By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
Week 4…it’s already time for a London game?!
Week 4 – QB’s On Full Display
Week 3 continued to confirm that the NFL is a league of have and have nots at the
quarterback position. The teams that have their guy know it and are equipped for the
long haul, and the rest of us “have nots” wonder what the next draft class of QB’s looks
like and how many losses it takes to get a top 10 pick. QB’s will be the main attraction
even more so in week 4, with matchups like Bills/Ravens, Jags/Eagles,
Broncos/Raiders and Chiefs/Bucs all showcasing the upper tier QB talent and where it
gets you. Me, I’m just wondering if Brian Hoyer can be ½ as good as Cooper Rush.
Thursday Night Kickoff
Bengals (-3.5) vs Dolphins – A classic trap, let-down game game spot for the Dolphins,
who are flying high at 3-0 and atop the AFC East. The Bengals look questionable but
snagged their first W against the Jets, and now they host arguably the hottest offense in
the NFL through three weeks? Miami is coming off a full fledged effort Sunday to beat
the Bills, so you have to wonder if this is the natural stoppage to their winning streak to
start the season.
(Extra) Early Slate
Vikings (-2.5) vs Saints – I omitted the Vikings’ role as “road” favorite here because this
bad boy is coming at you TOP OF THE MORNIN’ (9:30am et) to you from London. The
early kick off from the U.K. is an unofficial sign that we’re into the teeth of the NFL
calendar, and it pits the Vikings who will never do anything great with Kirk Cousins
against the cluelessness and mystique of Jameis Winston. Truly an NFL London game
that could produce some early morning chuckles. 44 points sounds like a mountain to
climb as these London games tend to lack offensive firepower.
Giants (-3.5) vs Bears – In a surprising twist of fate, both the G Men and the Bears find
themselves 2-1 through three games. Justin Fields and Daniel Jones have done enough
of the right things to prevent losses for their teams, and this another tils where points
will be hard to come by.
Eagles (-6.5) vs Jaguars – This matchup intrigues me because both teams are well
ahead of schedule in 2022 already. The step up that Jalen Hurts has taken, along with
the surprising outputs from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense are both
commendable. This game wreaks of a Jags letdown on the road, but is Philly really a 4-
Bills (-3.5) @ Ravens – Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson, a yin and yang QB matchup if
there ever was one. One (Allen) prefers to launch it with hsi cannon of an arm but can
take off if prompted and turn into a fullback. The other (Jackson) prefers to run rampant
to every corner of the field, but with the flick of a wrist won’t object to tearing your heart
out. Looking at the offenses’ performances last week alone, you get the idea that the
Bills are due for an explosion, and the Ravens may have wasted some plays last
weekend that they’ll want on Sunday. Thinking Buffalo bounces back at home here.
Packers (-10.5) vs Patriots – A crippled Patriots team with questions galore is likely to
start Brian Hoyer in Lambeau field – a daunting task to say the least. If myself and
Patriots fans have any wishes in this game it’s for 8 minute drives and some tip ball
interceptions from Aaron Rodgers. Nothing short of that keeps the Pats in this one, but
we may be looking at under 41 points if New England can play keepaway.
Night Pick of the Week
Chiefs (-2.5) @ Bucs – Mahomes vs Brady in Tampa (we think), a city that just went
through it with Hurricane Ian. A matchup of the most recent of Tom Brady’s seven rings,
where he tamed the Chiefs and the D did work against Mahomes. This is truly a coin flip
and likely comes down to the final possession. Going to be hard to stay away from
betting the over as well!
The “Who Cares?” Game
This week we head to Detroit where the Lions (-5.5) host the Seahawks. Both teams are
1-2, both comfortably in that “they’re not THAT bad” category, but neither team has the
guy at QB and that’s apparent through three games. Jared Goff is exactly how you last
remember him, and the Geno Smith storyline doesn’t possess the warmth it did back in
week 1. Just hope for a few redzone highlights to remind us this game happens.
Weird Vibe Prediction Of The Week
If there’s nothing else you can count on in this crazy mixed-up world, the one old
reliable is my weird vibes pick. YET AGAIN, my spidey senses were tingling at the
thought of an Over/Under of 47.5 in D.C. for the Commanders/Eagles matchup. These
division rivals know each well and it showed, final score 24-8 and we cruised to a
victory. The game was an absolute bore just like I forecasted. This week, we’re doubling
down in Vegas. The fact that the Raiders are 0-3 is by nature weird, so I’m feeling some
weird scores and crooked numbers on the board at Allegiant. This game probably soars
over 45-50 points, Russell Wilson starts cooking and we have a shootout Las Vegas
tried to get win #1.
Week 3 Recap
We take 4-1 weeks all day, and this past Sunday was no exception to that rule. The
Bears eked their cover out with a buzzer beating field goal, the word vibe was spot on
yet again in DC, the Panthers finally came through for me and the Broncos covered +2
on Sunday Night football. The lone loss was the surprisingly low total in Brady vs.
Rodgers, but it’s a minor blip on the radar for another winning week! Cheers.
Week Three: 4-1 ATS, Season Overall: 11-6 ATS
Week 4 NFL Plays For Alex
To move the chains early on week 4, I’ll start betting AGAINST Kirk Cousins. I’m taking
the liberty and saying the London tilt will play like a prime time game, which he
absolutely stinks in. The Saints +2.5 or even 3 and don’t be shy with it.
In the Jalen Hurts vs. Trveor Lawrence battle, I’m betting on the defenses instead. Let’s
go Under 48 total points in Philly.
Though I love me a good Texans bet, Herbert will feel comfy in the Houston dome and
throw it well enough to bounce back. I’ll take the Chargers -5 in a squeamish game.
I have the Vegas antics setting in fully on Sunday, and sticking with the weird vibes
predictions trending upwards, we’re having ourselves a shootout – Raiders/Broncos
Lastly I’ll finish with the 49ers and Jimmy G owning the Rams, cause recently they kinda
sorta do (and did last year in this same matchup). Let’s go with the 49ers -2.5 at
home in the division on MNF.
Other random leans: Patriots/Packers Over 40.5, Vikings/Saints Under 44, Bengals -4.
Eats And Deets
The best crowd: I have to go to London, despite the lackluster matchup. Who
wouldn’t have Haggis and Fish n’ Chips with their NFL football?
Goofiest line: Packers -10.5 vs. Patriots. I mean…I get it but it still shocks my
eyes to look at.
Simultaneous screen count: Two screens, and Scott Hanson’s Red Zone if you
can manage it.
Tailgate pick of the week: It’s fall, break out the smoker and the pumpkin beers.