the traditional script of a contender.
The Commanders also have a difficult remaining SoS, with games against division rivals Dallas and the Giants, NFC West leader San Fransisco, and Cleveland still to go. Remember, the Giants, 49ers, and Cowboys are ATS beasts with playoff hopes of their own to fight for. Net-net? Go D.C., boo Dan Snyder, and take every Commanders’ opponent except the Browns ATS through the end of the 2022 season.
New York Giants (7-5-1 overall, 9-4 ATS, .654 remaining SoS)
What do you make of this team? Awesome rushing when it’s on, a deep ball threat, great ATS, but struggling for a playoff berth. With the second toughest remaining SoS (tough luck, Chicago), featuring battles against the Eagles, Minnesota, Washington and Jeff Saturday’s Colts, the Giants have a rough path to a wild card.
If the Giants do stumble, look for a quick bounce back. The G-Men are 4-0 ATS after a loss and 3-1 ATS as an away team, with three road games remaining. So, if you bet the Giants ATS every week until the end of the 2022 NFL regular season, the numbers say you will come out ahead. Just don’t ask me to guarantee Ws.
Want more insights? Check out What’s good ATS in the NFC South.